An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is useful to analyze time series data e... more An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is useful to analyze time series data either for better understanding or for forecasting future points in the series. The ARIMA model is useful even when the data show evidence of non-stationarity, where an initial differencing step is applied to remove the non-stationarity. In this study, it is tried to find out the trend in GDP at current market price of Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins approach for ARIMA model based on the GDP at current market price data of Bangladesh from 1989-90 to 2014-15. Initially, evidence of non-stationarity was found in the data using the Dickey-Fuller test and the non-stationarity was removed by taking first differences. Then using the model selection criteria, AIC, í µí°´í µí± í µí°¼í µí±í µí°´(0, 2, 1) model has been selected and it has been used to forecast GDP at current market price of Bangladesh up to 2026-27. It is hoped that the forecasts would be useful for researcher and policy makers.Most of the expert and economists favor high and efficient government planning because they think that it ensures and contributes to enlarging GDP. Planning is one of the main components of public budget. Investment is one of the main components of aggregate demand. Its plays an important role of economic growth (Ahmed, et.al. 2010). Public investment is fully conducted by the government. By development plan, the government can improve economic situation of the country. Currently, we observed that government budget and private investment simultaneously plays great role to rapid economic growth. Both the public and private investments are required to boost up real GDP at current market price (main part of public investment) has a big share compared to private investment (Mahi, et.al. 2015). Bangladesh is small country but over populated. Its economy is rapidly improving based on market price. Most of the indicators of development show their positive reaction since 1971. According to Wikipedia, Bangladesh has made significant strides in its economic sector performance since independence in 1971 (Wikipedia). The economy has improved vastly after 1990s. Most of the characteristics of public investment are present in GDP at current market price. So we can consider the maintenance current market price as the public investment. Though public investment is organized in different ways but the aim and objects are same for all countries. Finally, we can infer that GDP at current market price is the public investment in our country [Wikipedia]. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a period (quarterly or yearly). Nominal GDP estimates are commonly used to determine the economic performance of a whole country or region, and to make international comparisons. Nominal GDP per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries. Therefore, using a GDP
An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is useful to analyze time series data e... more An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is useful to analyze time series data either for better understanding or for forecasting future points in the series. The ARIMA model is useful even when the data show evidence of non-stationarity, where an initial differencing step is applied to remove the non-stationarity. In this study, it is tried to find out the trend in GDP at current market price of Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins approach for ARIMA model based on the GDP at current market price data of Bangladesh from 1989-90 to 2014-15. Initially, evidence of non-stationarity was found in the data using the Dickey-Fuller test and the non-stationarity was removed by taking first differences. Then using the model selection criteria, AIC, í µí°´í µí± í µí°¼í µí±í µí°´(0, 2, 1) model has been selected and it has been used to forecast GDP at current market price of Bangladesh up to 2026-27. It is hoped that the forecasts would be useful for researcher and policy makers.Most of the expert and economists favor high and efficient government planning because they think that it ensures and contributes to enlarging GDP. Planning is one of the main components of public budget. Investment is one of the main components of aggregate demand. Its plays an important role of economic growth (Ahmed, et.al. 2010). Public investment is fully conducted by the government. By development plan, the government can improve economic situation of the country. Currently, we observed that government budget and private investment simultaneously plays great role to rapid economic growth. Both the public and private investments are required to boost up real GDP at current market price (main part of public investment) has a big share compared to private investment (Mahi, et.al. 2015). Bangladesh is small country but over populated. Its economy is rapidly improving based on market price. Most of the indicators of development show their positive reaction since 1971. According to Wikipedia, Bangladesh has made significant strides in its economic sector performance since independence in 1971 (Wikipedia). The economy has improved vastly after 1990s. Most of the characteristics of public investment are present in GDP at current market price. So we can consider the maintenance current market price as the public investment. Though public investment is organized in different ways but the aim and objects are same for all countries. Finally, we can infer that GDP at current market price is the public investment in our country [Wikipedia]. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a period (quarterly or yearly). Nominal GDP estimates are commonly used to determine the economic performance of a whole country or region, and to make international comparisons. Nominal GDP per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries. Therefore, using a GDP
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