First Quarter 2021 Sarasota & Manatee Counties
Market Update
Welcome Welcome to the Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Market Update for First Quarter 2021 covering all of Sarasota and Manatee Counties for all brokerages. The past twelve months have been an unprecedented period in our society in many ways but none more impactful than in real estate. The first three months of 2021 elevated real estate activity to a near frenzy level throughout the country, but nowhere is this truer than in Sarasota and Manatee counties where price increases and multiple offers have outpaced the majority of the state. What caused the massive surge in real estate activity? Covid? Retiring Baby-boomers? Fear of a stock market adjustment? Fear of politics? Or just the realization that life is precious and short so we should live while we can? Simple answer, all of the above. Though we cannot accurately predict the future we can take a logical look at our recent past to help understand the realities as opposed to the perception. This publication compares 1st Quarter 2020 with 1st Quarter 2021 to evidence the actual market impact since Covid-19 began. We genuinely hope you find it beneficial.
Sarasota
Longboat Key
50 Central Ave, Suite 110
517 Bay Isles Pkwy
Sarasota FL 34236
Longboat Key FL 34228
941-364-4000
941-383-2500
Lakewood Ranch
Venice
8141 Lakewood Main St N101
215 W Venice Ave
Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202
Venice Fl 34285
941-388-6809
941-412-3323
Real estate photos by Coastal Home Photography and SRQ360 Photography Data from Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate.
Contents SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SUPPLY
Inventory trend line of homes for sale Inventory by price point with number of month’s supply
DEMAND
Comparison of q1 2020 VS q1 2021 with percentage change
Homes that went Under Contract by price point Homes Closed and Sold, by price point PRICE
Average price trend
CONDOMINIUMS and TOWNHOMES SUPPLY
Inventory trend line of homes for sale Inventory by price point with number of month’s supply
DEMAND
Comparison of q1 2020 VS q1 2021 with percentage change
Homes that went Under Contract by price point Homes Closed and Sold, by price point PRICE
Average price trend
DAYS ON THE MARKET CRYSTAL BALL
SUPPLY Single Family Homes “For Sale” Sarasota and Manatee Counties as of 3/31/2021
Units For Sale
Months Supply
437
Under $500,000
.4 months
204
$500,000 to $1 Mil
.6 months
175
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
1.5 months
101
Above $2.5 mil
3.5 months
917
Combined totals
.6 Unimaginable
The above chart evidences low inventory at all price points. This is not just a Covid-19 phenomenon. Local inventory has been on a downward path for the past couple years. Lower price points have long been in short supply, but this is the first time since the mid-2000s that we have seen this significant of an inventory shortage at the moderate and higher price points.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
DEMAND Single Family Homes
Q1 2020 vs Q1 2021
Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Went Under Contract in Q1 Under $500,000
Q1:20
3131
Q1:21
3807
$500K to $1 Mil
Q1:20
618
Q1:21
1191
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Q1:20
153
Q1:21
431
Above $2.5 mi
Q1:20
21
Q1:21
86
Combined Totals
Q1:20
3923
Q1:21
5576
Sold & Closed
22%
2773
93%
518
182%
124
600%
21
42%
3157
929
332
86
3436 4504
14% 79% 168% 310% 31%
The Single Family Home market continues incredibly strong demand at all price points, but unquestionably demand is strongest in the $1 Million plus market segments. Homes going under contract were even stronger in the First Quarter than the quarter prior, thus we anticipate continued strength in closings well into the next quarter. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Average Sale Price Single Family Homes Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Why the dramatic increase in Average Sold Price? 1. Supply and demand (plain and simple) 2. New Construction sales comprised 15% of sales in Q1 2021 3. Selling at or above List Price •
50% or 2258 of the 4505 sold were at or above List Price
•
Though region wide, the highest concentration of homes sold Over List price were (a) Below $500,000, (b) On one of the Keys, (c) Waterfront
•
77% of the homes sold Over List were under $500,000
4. Multiple Offer competition—we do not have accurate stats on how many properties experienced a multiple offer situation, we know it was very significant.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
SUPPLY Condominiums & Townhomes “For Sale” Sarasota and Manatee Counties as of 3/31/2021
Units For Sale
Months Supply
329
Under $500,000
.6 months
118
$500,000 to $1 Mil
1.1 months
64
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
1.8 months
39
Above $2.5 mil
1.4 months
543
Combined totals
.7 Excessively Low
This is not just a Covid-19 phenomenon. Local inventory has been on a downward path for the past couple years. Lower price points have long been in short supply, but Condominiums in the $1 Mil to $2.5 Mil range are uncharacteristically undersupplied at this time. This shortage of Supply is expected to continue through 2021 if not longer. Demand has simply outpaced Supply.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
DEMAND Condominiums & Townhomes Q1 2020 vs Q1 2021 Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Went Under Contract in Q1 Under $500,000
Q1:20
1207
Q1:21
2026
$500K to $1 Mil
Q1:20
224
Q1:21
417
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Q1:20
93
Q1:21
148
Above $2.5 mi
Q1:20
12
Q1:21
105
Combined Totals
Q1:20
1536
Q1:21
2696
Sold & Closed
68%
1152
86%
218
59%
93
775%
9
76%
1720
330
107
84
1472 2241
49% 51% 15% 833% 52%
The Condominium / Townhome market experienced strong demand at all price points and product categories, but just like with Single Family Homes, Condominiums in the higher price points surged to new heights. Demand of both new and resale condos over $2.5 Mil sold at an unprecedented pace. We anticipate continued strength in closings well into the next quarter. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Average Sale Price Condominiums & Townhomes” Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Why the dramatic increase in Average Sold Price? 1. Supply and demand (plain and simple) 2. New Construction •
New Construction sales comprised only 9% of sales in Q1 2021
•
But New Construction sales comprised 80% of all sales over $2.5 M
3. Selling at or above List Price •
36% or 808 of the 2241 sold were at or above List Price
•
46% of the condos that sold at or above List price had a Water View
4. Multiple Offer competition—we do not have accurate stats on how many properties experienced a multiple offer situation, we know it was significant.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Days on Market Perception VS Reality Sold & Closed in Q1 2021 4504 Single Family Homes
2039 or 45% Sold in 7 or Fewer Days
2466 or 55% Averaged 85 Days
Sold & Closed in Q1 2021 2241 Condominiums
727 or 32% Sold in 7 or Fewer Days The other
1512 or 68% Averaged 102 Days
The majority of homes and condos are NOT selling overnight. Why? The same as it has always been: Location, price, condition. Buyers are eager, but not they are educated and intelligent. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Will Demand continue to outstrip Supply in the future The short answer is yes. At least for the foreseeable future in the Sarasota & Bradenton region. The current peak demand will ease off over the coming weeks and months, but we do not expect a significant drop off. Demand is real, not highly speculative. Baby boomers are retiring at an unprecedented rate and will continue to do so for the next several years. They are moving to Sunshine state to fulfill their lifelong dreams. New construction though significant cannot keep up with demand. Nearly all Single Family Home developments have put additional sales on HOLD for now because they have sold more homes than they can build. That means buyers struggle to reserve a lot at this time. Baby boomers have cash or are moving money out of other investments. Cash is king and wins competitive bid situations more times than not. The mortgage industry is on solid ground (unlike 2007). Buyers getting mortgages have to qualify and there is no indication of a significant junkbond secondary market. The Covid trend towards work from home professionals is projected to be permanent. This results in more people moving to resort or final destination locations earlier. Bottom line: Consumer confidence for moderate to higher income individuals is solid. Risk Factors? National and global economies, unemployment, cyber-attacks, energy prices, government policy, international events, expanding income gap, lower wages in service industries….. Sarasota & Bradenton or Nationally? Real estate is LOCAL. It is truer than most people realize. It is next to impossible to extract logical assumptions from broad statistics. The more specific the analysis the more valuable the information. If you are thinking of buying or selling you need an apples to apples comparison by zip code, neighborhood, street, price, product, age, quality and condition. Zillow can’t give you that. The best way to accurately assess the value of a home is to work with an experienced realtor who knows your neighborhood and has the tools and knowledge behind them to provide you with valuable guidance.
Everyone deserves the extraordinary, because luxury is not about price — rather it’s about an experience. And when it comes to real estate, experience matters.
PREMIERSOTHEBYSREALTY.COM Premier Sotheby’s international Reality , Inc. All Rights Reserved. Sotheby’s International Realty is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each office is independently owned and operated. Equal Housing opportunity. This material is based upon information from the Stellar MLS, which we consider to be reliable but not guaranteed to be accurate. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, and changes without notice. If your property is listed with another real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. This material and its trademarks may not be republished or redistributed without prior written permission from Premier Sotheby’s International Realty.