Market Outlook 2021 Review & 2022 Forward
Sarasota & Manatee Counties Combined Photo courtesy of CMS Photography
1
Welcome On the pages that follow we help you understand the housing market in Sarasota and Manatee and beyond. It is this snapshot into our immediate past
that provides us an educated view into our future, combined with the perspective of the factors that influence our tomorrow. Our goal is to provide you insight and advice so you can make better decisions in your real estate investments. We encourage you to take a few minutes to digest the data and corresponding perspectives within. Real estate, and in particular luxury real estate, is our business. Please contact one of the Realtors at Premier Sotheby’s International Realty for a more detailed discussion about the market or an analysis of a specific property. Our associates are the best equipped, educated and skilled in the business.
We are here to serve you.
2
INTERNATIONAL Real estate in 2021 surged throughout much of the world. Covid-19 resulted in travel restrictions which limited the influence of international buyers in the United States, but many foreign markets experienced significant growth in their own lands. Similar to the US, foreign markets experienced a significant increase in jobs shifting to work form home which fueled substantial market activity for larger apartments (condos) and homes in the countryside. Many foreign markets saw a similar surge in pricing and a shortage of inventory similar to the U.S.
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN THE STATES: Travel restrictions made it very difficult for foreign buyers and investors to purchase in the states. Overall the National Associate of Realtors reported a 27% reduction in the volume of property purchased by foreigners versus the same time a year prior. As travel restrictions ease we anticipate increased pent up demand from Internation-
Last year
-27%
al buyers and investors. Though increased demand is a plus, it will further impact an already undersupplied inventory.
International Outlook 2022 • • •
Moderate increase in foreign demand for residential homes Significant increase in direct foreign investment Area foreign buyers will come primarily from Canada and the UK
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
3
NATIONAL 2021 was the year of shifting demands. Covid-19 caused a major shift in real estate demand away from urban markets towards suburban, countryside and resort like markets. 2021 will be recorded as the peak in National Home sales, but 2022 will only reduce slightly. New home construction is catching up which will increase the percentage of new home sales in 2022.
2021 TOP GROWTH MARKETS Five of the top ten growth markets were in Flori-
New and Existing Homes Sales
da. That tells you where people want to live!
Austin TX
33.5%
Naples FL
32%
Boise City ID
31.5%
Ocala FL
29.7%
Punta Gorda FL
27.5%
Salt Lake UT
26.2%
Phoenix AZ
25.8%
Vero Beach FL
25.7%
Port St Lucie FL
24.9%
New York City
24.5%
8 Mil
6 Mil
National Associate of Realtors
2 Mil
Source: Fannie Mae Economic and Housing Outlook, January 2022
National Outlook 2022
DOMESTIC HOT SPOTS 2022 Job Markets
Resort / 2nd Home
• • • • •
• • • • •
Tampa Dallas Atlanta Charlotte Jacksonville
4 Mil
Florida Colorado Arizona North Carolina Idaho
•
Overall transaction volume decreases
•
Home prices continue up in high demand markets but at a slower pace
•
Middle America markets soften
•
Millennials move to strong job markets
•
Hot markets become more selective
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
4
FLORIDA A magnet for retirees and professionals Florida again ranks at the top national hot spot in 2022. It isn’t just due to luxury growth. Florida is clearly a top destination now for all age groups as well as a booming job market. Long a top retirement destination, Florida now extends its reach in multiple categories.
Considered one of the best year-round climates in the US, Florida offers a desirable combination of low taxation and growing job markets. Numerous regions rank at top of luxury destination yet others rank at the top for business growth from technology to manufacturing and of course retail.
BEST PLACE TO REITRE Sarasota and Naples take the top two spots in the US News report evidencing the best place to retire in the US. Traditionally both were considered higher end retirement destinations, but Sarasota in particular has grown significantly with young professionals who want a higher quality of life than most big urban markets can offer.
JOB GROWTH Tampa Bay region (Tampa and St Pete) ranked sixth in the nation last year but is expected to be in the top two this year. Tampa boasts a strong job market with a more affordable housing price average than many Florida markets. According to Zillow, Tampa actually ranks second Nationally for job creation (.63 new jobs per housing unit). St Pete offers age diversity with a hip downtown scene combined with fine arts. Jacksonville also ranks very high in the national job market growth putting Tampa and Jacksonville at the top of Zillow’s hottest markets for the US .
BABY BOOMERS OR MILLINEALS
Florida Outlook 2022
Baby Boomers are retiring to Florida in droves
Continued growth, stronger than much of the U.S. with solid appreciation in several key markets.
and shall continue for several more years. The surprise for many is the rapid growth of millennials in Florida is being driven by job creation. Millennials are becoming home owners as they
•
Warm and sunny climate
sired product mix may shift for Millennials, but
•
Low taxation
they are positioned well to keep Florida’s pop-
•
High job growth
ulation growth going for some time after retir-
•
Positive business climate
•
Diversified population growth
start families (just like Boomers did). The de-
ing Boomers cool off.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
5
LOCAL
Wall Street Journal report Sarasota ranked No. 2 in the nation in 2021 growth
WHAT IS MOST DESIRED LOCALLY? There is no single answer. Practically every region within the two county area saw high demand and price appreciation: downtown, waterfront, condos, single family, older homes, suburban, ranch land and more. The entire region is in demand.
Realtor.com reported in September 2021 that Sarasota “land values” increased more in the prior twelve months than any other city in the U.S.
Downtown Sarasota experienced the most visible demand as major condominium projects rose to the sky. Some fear this transition will turn Sarasota into a big city while others value the amenities and quality of life that come with a thriving downtown population. Downtown Sarasota is in extremely high demand. As always waterfront and water view brought the highest premium. Older homes in traditional
neighborhoods are in as high a demand as new, but with the caveat that buyers aren’t willing to pay a premium unless the homes are in great condition. Sarasota’s impact is stretching further north and south where historically sleepy areas like Palmetto, Parrish and Englewood are now experiencing unprecedented demand and increasing prices. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
6
SUPPLY Single Family Homes “For Sale”
Inventory continues down : 717 as of 2/1/22
Units For Sale January 1-22
A normal or “balanced” market would have 6 months supply.
Supply
471
Under $500,000
2 weeks
266
$500,000 to $1 Mil
3 weeks
154
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
1.5 months
133
Above $2.5 mil
4.3 months
1024
Combined totals
3 Weeks Supply
Month’s supply calculated by the rolling monthly average of units sold for the prior 12 months.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
7
DEMAND - Sold & Closed Single Family Homes
By Quarter - All Prices
Fewer closed sales Q4-21 vs Q4-20 But 10.8% more total sales Year over Year Is this reduction in Q3 and Q4 significant? No •
Demand remains constant.
•
There simply is not enough inventory (Supply) to meet demand..
•
Some buyers are leaving without making a purchase.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
8
DEMAND - Sold & Closed Single Family Homes - Year over Year
Year by Price
Sold & Closed
2019
12458
2020
12777
2021
11934
2019
1868
2020
2611
Year / Year
2021
4515
By Price
2019
510
2020
792
2021
1287
2019
81
2020
162
2021
374
2019
14917
2020
16342
2021
18110
Under $500,000
Units Sold
$500K to $1 Mil
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Above $2.5 mi
Combined Totals
2.6% -6.6%
Units sold under $500,000 are down due to little inventory
39.8% 72.9%
55.3% 62.5%
The higher the price group, the bigger the % growth
100% 131%
9.6% 10.8%
Only 11% for all combined because under $500,000 makes up 2/3 of the units sold which brings down the average.
This is a strong statement as to Sarasota’s continued growth in the luxury market. Buyers are placing Sarasota on par with Florida’s other luxury destinations such as Naples and Southeast Florida.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
9
Average Sold Price Single Family Homes
Average price continued up in Q4 January 2022 has continued even further price increases Does this indicate a coming price pullback? •
The market is very accelerated
•
It is unlikely the current rate of appreciation can be sustained much longer
•
The question is when will it cool, will it level or pull back
•
At this time all indications are for more moderate appreciation but not a significant pullback
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
10
CONDOMINIUM - New Projects
JOHN GLEESON Senior VP Development Services Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Premier Sotheby’s International Realty’s New Development Division wrapped up a terrific year in Sarasota. We are grateful that we were able to work on two great residential projects : Bayso by Kolter Urban, and Sage Longboat Key by PMG & Floridays. Our sales teams engaged with thousands of customers and co-operating brokers from across the country both digitally and in person to make 165 firm sales for more than a quarter of a billion dollars. Both projects are sold out. It was quite a year and here is what we learned. First, more buyers from across the country, beyond our typical
Midwest and Northeast feeder markets, have learned that Sarasota is a fantastic place to live. We believe we can count on continuous growth in Sarasota’s popularity. Buyer comfort level with more extensive digital sales process has been important. Second, since real estate development is a team sport, good partner organizations with solid hard working professional teams are critical. We were privileged to work with outstanding developers, architects, advertising agencies, sales professionals, attorneys, and many others. Third, it was very rewarding to serve 165 families as they begin a new chapter with their soon to be finished residences. We think these families will be thrilled with their new homes, new lifestyles and new friends. Both Sage and Bayso are under construction and coming along very well. They should both finish in 2022 and 2023 respectively. What’s next? We have more than twenty potential new development projects on the radar or in the pipeline. Four of these new projects are in Sarasota and are exciting opportunities. Stay tuned.
John
11
SUPPLY Condominiums & Townhomes “For Sale”
Inventory continues down : 295 as of 2/1/22
Units For Sale January 1-22
A normal or “balanced” market would have 6 months supply.
163
Supply
Under $500,000
1 week
83
$500,000 to $1 Mil
2 weeks
66
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
2.5 weeks
34
Above $2.5 mil
2.5 weeks
346 Combined totals
2 Weeks of Supply
Month’s supply calculated by the rolling monthly average of units sold for the prior 12 months.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
12
DEMAND - Sold & Closed Condominiums & Townhomes
Demand is simply outstripping supply As of February 1, 2022 there are only 295 condos for sale in Manatee and Sarasota Counties combined. 2021’s pace of sales equaled 623 sales per month Resulting in a current supply of less than 2 weeks
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
13
DEMAND - Sold & Closed Condominiums & Townhomes
Year by Price Under $500,000
Units Sold
$500K to $1 Mil
Year to Date By Year
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
By Price
Above $2.5 mi
Combined Totals
Sold & Closed
2019
4388
2020
5485
2021
5695
2019
591
2020
877
2021
1206
2019
155
2020
267
2021
389
2019
24
2020
46
2021
188
2019
5158
2020
6675
2021
7478
25 % 4%
48 % 38 %
Less % unit sales growth in 2021
72 % 46 %
92 % 309 %
Explosive growth at the high end. 112 of the 188 sales were New Construction
29 % 12 %
Why is 2021’s percentage of growth under $2.5M less than it was in 2020? •
Not enough supply to fulfill demand at low to moderate price points.
•
We would have seen more sales if we had more inventory.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
14
Average Sold Price Condominiums & Townhomes
Percentage Change versus prior year 2019 -3.1% From 2018
2020 +11.7% From 2019
2021 +34.6% From 2020
Unprecedented price appreciation We anticipate continued increase in prices in 2022 due to an imbalance between supply and demand along with an increase in new luxury condo projects.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
15
Will this Boom Market Continue in 2022? The easy answer would be yes. The first month of 2022 is just as strong if not stronger, but all markets are a reflection of bigger national and global pressures. 2022 is shaping up to be a more volatile year than 2021 but still strong. We do not see reason to believe the economy or the housing market will crash. We do see more emotion this year with continued demand but most importantly continued insufficient inventory to meet that demand.
2022—LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
It is unlikely the current pace of appreciation can continue much longer. We are seeing a growing gap between “high demand” homes that sell for top dollar overnight versus average homes that are now taking longer to sell. High demand properties will see more appreciation in the first few months (peak season) followed by a choppy period as the market adjusts to global influences. The second half of the year should be strong “if” the Federal Reserve is able to manage emotions tied to interest rates and inflation. Another wild card is the potential impact of the midterm elections which will stir emotions. The 2022 market will be a direct reflection of our economy, strong but a little crazy with a lot of influences.
NATIONALLY Overall Economy B+ Inflation continues Interest rates rise Business markets grow Emotions high
More volatile but strong
LOCALLY Continued demand Undersupplied inventory Luxury & high demand homes strongest Average homes = longer days on market Appreciation eases
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
Data from Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate.
16
Everyone deserves the extraordinary, because luxury is not about price — rather it’s about an experience. And when it comes to real estate, experience matters.
PREMIERSOTHEBYSREALTY.COM Premier Sotheby’s international Reality , Inc. All Rights Reserved. Sotheby’s International Realty is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each office is independently owned and operated. Equal Housing opportunity. This material is based upon information from the Stellar MLS, which we consider to be reliable but not guaranteed to be accurate. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, and changes without notice. If your property is listed with another real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. This material and its trademarks may not be republished or redistributed without prior written permission from Premier Sotheby’s International Realty. 17