President Obama and congressional Democrats got a huge gift yesterday from the Congressional Budget Office, which declared that their health-care overhaul would do everything they said it would — cover 95 percent of Americans at a cost of $940 billion while cutting $138 billion from the deficit.
It comes with a free lunch, too.
As one Republican noted, “Only in Washington could someone say that spending a trillion dollars will save the taxpayers money.”
But even as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn pronounced themselves “giddy” over those numbers, they conveniently ignored CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf’s warning that his report was only “a preliminary estimate.”
“The agency,” he said, “has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal.” He noted a need for “further review . . . of the budgetary projections.”
And the bill — on which the House expects to vote come Sunday — continues to be larded not only with state-specific pork (remember the “Cornhusker Kickback”?) but with fiscal gimmicks, too.
For example, as Daniel Foster notes on National Review Online, nearly half of the supposed deficit savings comes from projected increases in payroll tax revenue in the expectation that wages will rise. (Assuming the unemployed ever find jobs, that is.)
But that tax is meant to ensure the solvency of cash-strapped Social Security — not pare down the federal deficit.
And because the projections cover a 10-year period (and even beyond) and economic conditions have a way of changing rapidly, no one can be sure just how much this bill really will cost.
(Forget the free lunch!)
But Pelosi isn’t taking any chances: With Obama’s blessing, she’s still talking about using the constitutionally dubious “deem and pass” ploy that would allow her frightened members to avoid actually having to vote on the toxic Senate version of the bill.
Indeed, the House’s Democratic majority, by a 222-203 vote, yesterday defeated a GOP proposal that would have forced an up-or-down vote on the entire health-care overhaul.
Still, the CBO report was enough for an equally giddy Obama to postpone his scheduled Asian trip so that he can be on hand for what he clearly expects to be the biggest political win of his presidency.
Alas, if he wins, America loses.