The knowledge of factors affecting the end-consumers choice of building material for specific pur... more The knowledge of factors affecting the end-consumers choice of building material for specific purposes, i.e., the mechanisms of substitute competition, necessary to understand the competitive situation of wood, is limited. In this paper interviews of floorcovering customers and sales representatives are analysed. The results suggested that by using a multivariate projection method, PLS-DA (Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis), it is possible to extract the most important predictors of material preferences from answers to open-ended questions and make comparisons between the two groups, thus allowing partismony, as there is no need for follow-up study with pre-structured response alternatives to quantify variables (e.g., using Likert scales). End-consumers and sales representatives show agreement in their assessment of determinant attributes and appraisal of the different materials. Unlike the other materials, the decisive reasons for choosing wood appear to be exclusively non...
Abstract The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in c... more Abstract The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in consumption of wood pellets, and the demand is expected to further increase the next decade. We use economic modelling to assess the impact on global wood-based product markets of gradually increasing wood pellets consumption within the EU. Comparing a scenario wherein consumption is determined exclusively by market forces with one where EU consumption is set to double between 2015 and 2030, we characterize the deviation from the unregulated market equilibrium that would attain. Our results highlight the necessity of assessing market impacts over time, with a sufficient geographical disaggregation. An increased EU demand for wood pellets would, apart from increased EU production, results in increased imports. The main sources are projected to be Russia, Canada, and, particularly, the USA. The results indicate synergies and competition between wood-based products and wood pellets. In general sawmilling stand to gain from increased wood pellets' consumption, while the opposite holds for wood-based panels and most paper grades. Due to the feedstock mix used in production of wood pellets and wood-based products, effects vary over time and among different EU members, as well as between EU and other regions.
Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers... more Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers. The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. The EUTR is part of the EU’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of SFM will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In 2013, the first year of the EUTR, there are positive impacts, of which the most important is aware...
This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios ... more This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model and a forest owner decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.
Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in t... more Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in the demand for woody biomass. This paper assesses whether wood resources in the European Union (EU) will support future demand. Possible implications for countries with ample forest resources and a well-developed forest industry, such as Sweden, of an expected mounting demand pressure are discussed. Other drivers of change in global wood product markets posing challenges for the forest sector in general are also addressed. These drivers are reviewed and, together with the results from the EUwood project and econometric wood market models, analyzed as to their impacts on the Swedish forest sector. Demand is foreseen to vastly exceed the potential supply of woody biomass in Europe, putting a tremendous pressure on the Swedish forest resource and necessitating trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Further, projections suggest that Sweden will decrease in importance in production a...
Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the ... more Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the approach to the econometric analysis used for developing the market projections for EFSOS II. Due to cooperation with the Swedish Future Forest Project, initial results of these projections are already available. Outlook correspondents and ToS members are invited to review the results of the projections for their country (see separate excel spreadsheet). These results will be discussed in working group sessions during the ToS meeting, 23-24 November 2009. ToS members and outlook correspondents who will not be able to attend the meeting are invited to provide comments in writing directoly to Ragnar Jonsson at Ragnar Jonsson at Ragnar.Jonsson@ess.slu.se.
The knowledge of factors affecting the end-consumers choice of building material for specific pur... more The knowledge of factors affecting the end-consumers choice of building material for specific purposes, i.e., the mechanisms of substitute competition, necessary to understand the competitive situation of wood, is limited. In this paper interviews of floorcovering customers and sales representatives are analysed. The results suggested that by using a multivariate projection method, PLS-DA (Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis), it is possible to extract the most important predictors of material preferences from answers to open-ended questions and make comparisons between the two groups, thus allowing partismony, as there is no need for follow-up study with pre-structured response alternatives to quantify variables (e.g., using Likert scales). End-consumers and sales representatives show agreement in their assessment of determinant attributes and appraisal of the different materials. Unlike the other materials, the decisive reasons for choosing wood appear to be exclusively non...
Abstract The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in c... more Abstract The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in consumption of wood pellets, and the demand is expected to further increase the next decade. We use economic modelling to assess the impact on global wood-based product markets of gradually increasing wood pellets consumption within the EU. Comparing a scenario wherein consumption is determined exclusively by market forces with one where EU consumption is set to double between 2015 and 2030, we characterize the deviation from the unregulated market equilibrium that would attain. Our results highlight the necessity of assessing market impacts over time, with a sufficient geographical disaggregation. An increased EU demand for wood pellets would, apart from increased EU production, results in increased imports. The main sources are projected to be Russia, Canada, and, particularly, the USA. The results indicate synergies and competition between wood-based products and wood pellets. In general sawmilling stand to gain from increased wood pellets' consumption, while the opposite holds for wood-based panels and most paper grades. Due to the feedstock mix used in production of wood pellets and wood-based products, effects vary over time and among different EU members, as well as between EU and other regions.
Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers... more Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers. The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. The EUTR is part of the EU’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of SFM will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In 2013, the first year of the EUTR, there are positive impacts, of which the most important is aware...
This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios ... more This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model and a forest owner decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.
Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in t... more Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in the demand for woody biomass. This paper assesses whether wood resources in the European Union (EU) will support future demand. Possible implications for countries with ample forest resources and a well-developed forest industry, such as Sweden, of an expected mounting demand pressure are discussed. Other drivers of change in global wood product markets posing challenges for the forest sector in general are also addressed. These drivers are reviewed and, together with the results from the EUwood project and econometric wood market models, analyzed as to their impacts on the Swedish forest sector. Demand is foreseen to vastly exceed the potential supply of woody biomass in Europe, putting a tremendous pressure on the Swedish forest resource and necessitating trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Further, projections suggest that Sweden will decrease in importance in production a...
Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the ... more Through this background paper, members of the ToS and Outlook Correspondents are informed of the approach to the econometric analysis used for developing the market projections for EFSOS II. Due to cooperation with the Swedish Future Forest Project, initial results of these projections are already available. Outlook correspondents and ToS members are invited to review the results of the projections for their country (see separate excel spreadsheet). These results will be discussed in working group sessions during the ToS meeting, 23-24 November 2009. ToS members and outlook correspondents who will not be able to attend the meeting are invited to provide comments in writing directoly to Ragnar Jonsson at Ragnar Jonsson at Ragnar.Jonsson@ess.slu.se.
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