Papers by Bashir Kolawole
Theory, methodology, practice, Mar 1, 2024
This paper examines the relationship between external debt and economic growth over the period 19... more This paper examines the relationship between external debt and economic growth over the period 1981-2021 in Nigeria using the ARDL econometric technique. As economic growth is elusive amid a high and increasing stock of external debt, the country is on the verge of losing access to international financing. Thus, the problem provokes raging discussion on whether, or not, external debt is growth-enhancing in Nigeria. As such, in an attempt to contribute to the discussion and proffer a solution to the problem, this paper builds on an earlier study. Consequent upon preliminary diagnostics, a oneway causality is established to run in a specific pairwise relationship as each of external debt and domestic investment Granger causes economic growth. Moreover, following the affirmation of the long-run relationship among the variables, estimation results reveal an inverse relationship between real interest rate and economic growth in the short-run. The results further establish that external debt impacts negatively, as against openness to trade and domestic investment averagely impacting positively, on economic growth in both the short-run and long-run. In essence, if it becomes pertinent for the country to borrow for growth-enhancing investments, the government is advised to borrow at a zero rate of real interest.
Turk Turizm Arastirmalari Dergisi
As the size of the federal government expands in tandem with debt, economic growth rather looks g... more As the size of the federal government expands in tandem with debt, economic growth rather looks gloomy despite the country’s emergence from two recessions in four years. Although the situation provokes studies with robust outcomes, however, there is no convergence in findings. As such, in the attempt to contribute to the empirics, this paper assesses the relationship between government size and economic growth using the Johansen co-integration technique on time series data covering the period 1981-2020. A long-run relationship is affirmed as expenditure on transfers Granger-causes economic growth while economic growth Granger-causes social and community services, and a no-causality is established between economic growth and every other component of expenditure. Nonetheless, expenditure on social and community services impact economic growth negatively even as economic services and transfers promote growth. Thus, with disaggregated recurrent expenditure, government size exhibits both...
Theory, Methodology, Practice, 2021
This paper examines the relationship between fiscal stability and macroeconomic environment in Ni... more This paper examines the relationship between fiscal stability and macroeconomic environment in Nigeria using time series data covering the period 1981-2019. As Nigeria’s debt appears excessive amid macroeconomic imbalance, different concerns are raised about the capacity of the government to repay the debt. In this regard, several studies are conducted on the sustainability of the country’s debt. But then, as a long-run analysis, assessment of debt sustainability is prone to considerable uncertainty and large margins of error. Thus, the relevance and need for a short-run analysis which serves as the basis for assessing fiscal stability. In the process, while multiple structural breaks are revealed in the total revenue, exchange rate, and total debt series, a feedback causal-effect is affirmed between fiscal stability and interest rate. Consequently, the short-run analysis establishes negative impacts from each of debt and exchange rate, as against positive effect from revenue on fis...
European Scientific Journal, ESJ, Dec 28, 2012
This paper examines the causal linkage between open markets (OPM), financial sector development (... more This paper examines the causal linkage between open markets (OPM), financial sector development (FSD) and economic growth in Nigeria. Time series data for the period 1990 to 2010 were fitted into the regression equation using various econometric techniques such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). Empirical results reveal that causality does not exist between open markets, financial sector development, and growth as pairwise causation between these variables was also found to be weak and insignificant in the country.
This paper examines the relevance of selected planning models in the attempt to reduce poverty an... more This paper examines the relevance of selected planning models in the attempt to reduce poverty and achieve economic growth and development in Nigeria through national economic development plans. A synopsis of the linear programming and input-output models asserts a preference for the linear programming (optimizing) model due to the heterogeneous development pattern in the country coupled with gaps between the achievements vis-avis the objectives and strategies of the plans.
This study examines the impact exacted by foreign assistance in the form of official development ... more This study examines the impact exacted by foreign assistance in the form of official development assistance (ODA) and foreign direct investment (FDI) on real growth in Nigeria over the period 1980 to 2011. Using the Two-Gap model and various econometric techniques which include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test and Error Correction Method (ECM), empirical results reveal that there is Granger no-causality between any pair of the variables. Findings of the study also established a negative relationship between FDI and real growth as ODA exacts no impact on real growth in the country.
As regional integration is key to Africa’s development, ECOWAS has thus been recognized as a succ... more As regional integration is key to Africa’s development, ECOWAS has thus been recognized as a successful and the most active regional body on the continent. Meanwhile, ECOWAS is formed solely by, and comprises only, countries in West Africa. However, Morocco, a North African country, requests to join ECOWAS considering its value of trade and its commitment to promoting economic integration in the region. But then, Morocco has stronger economic link with Europe than with ECOWAS. It is on this premise this paper examines the relevance of Morocco’s membership in the integration and development of ECOWAS. By adopting an econometric technique of dynamic panel data covering the period 2003-2016, two models are specifically estimated. The first model analyses average impacts of development, inflation rate, government size, foreign direct investment, and institutional quality on integration. The second model, on the other hand, evaluates the average effect of integration, among other variabl...
Management & Economics Research Journal, 2021
The socio-economic crisis associated with COVID-19 is threatening progress towards attaining sust... more The socio-economic crisis associated with COVID-19 is threatening progress towards attaining sustainable development goals. In this regard, global GDP is to contract in 2020 by 5.2% as against 2.8% in SSA. In addition, as global recession is imminent, developing countries stand to accommodate about 60 million people into extreme poverty amid rising debt. However, as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development, United Nations and African Union resolve to eradicate extreme poverty through aspirations for inclusive growth by 2030 and 2063, respectively. It is on this background this paper examines the impact of debt and COVID-19, as well as the effectiveness of growth inclusiveness for sustainable development in SSA. Imperatively, using a panel of 43 countries over the period 2016-2019, it is established that the level of employment increases, just as life expectancy improves, in tandem with inclusive growth. Also, the timeline analysis of the COVID-19 period reveals that ...
Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, 2016
This study has investigated the relationship between government spending and inclusive growth in ... more This study has investigated the relationship between government spending and inclusive growth in Nigeria over the period 1995 to 2014. Specifically, it examined how, and to what extent, government spending on education, government spending on health, economic freedom, public resource use, and real GDP growth rate have impacted on inclusive growth in the country. It used the Dickey-Fuller GLS unit root test to ascertain the order of integration of the series. Consequently, through the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing technique, the study found that in the long-run government spending on health, economic freedom, public resource use and real GDP growth rate had significantly positive influence on inclusive growth. In the short-run, however, only real GDP impacted significantly on inclusive growth while other variables were not significant in causing inclusive growth. Thus, in conclusion, government spending in the form of redistributive spending on health propelled...
European Scientific Journal, Apr 30, 2013
This study empirically investigates the impact of interest rates and some macroeconomic variables... more This study empirically investigates the impact of interest rates and some macroeconomic variables on agricultural performance in Nigeria by employing co-integration and an error correction mechanism (ECM) technique with annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2011. The results reveal that there is a negative relationship between agricultural value added, interest rate spread, and inflation in the country. By implication, the study deduces that the higher the level of inflation and interest rate spread in the country, the lower the level of agricultural value added will be.
Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2014
The contribution of agriculture to poverty reduction is a well-known fact following the experienc... more The contribution of agriculture to poverty reduction is a well-known fact following the experience of certain economies around the world. Majority of these economies falls within the developed countries where a substantial percentage of their agricultural products is imported from developing nations. In this light, as Nigeria is an agrarian economy with increasing level of poverty, this study empirically investigates the impact of agricultural sector on poverty reduction in the country over the period 1986 to 2012. Among econometric techniques employed for the research, the error correction mechanism (ECM) model reveals that food production index and government spending had negative impact on poverty headcount ratio in the country.
European Scientific Journal, Dec 28, 2012
This paper examines the causal linkage between open markets (OPM), financial sector development (... more This paper examines the causal linkage between open markets (OPM), financial sector development (FSD) and economic growth in Nigeria. Time series data for the period 1990 to 2010 were fitted into the regression equation using various econometric techniques such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). Empirical results reveal that causality does not exist between open markets, financial sector development, and growth as pairwise causation between these variables was also found to be weak and insignificant in the country.
European Scientific Journal, Apr 30, 2013
Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2015
The relationship among government capital expenditure, foreign direct investment (FDI), and econo... more The relationship among government capital expenditure, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in Nigeria has been examined by this study. It specifically investigated the impact of government capital expenditure, and FDI, on economic growth in the country during the period from 1980 to 2012. The analysis of the relationship was carried out by employing some econometric techniques which included Ordinary Least Square (OLS), cointegration and Granger causality to ascertain the causal relation between variables, as well as the extent to which one variable impacted on the other. Findings from the analysis revealed that the both of government capital expenditure and growth Granger caused each other, as a unidirectional causality was established between growth and FDI. However, a Granger no-causality relationship existed between government capital expenditure and FDI. It was further revealed that government capital expenditure had a significantly positive influence on economic growth. Thus, the study suggests that government should channel more of her expenditure on capital projects like power, energy, road, health, education, and commercial agriculture in order to boost growth, as well as attract more FDI into the country.
IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 2013
The paper examines the effects of trade as an alternative policy to manage migration in Nigeria. ... more The paper examines the effects of trade as an alternative policy to manage migration in Nigeria. This study shed new light on the debate by bringing together papers that investigate the link between trade and factor mobility, particularly labour migration, from theoretical and empirical perspectives. This study conclude that imports and labour immigration are complements while some are substitute which are also the two strands of the theories which are based on the traditional and the modern theories.
Journal of Sustainable Development, 2015
This study examined the relationships among oil revenue, government spending, and economic growth... more This study examined the relationships among oil revenue, government spending, and economic growth in Nigeria. By implication, it investigated whether oil revenue impacted on government spending, as well as on economic growth in the country over the period from 1980 to 2012. Time series data were analyzed using econometric techniques which included Ordinary Least Square (OLS), cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger causality to determine the direction of causality and the magnitude of impacts of the variables. Findings from the analysis revealed that oil revenue Granger caused both of total government spending and growth, while there was no-causality between government spending and growth in the country. The study therefore suggested that government should increase spending on capital projects as well as intensify efforts at increasing output in the oil sub-sector in order to boost economic growth in Nigeria.
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015
This study examines the relationship among poverty, inequality and economic growth in Nigeria by ... more This study examines the relationship among poverty, inequality and economic growth in Nigeria by employing macroeconomic variables which include GDP growth rate, per capita income, literacy rate, government expenditure on education, and government expenditure on health. Time series data over the period from 1980 to 2012 were fitted into the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression equations using various econometric techniques such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Phillips-Perron unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) technique. The OLS results reveal that GDP growth rate increases inequality, but reduces poverty in the country. It is thus suggested that, aside boosting the GDP, an increased effective government spending on education and public health facilities, as well as programmes that are meant primarily for the non-privileged like children, women and the poor in general, be provided for poverty and inequality to reduce in the country.
Developing Country Studies, 2013
This study empirically examines the growth-effects of macroeconomic stability factors in Nigeria.... more This study empirically examines the growth-effects of macroeconomic stability factors in Nigeria. Using time series data for the period 1980 to 2011 and adopting various econometric techniques such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Granger causality test, and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), the results reveal that real interest rate significantly affects growth positively, while external debt and real exchange rate impact negatively on growth in the country. The study, however, concludes that for macroeconomic stability to be achieved in Nigeria, each of the factors should be examined individually such that its respective effect on growth could be identified while appropriate policy would be formulated and implemented where required.
Developing Country Studies, 2014
This study has empirically examined the likely factors responsible for the private sector perform... more This study has empirically examined the likely factors responsible for the private sector performance in Nigeria. It employed econometric methodology and techniques such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and error correction mechanism (ECM) with annual time series data covering the period 1996 to 2011. Findings revealed significant and positive impacts of domestic credit to private sector, property right and investment freedom on private sector performance in the country. The study, thus recommends that the government of Nigeria should provide a favourable business environment for the private sector to thrive.
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Papers by Bashir Kolawole