In this study, I analyze the motivations behind a state's decision to call for the removal o... more In this study, I analyze the motivations behind a state's decision to call for the removal of another state's government. The purpose of this analysis is to construct a model explaining state behavior concerning the initiation and escalation of regime claims in the Americas. I find that states are motivated by two factors: (1) threats to an otherwise acceptable status quo, and (2) the opportunity to improve an unacceptable set of bilateral relations. Such elements are not only likely to produce the initiation of the verbal challenges to another state's government, but have the propensity to lead countries to use military force in support of these regime claims.
John A. Tures Analyst, Evidence Based Research, Inc. 1595 Spring Hill Rd., Ste. 250 Vienna, VA 20... more John A. Tures Analyst, Evidence Based Research, Inc. 1595 Spring Hill Rd., Ste. 250 Vienna, VA 20120 tures@ebrinc.com ... Paul R. Hensel Department of Political Science Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306-2230 http://hensel.icow.orgphensel@icow.org
The Middle East has witnessed a recent spate of alterations in rulers and regimes. These new lead... more The Middle East has witnessed a recent spate of alterations in rulers and regimes. These new leaders are coming to power in countries having a history of international conflict with other states in the region. Will the change in government exacerbate interstate crises, producing disputes and wars? Or will the nascent leadership steer their countries to peace, choosing instead to focus on an internal consolidation of power? To answer this question, this article examines the theories of foreign policy behavior of new leaders. It discusses the results of a quantitative analysis of an earlier time frame: the initial years of the Cold War. The article then conducts a series of case study analyses of contemporary times to determine if the theory and prior statistical tests remain valid. The results show that new administrations are more likely to target rivals with a threat, display, or limited use of force. Such incoming leaders, however, seem reluctant to drag their countries into a ful...
... left, interventions by the Cubans and South Africans in support of rival factions made the ca... more ... left, interventions by the Cubans and South Africans in support of rival factions made the case a regime-based dispute, since at least one of the factions is recognized by the international community as possessing de facto control over Angola (Galloway, 1978; Quaye, 1991). ...
... and his allies (Harrison, 2005). More recently, former President Rafsanjani has blamed Presid... more ... and his allies (Harrison, 2005). More recently, former President Rafsanjani has blamed President Ahmadinejad's populist spending policies for skyrocketing prices and economic misery (Hafezi, 2008). The fact that President ...
Hackman demonstrates the increasing difficulty of reconciling liberal values with an aggressive m... more Hackman demonstrates the increasing difficulty of reconciling liberal values with an aggressive military mission. “We’re here to protect democracy, not enforce it, ” he argues to his subordinates. While aiming to support high-minded democratic ideals including fair play, due process, and individual rights, policymakers in liberal countries have often struggled to justify illiberal procedures, especially against fellow democracies. Charles Kegley and Margaret Hermann (1995, 1996, 1997) find democracies have engaged in military interventions in the internal affairs of other liberal states. In studying why democracies intervene against other their fellow liberal states, I discovered democracies intervene in other democracies when the target gives its consent to the operation, when the target state has experienced a recent regime transformation, and when the dyad is marked by prior conflict. These findings support arguments by scholars such as Machiavelli (1950) Kant, Doyle (1986), and ...
The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the ... more The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the profusion of economic freedom in the international system. This shift in economic policy has sparked a debate about whether free markets are superior to state controls. Numerous studies have compared the neoliberal and statist policies on issues of production capacity, economic growth, commercial volumes, and egalitarianism. An overlooked research agenda, however, is the relationship between levels of economic freedom and violence within countries. Proponents of the statist approach might note that a strong government can bend the market to its will, directing activity toward policies necessary to achieve greater levels of gross domestic product and growth. By extracting more resources for the economy, a powerful state can redistribute benefits to keep the populace happy. Higher taxes can also pay for an army and police force that intimidate people. Such governments range from command ec...
The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the ... more The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the profusion of economic freedom in the international system. This shift in economic policy has sparked a debate about whether free markets are superior to state controls. Numerous studies have compared the neoliberal and statist policies on issues of production capacity, economic growth, commercial volumes, and egalitarianism. An overlooked research agenda, however, is the relationship between levels of economic freedom and violence within countries. Proponents of the statist approach might note that a strong government can bend the market to its will, directing activity toward policies necessary to achieve greater levels of gross domestic product and growth. By extracting more resources for the economy, a powerful state can redistribute benefits to keep the populace happy. Higher taxes can also pay for an army and police force that intimidate people. Such governments range from command ec...
A bomb blast in Spain, just before the country's election, destroyed several commuter trains,... more A bomb blast in Spain, just before the country's election, destroyed several commuter trains, killing hundreds and wounding thousands. Three days later, Spanish voters turned out the conservative Popular Party and Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, inserting the Spanish Socialist Party leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero as Aznar's replacement.Several months later, a cryptic message was delivered to the offices of al-Jazeera in Pakistan. Within hours, American audiences were watching Osama bin Laden's videotape. An initial poll from Newsweek magazine claimed that incumbent President George W. Bush jumped to a six-point lead as a result of the reaction to al-Qaeda's message. A few days later, President Bush and the Republicans prevailed over the challenger, Senator John F. Kerry from Massachusetts.In both these cases, the media claimed that terrorists determined the outcome of the elections, an opinion that is commonly held. 1 If this opinion is true, it implies that te...
Since September 11, 2001, the United States has launched military operations against Afghanistan ... more Since September 11, 2001, the United States has launched military operations against Afghanistan and Iraq. The names of these operations, Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom, imply that at least part of the mission will be devoted to promoting democracy in these countries. Proponents of exporting freedom extol the virtues of such policies, pointing to success stories in Germany and Japan after World War II, as well as more recent cases, such as Panama after 1989. Critics assail America’s track record of using military force to promote democratization, citing failures in Somalia and Haiti, as well as incomplete efforts such as Bosnia. The question before us is whether Afghanistan and Iraq will look more like the former group, or begin to resemble the latter group. The answer is critical for the future of American foreign policy. Other “Axis of Evil” states are awaiting confrontation with the United States. People in Central Asia, the Middle East, East Asia, and Afr...
Academics have long debated whether relationship exists between freedom and development. Problems... more Academics have long debated whether relationship exists between freedom and development. Problems with these studies lead others to question the connection between these variables. In contributing to the scholarly debate, a new interactive variable is created that combines several measures of economic and political freedom, as suggested by Milton Friedman. The link between this new freedom variable and both economic and human development is examined across a series of cross- sections from the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Results indicate that this new freedom measure is strongly related to both forms of development for the developed and developing world. 1 1. FREEDOM AND DEVELOPMENT: IMPROVING PRIOR STUDIES A fierce debate has emerged in the scholarly community about the relationship between freedom and development. Part of the problem is that some scholars have sought to separate economic freedom from political freedom. In doing so, they have devoted themselves exclusively to establishi...
What is the future for East Europe? Academicians are split on this issue. Some believe in the old... more What is the future for East Europe? Academicians are split on this issue. Some believe in the old syllogism pervasive in these former communist nations which states "If it had not been for the system, we would be just like the West" (Przeworski, 1991). Such advocates back the "bitter pill" strategy, involving mass privatizations, trade liberalization, fundamental changes in property rights, and slashing state budgets, They believe a heavy dosage of Western capitalism is enough to transform these once centrally-planned dinosaur economies into free market racehorses in a short period of time. Others have a more pessimistic attitude about what transition really means for East Europe. Valerie Bunce (1985) worries about the strong likelihood for Western exploitation of the East. In such a context, a plan like the bitter pill would bankrupt Eastern firms and subject labor to slave wages. Adam Przeworski (1991) agrees with the assessment "The East has become the South," contending that an already poor East Europe is destined to fall under the yoke of "poverty capitalism." Even if East Europe is able to rid itself of being tagged a region of poverty-stricken "borscht republics," parity with the West becomes a daunting task. "It is highly unlikely that East and West Europe will ever be regarded on an equal basis," announced Ljubisa Adamovich (1996). The clash between free market purists and pessimists is the latest in a long line of debates between two schools of thought: modernization and dependency theories. Much of this debate is predicated upon arguments from derived orthodox variants, each of which fails to capture the true circumstances of the current scenario facing East European nations. Yet neither school of thought is without value. Newer variants of these theories account for many shortcomings of their classical predecessors, and are more effective in identifying potential pitfalls and solutions to these crises. While neo-dependency theory is superior in identifying the problems faced by many of these would-be free marketers, the neo-modernization school has more utility in providing viable alternatives to overcoming such difficulties. From both of these theory improvements a model for East Europe's transition (with improved sensitivity to the external and internal context of economics and politics) can be initiated. Though the essay will deal with problems encountered by most East European nations and the former Soviet Union, Macedonia will serve as an important focal case study from which evaluations of orthodox and contemporary theories can be made for several reasons. First, Macedonia and other small Balkan states are typically ignored in texts on economic development in East Europe. Evidence will show that these less well known states have the same problems to tackle and opportunities for solutions as Poland, Hungary or the Czech Republic. Second, Macedonia's external political dynamics provide for an excellent test of existing development theories. Finally, a great deal of important insight provided was by Macedonian scholars and other regional experts at a special conference on economic and political transformation in 1996. On paper, the orthodox version of modernization theory offers macroeconomic and individual prosperity for its followers. The "classical" wing of modernization theory tends to assume that countries which do not belong to the OECD club remain in a "traditional" state of development which is viewed as backward (So, 1990). To reach the promised land of modernization, a Western-style strategy of growth attainment is offered by classical modernist Walt Whitman Rostow. In Rostow's (1960) modernization plan, a traditional country begins with undeveloped potential but begins to cultivate industries and markets. At this point, deaths decrease due to biomedical and agricultural discoveries leading to a population explosion in the phase called "precondition for takeoff. …
The Western Journal of Black Studies, Mar 22, 2014
Introduction Even prior to the historic 2008 election, there has been interest in African America... more Introduction Even prior to the historic 2008 election, there has been interest in African American candidates for higher office. "Black elected officials receive greater notoriety because their probability of attaining high office is greater than it has been for any generation of Blacks in the United States (Gillespie, 201 Ob)." The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies (2009) finds that "while there has been little recent change in the number of African Americans elected to statewide office, by the end of the period (2002-2007), more black elected officials (BEOs) in statewide office were in higher ranked positions." Yet only six African Americans have ever won a U.S. Senate seat or gubernatorial race. Most studies on the subject focus on factors ranging from voting behavior of the electorate to "white-backlash" (Hagen, 1995; Highton, 2004). Others cover structural factors, including electoral dynamics and strategies of the candidates (Sonenshein, 1990). Much less has been focused on a shift from "race" to "ideology" or a candidate's voting record, where overt racial attacks have been mostly replaced by subtle attacks on African-Americans as being "too liberal" for higher office like governor and the U.S. Senate. After reviewing several campaigns in the literature (Massachusetts Senator Edward Brooke, California Governor candidate Tom Bradley, Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, North Carolina Senate candidate Harvey Gantt, New York Governor candidate Carl McCall and Texas Senate candidate Ron Kirk) for the emerging role of ideology in voting records in attempts to run deracial campaigns, I examine five additional elections featuring African American members of the U.S. House of Representatives who sought statewide office: Alan Wheat of Missouri in the 1994 U.S. Senate race, Cleo Fields in the 1995 Louisiana Governor's race, William Jefferson in the 1999 Louisiana Governor's race, Denise Majette of Georgia in the 2004 U.S. Senate race, and Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee in the 2006 U.S. Senate race. With the exception of Ford, these cases received less coverage in the literature. Each candidate was accused of being "too liberal" to represent a state in the U.S. Senate or in a governor's mansion. Their voting ideologies are compared to their electoral outcomes to determine if there is a connection between both factors. Additionally, I examine years of congressional experience, the state's African American population percentage, the type of office sought, whether the African American candidate or opponent in the general election faced primary opposition, whether the opponent had run for statewide office before, the year of the election, and how well the party did in the last election to see if they play a greater impact upon the electoral outcome than a candidate's congressional voting record. The Importance Of Ideology For African Americans In Statewide Elections African American candidates have made gains in elections since the 1950s and 1960s. But despite the impressive 2004 Illinois Senate victory and 2008 Presidential election triumph by Barack Obama, the number of African Americans who prevail in gubernatorial and senate elections remains scant (Jeffries and Jones, 2006). On the eve of Barack Obama's 2012 reelection, only one African American was governor (Deval Patrick) and no African Americans were in the U.S. Senate (though in 2013 Cory Booker won a special election to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey and Rep. Tim Scott was appointed to an open South Carolina seat). Why do African American candidates, many with impressive resumes of political experience, come up short in statewide elections? The answer may come from the first African American to be elected governor since the Reconstruction Era. When L. Douglas Wilder, then a legislator, ran for Lt. Governor before his historic victory in 1989, his opponent derided him as a liberal. "This prompted] Wilder to argue that the word liberal was being used as a code word for Black (Jeffries, 2002, p. …
In this study, I analyze the motivations behind a state's decision to call for the removal o... more In this study, I analyze the motivations behind a state's decision to call for the removal of another state's government. The purpose of this analysis is to construct a model explaining state behavior concerning the initiation and escalation of regime claims in the Americas. I find that states are motivated by two factors: (1) threats to an otherwise acceptable status quo, and (2) the opportunity to improve an unacceptable set of bilateral relations. Such elements are not only likely to produce the initiation of the verbal challenges to another state's government, but have the propensity to lead countries to use military force in support of these regime claims.
John A. Tures Analyst, Evidence Based Research, Inc. 1595 Spring Hill Rd., Ste. 250 Vienna, VA 20... more John A. Tures Analyst, Evidence Based Research, Inc. 1595 Spring Hill Rd., Ste. 250 Vienna, VA 20120 tures@ebrinc.com ... Paul R. Hensel Department of Political Science Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306-2230 http://hensel.icow.orgphensel@icow.org
The Middle East has witnessed a recent spate of alterations in rulers and regimes. These new lead... more The Middle East has witnessed a recent spate of alterations in rulers and regimes. These new leaders are coming to power in countries having a history of international conflict with other states in the region. Will the change in government exacerbate interstate crises, producing disputes and wars? Or will the nascent leadership steer their countries to peace, choosing instead to focus on an internal consolidation of power? To answer this question, this article examines the theories of foreign policy behavior of new leaders. It discusses the results of a quantitative analysis of an earlier time frame: the initial years of the Cold War. The article then conducts a series of case study analyses of contemporary times to determine if the theory and prior statistical tests remain valid. The results show that new administrations are more likely to target rivals with a threat, display, or limited use of force. Such incoming leaders, however, seem reluctant to drag their countries into a ful...
... left, interventions by the Cubans and South Africans in support of rival factions made the ca... more ... left, interventions by the Cubans and South Africans in support of rival factions made the case a regime-based dispute, since at least one of the factions is recognized by the international community as possessing de facto control over Angola (Galloway, 1978; Quaye, 1991). ...
... and his allies (Harrison, 2005). More recently, former President Rafsanjani has blamed Presid... more ... and his allies (Harrison, 2005). More recently, former President Rafsanjani has blamed President Ahmadinejad's populist spending policies for skyrocketing prices and economic misery (Hafezi, 2008). The fact that President ...
Hackman demonstrates the increasing difficulty of reconciling liberal values with an aggressive m... more Hackman demonstrates the increasing difficulty of reconciling liberal values with an aggressive military mission. “We’re here to protect democracy, not enforce it, ” he argues to his subordinates. While aiming to support high-minded democratic ideals including fair play, due process, and individual rights, policymakers in liberal countries have often struggled to justify illiberal procedures, especially against fellow democracies. Charles Kegley and Margaret Hermann (1995, 1996, 1997) find democracies have engaged in military interventions in the internal affairs of other liberal states. In studying why democracies intervene against other their fellow liberal states, I discovered democracies intervene in other democracies when the target gives its consent to the operation, when the target state has experienced a recent regime transformation, and when the dyad is marked by prior conflict. These findings support arguments by scholars such as Machiavelli (1950) Kant, Doyle (1986), and ...
The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the ... more The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the profusion of economic freedom in the international system. This shift in economic policy has sparked a debate about whether free markets are superior to state controls. Numerous studies have compared the neoliberal and statist policies on issues of production capacity, economic growth, commercial volumes, and egalitarianism. An overlooked research agenda, however, is the relationship between levels of economic freedom and violence within countries. Proponents of the statist approach might note that a strong government can bend the market to its will, directing activity toward policies necessary to achieve greater levels of gross domestic product and growth. By extracting more resources for the economy, a powerful state can redistribute benefits to keep the populace happy. Higher taxes can also pay for an army and police force that intimidate people. Such governments range from command ec...
The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the ... more The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented expansion of market-based reforms and the profusion of economic freedom in the international system. This shift in economic policy has sparked a debate about whether free markets are superior to state controls. Numerous studies have compared the neoliberal and statist policies on issues of production capacity, economic growth, commercial volumes, and egalitarianism. An overlooked research agenda, however, is the relationship between levels of economic freedom and violence within countries. Proponents of the statist approach might note that a strong government can bend the market to its will, directing activity toward policies necessary to achieve greater levels of gross domestic product and growth. By extracting more resources for the economy, a powerful state can redistribute benefits to keep the populace happy. Higher taxes can also pay for an army and police force that intimidate people. Such governments range from command ec...
A bomb blast in Spain, just before the country's election, destroyed several commuter trains,... more A bomb blast in Spain, just before the country's election, destroyed several commuter trains, killing hundreds and wounding thousands. Three days later, Spanish voters turned out the conservative Popular Party and Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, inserting the Spanish Socialist Party leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero as Aznar's replacement.Several months later, a cryptic message was delivered to the offices of al-Jazeera in Pakistan. Within hours, American audiences were watching Osama bin Laden's videotape. An initial poll from Newsweek magazine claimed that incumbent President George W. Bush jumped to a six-point lead as a result of the reaction to al-Qaeda's message. A few days later, President Bush and the Republicans prevailed over the challenger, Senator John F. Kerry from Massachusetts.In both these cases, the media claimed that terrorists determined the outcome of the elections, an opinion that is commonly held. 1 If this opinion is true, it implies that te...
Since September 11, 2001, the United States has launched military operations against Afghanistan ... more Since September 11, 2001, the United States has launched military operations against Afghanistan and Iraq. The names of these operations, Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom, imply that at least part of the mission will be devoted to promoting democracy in these countries. Proponents of exporting freedom extol the virtues of such policies, pointing to success stories in Germany and Japan after World War II, as well as more recent cases, such as Panama after 1989. Critics assail America’s track record of using military force to promote democratization, citing failures in Somalia and Haiti, as well as incomplete efforts such as Bosnia. The question before us is whether Afghanistan and Iraq will look more like the former group, or begin to resemble the latter group. The answer is critical for the future of American foreign policy. Other “Axis of Evil” states are awaiting confrontation with the United States. People in Central Asia, the Middle East, East Asia, and Afr...
Academics have long debated whether relationship exists between freedom and development. Problems... more Academics have long debated whether relationship exists between freedom and development. Problems with these studies lead others to question the connection between these variables. In contributing to the scholarly debate, a new interactive variable is created that combines several measures of economic and political freedom, as suggested by Milton Friedman. The link between this new freedom variable and both economic and human development is examined across a series of cross- sections from the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Results indicate that this new freedom measure is strongly related to both forms of development for the developed and developing world. 1 1. FREEDOM AND DEVELOPMENT: IMPROVING PRIOR STUDIES A fierce debate has emerged in the scholarly community about the relationship between freedom and development. Part of the problem is that some scholars have sought to separate economic freedom from political freedom. In doing so, they have devoted themselves exclusively to establishi...
What is the future for East Europe? Academicians are split on this issue. Some believe in the old... more What is the future for East Europe? Academicians are split on this issue. Some believe in the old syllogism pervasive in these former communist nations which states "If it had not been for the system, we would be just like the West" (Przeworski, 1991). Such advocates back the "bitter pill" strategy, involving mass privatizations, trade liberalization, fundamental changes in property rights, and slashing state budgets, They believe a heavy dosage of Western capitalism is enough to transform these once centrally-planned dinosaur economies into free market racehorses in a short period of time. Others have a more pessimistic attitude about what transition really means for East Europe. Valerie Bunce (1985) worries about the strong likelihood for Western exploitation of the East. In such a context, a plan like the bitter pill would bankrupt Eastern firms and subject labor to slave wages. Adam Przeworski (1991) agrees with the assessment "The East has become the South," contending that an already poor East Europe is destined to fall under the yoke of "poverty capitalism." Even if East Europe is able to rid itself of being tagged a region of poverty-stricken "borscht republics," parity with the West becomes a daunting task. "It is highly unlikely that East and West Europe will ever be regarded on an equal basis," announced Ljubisa Adamovich (1996). The clash between free market purists and pessimists is the latest in a long line of debates between two schools of thought: modernization and dependency theories. Much of this debate is predicated upon arguments from derived orthodox variants, each of which fails to capture the true circumstances of the current scenario facing East European nations. Yet neither school of thought is without value. Newer variants of these theories account for many shortcomings of their classical predecessors, and are more effective in identifying potential pitfalls and solutions to these crises. While neo-dependency theory is superior in identifying the problems faced by many of these would-be free marketers, the neo-modernization school has more utility in providing viable alternatives to overcoming such difficulties. From both of these theory improvements a model for East Europe's transition (with improved sensitivity to the external and internal context of economics and politics) can be initiated. Though the essay will deal with problems encountered by most East European nations and the former Soviet Union, Macedonia will serve as an important focal case study from which evaluations of orthodox and contemporary theories can be made for several reasons. First, Macedonia and other small Balkan states are typically ignored in texts on economic development in East Europe. Evidence will show that these less well known states have the same problems to tackle and opportunities for solutions as Poland, Hungary or the Czech Republic. Second, Macedonia's external political dynamics provide for an excellent test of existing development theories. Finally, a great deal of important insight provided was by Macedonian scholars and other regional experts at a special conference on economic and political transformation in 1996. On paper, the orthodox version of modernization theory offers macroeconomic and individual prosperity for its followers. The "classical" wing of modernization theory tends to assume that countries which do not belong to the OECD club remain in a "traditional" state of development which is viewed as backward (So, 1990). To reach the promised land of modernization, a Western-style strategy of growth attainment is offered by classical modernist Walt Whitman Rostow. In Rostow's (1960) modernization plan, a traditional country begins with undeveloped potential but begins to cultivate industries and markets. At this point, deaths decrease due to biomedical and agricultural discoveries leading to a population explosion in the phase called "precondition for takeoff. …
The Western Journal of Black Studies, Mar 22, 2014
Introduction Even prior to the historic 2008 election, there has been interest in African America... more Introduction Even prior to the historic 2008 election, there has been interest in African American candidates for higher office. "Black elected officials receive greater notoriety because their probability of attaining high office is greater than it has been for any generation of Blacks in the United States (Gillespie, 201 Ob)." The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies (2009) finds that "while there has been little recent change in the number of African Americans elected to statewide office, by the end of the period (2002-2007), more black elected officials (BEOs) in statewide office were in higher ranked positions." Yet only six African Americans have ever won a U.S. Senate seat or gubernatorial race. Most studies on the subject focus on factors ranging from voting behavior of the electorate to "white-backlash" (Hagen, 1995; Highton, 2004). Others cover structural factors, including electoral dynamics and strategies of the candidates (Sonenshein, 1990). Much less has been focused on a shift from "race" to "ideology" or a candidate's voting record, where overt racial attacks have been mostly replaced by subtle attacks on African-Americans as being "too liberal" for higher office like governor and the U.S. Senate. After reviewing several campaigns in the literature (Massachusetts Senator Edward Brooke, California Governor candidate Tom Bradley, Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, North Carolina Senate candidate Harvey Gantt, New York Governor candidate Carl McCall and Texas Senate candidate Ron Kirk) for the emerging role of ideology in voting records in attempts to run deracial campaigns, I examine five additional elections featuring African American members of the U.S. House of Representatives who sought statewide office: Alan Wheat of Missouri in the 1994 U.S. Senate race, Cleo Fields in the 1995 Louisiana Governor's race, William Jefferson in the 1999 Louisiana Governor's race, Denise Majette of Georgia in the 2004 U.S. Senate race, and Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee in the 2006 U.S. Senate race. With the exception of Ford, these cases received less coverage in the literature. Each candidate was accused of being "too liberal" to represent a state in the U.S. Senate or in a governor's mansion. Their voting ideologies are compared to their electoral outcomes to determine if there is a connection between both factors. Additionally, I examine years of congressional experience, the state's African American population percentage, the type of office sought, whether the African American candidate or opponent in the general election faced primary opposition, whether the opponent had run for statewide office before, the year of the election, and how well the party did in the last election to see if they play a greater impact upon the electoral outcome than a candidate's congressional voting record. The Importance Of Ideology For African Americans In Statewide Elections African American candidates have made gains in elections since the 1950s and 1960s. But despite the impressive 2004 Illinois Senate victory and 2008 Presidential election triumph by Barack Obama, the number of African Americans who prevail in gubernatorial and senate elections remains scant (Jeffries and Jones, 2006). On the eve of Barack Obama's 2012 reelection, only one African American was governor (Deval Patrick) and no African Americans were in the U.S. Senate (though in 2013 Cory Booker won a special election to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey and Rep. Tim Scott was appointed to an open South Carolina seat). Why do African American candidates, many with impressive resumes of political experience, come up short in statewide elections? The answer may come from the first African American to be elected governor since the Reconstruction Era. When L. Douglas Wilder, then a legislator, ran for Lt. Governor before his historic victory in 1989, his opponent derided him as a liberal. "This prompted] Wilder to argue that the word liberal was being used as a code word for Black (Jeffries, 2002, p. …
In 2016, both Republicans and Democratic Party supporters accused each other of receiving favorab... more In 2016, both Republicans and Democratic Party supporters accused each other of receiving favorable press coverage. We examine stories in a series of newspapers from geographic diverse regions, as well as diversity in endorsements, for negative and neutral stories. We found evidence of a bad news bias, more news coverage for Donald Trump (equal to that of all other candidates combined), but also more negative press for Trump than positive, though Clinton herself had more negative than positive stories as well.
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