Papers by Salahuddin Ayyub
GCC fulfills 60 to 90 percent of its food demand through imports. Currently GCC imports 12 percen... more GCC fulfills 60 to 90 percent of its food demand through imports. Currently GCC imports 12 percent of its Agriculture products from India. An effort has been made in this paper to understand the trend and pattern of India’s Agriculture export to GCC with the help of Descriptive Statistics and to find out the impact of tariff reduction on India’s agriculture export to GCC Partial Equilibrium Analysis (Smart Analysis) has been used and BRCA has been used to find out the agriculture products where India has comparative advantage in GCC import market and to make a comparative analysis of GCC countries as a destination of India’s agriculture export. In case of zero tariff in GCC, India’s agriculture export will see highest growth in Saudi Arabia ($106 Million) followed by UAE ($89 Million), Kuwait ($40 Million), Qatar ($23 Million), Oman ($22 Million) and Bahrain ($6 Million). Out of 231 agriculture products, India has highest average number of products with BRCA in Qatar (76), followed ...
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India and China started opening up in the International market very late. They were in-ward looki... more India and China started opening up in the International market very late. They were in-ward looking economies in the beginning. But when they realized the importance of trade, they also opened up. The nature of both the economies changed from an in-ward looking economies to an out-ward looking and a lot of trade took place between the two nations. Constant Market Share Analysis has been used to find out the result from the trade data. It has been proved empirically that bilateral trade has given advantage to both the nations and still there is a lot of potential in both the countries to increase their bilateral trade. There are few commodities which are produced in India just to be exported to China and there are some products in China also which are produced to be sold in India only. So they have specific demand and supply relation for each other. The most important observation made in the paper is that, the trade between India and China is not of the nature that it is increasing b...
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Global trade scenario is expected to dramatically and drastically change in the coming days with ... more Global trade scenario is expected to dramatically and drastically change in the coming days with the USA becoming unconventionally protectionist denying market access to several countries including one of the biggest trading partner on the ground of national security using GATT Article XXI clause, otherwise known as national security clause. The illustration of the clause by USA has already been challenged by several countries at the WTO and the decision would decide the future of multilateral trade arrangements and trade policies of individual countries around the world.
In the short run some trade diversion is expected to happen due to sudden import restrictions in the USA and Chinese market and countries with exportable surplus like India have the chance to exploit the opportunity. However, India also needs to keep a track of Chinese inflows as the chances of dumping are more likely once Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a multilateral agreement of which India and China are members, come into force. At the same time, markets where India has competition with China and the USA, would become comparatively tougher for Indian exporters post trade war as the two countries would play more aggressively in those markets to sell out their surplus.
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India and GCC countries have very strong trade relation; 50 percent of India's energy sources are... more India and GCC countries have very strong trade relation; 50 percent of India's energy sources are extracted from GCC and India is the biggest exporter to GCC after China. GCC is India's largest trading partner with over $137 billion trade and still growing at a steady pace. India's strength in the agriculture sector has a lot of potential to fill the demand for food products in the GCC as GCC fulfills 60 to 90 percent of its food demand through imports. Currently GCC imports 12 percent of its Agriculture products from India and 17 percent of India's agriculture exports go to GCC alone. Agriculture products have a very strong presence in the Indian export basket to GCC; more than 40 percent of Bahrain and Kuwait's import from India is only in the Agriculture products. An effort has been made in this paper to understand the trend and pattern of India's Agriculture export to GCC with the help of Descriptive Statistics and to find out the impact of tariff reduction on India's agriculture export to GCC Partial Equilibrium Analysis (Smart Analysis) has been used and BRCA has been used to find out the agriculture products where India has comparative advantage in GCC import market and to make a comparative analysis of GCC countries as a destination of India's agriculture export. It has been found that India's agriculture export has a lot of potential if tariff are reduced in the GCC and Top ten products represent most of the export change as a result of tariff reduction.
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India and China started opening up in the International market very late. They were in-ward looki... more India and China started opening up in the International market very late. They were in-ward looking economies in the beginning. But when they realized the importance of trade, they also opened up. The nature of both the economies changed from an in-ward looking economies to an out-ward looking and a lot of trade took place between the two nations. Constant Market Share Analysis has been used to find out the result from the trade data. It has been proved empirically that bilateral trade has given advantage to both the nations and still there is a lot of potential in both the countries to increase their bilateral trade. There are few commodities which are produced in India just to be exported to China and there are some products in China also which are produced to be sold in India only. So they have specific demand and supply relation for each other. The most important observation made in the paper is that, the trade between India and China is not of the nature that it is increasing
because the world trade is increasing; instead, there are some commodities which are being traded by India and China for each other only because they are demanded in each other’s country. And the volume of trade of those
commodities is increasing because the demand for them is increasing in the other country, not because of the increase in the world trade volume. If those commodities are not traded with each other, they will find it difficult to sell it
anywhere else in the international market.
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Papers by Salahuddin Ayyub
In the short run some trade diversion is expected to happen due to sudden import restrictions in the USA and Chinese market and countries with exportable surplus like India have the chance to exploit the opportunity. However, India also needs to keep a track of Chinese inflows as the chances of dumping are more likely once Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a multilateral agreement of which India and China are members, come into force. At the same time, markets where India has competition with China and the USA, would become comparatively tougher for Indian exporters post trade war as the two countries would play more aggressively in those markets to sell out their surplus.
because the world trade is increasing; instead, there are some commodities which are being traded by India and China for each other only because they are demanded in each other’s country. And the volume of trade of those
commodities is increasing because the demand for them is increasing in the other country, not because of the increase in the world trade volume. If those commodities are not traded with each other, they will find it difficult to sell it
anywhere else in the international market.
In the short run some trade diversion is expected to happen due to sudden import restrictions in the USA and Chinese market and countries with exportable surplus like India have the chance to exploit the opportunity. However, India also needs to keep a track of Chinese inflows as the chances of dumping are more likely once Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a multilateral agreement of which India and China are members, come into force. At the same time, markets where India has competition with China and the USA, would become comparatively tougher for Indian exporters post trade war as the two countries would play more aggressively in those markets to sell out their surplus.
because the world trade is increasing; instead, there are some commodities which are being traded by India and China for each other only because they are demanded in each other’s country. And the volume of trade of those
commodities is increasing because the demand for them is increasing in the other country, not because of the increase in the world trade volume. If those commodities are not traded with each other, they will find it difficult to sell it
anywhere else in the international market.