Papers by guilherme marques
No Brasil, é frequente a abordagem de “gestão de crise” ao lidar com eventos de cheias; enquanto ... more No Brasil, é frequente a abordagem de “gestão de crise” ao lidar com eventos de cheias; enquanto que as medidas preventivas são mais raras. A avaliação do risco de prejuízo é um aspecto importante ainda não incorporado nas análises de investimentos desse controle, sem o qual torna-se difícil identificar medidas que sejam eficazes sem onerar excessivamente o município ou os usuários. O presente artigo incorpora o risco de prejuízo às metodologias já existentes de estimativas do dano por profundidade de submersão, agregando um ponderador de frequência de recorrência desse dano. Foram utilizados simulação hidráulica e avaliação econômica, possibilitando relacionar a frequência de um evento às profundidades de submersão da mancha de inundação e características socioeconômicas de cada área. Os resultados permitem concluir que em áreas urbanas com densa ocupação consolidada, mesmo com menor magnitude da inundação, o risco pode ser elevado, justificando ações prioritárias para sua mitigaçã...
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<p&amp... more <p>Advances in probabilistic seasonal flow forecasts sparked renewed interests to improve water management, through explicit incorporation of forecasts and forecast uncertainties into decision-making. Here, we develop a three-stage stochastic programming model to optimize integrated agricultural and urban water management decisions by directly considering probabilistic seasonal flow forecasts. The model represents urban water users which make short-term and long-term water conservation choices to maximize supply reliability and minimize conservation costs; it also represents irrigators which optimize land and water allocations to annual and perennial crops to maximize farm revenue, besides water transfers between agricultural and urban uses. Long-term urban conservation measures, areas of perennial crops, and capital investments in onfarm irrigation are considered in the first stage; annual crop areas, which depend on forecasted flows, are considered in the second stage; and reductions of irrigated annual and perennial crop areas due to water scarcity, conjunctive use operations, and water transfers informed by realized hydrologic year types are considered in the third stage. The temporal hierarchy of these decisions intends to approximate actual decision-making process by simultaneously considering long- and short-term decisions, forecasts, and forecasting skills. This paper provides a framework for quantifying the value of probabilistic forecasting information and forecasting skills, for managing complex regional water systems, including agricultural and urban water uses, water transfers, and conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater.</p>
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Águas Subterrâneas
O uso de água subterrânea vem crescendo como alternativa para o atendimento das demandas hídricas... more O uso de água subterrânea vem crescendo como alternativa para o atendimento das demandas hídricas, porém muitas vezes sem o manejo adequado. Este trabalho apresenta o conceito do uso conjunto dos recursos hídricos superficiais e subterrâneos enquanto ferramenta para criar o elo de conexão entre o conhecimento sobre o meio físico e as decisões no âmbito da gestão da água. São identificadas possíveis estratégias de uso conjunto para uma região no sul do Brasil a partir do cálculo do potencial de benefícios econômicos com uso de ferramenta matemática de simulação e otimização hidroeconômica. Os resultados apontam redução da escassez hídrica e aumento no atendimento das demandas com o uso do manancial subterrâneo, sendo também analisada a integração das estratégias frente à legislação brasileira de recursos hídricos.
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Water Science and Technology: Water Supply
ABSTRACT The San Francisco Integration Project is a Brazilian government project aiming to bring ... more ABSTRACT The San Francisco Integration Project is a Brazilian government project aiming to bring water to the semiarid region of the northeast. The project provides funding for two diversions of the San Francisco River, supplementing the supply of local water in four Brazilian states. The Piranhas-Açú and Jaguaribe basins will become the largest recipients of these water deliveries. In this paper, we propose methodologies to state in monetary terms the technical coefficients of water use for the economic sectors associated with Urban Supply (US) and Agricultural Irrigation (AI) in different regions of these basins. These coefficients show that for the US economic sectors, at a certain level of urbanization the productivity of water is decreasing. The coefficients of AI obtained are much lower than those of the US. The coefficients of AI, when calculated by crop, showed that there is generally an inadequate crop mix in the two basins. When this is associated with the low efficiency of water use, the result is a low economic value per cubic meter of water allocated to the sector. This implies, for both sectors, a need for incentives to use water in a more efficient way
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Journal of Hydrology
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Educacao Tecnologia, 2009
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Aguas Subterrâneas, Jul 23, 2012
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Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science, 2012
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Ambiente & Água - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science
he Banguelo creek micro-basin, in the sub-basin Bom Jesus contributes for the formation of Pampul... more he Banguelo creek micro-basin, in the sub-basin Bom Jesus contributes for the formation of Pampulha reservoir, along with other contributors. The pollution in this reservoir is considered one of the major environmental problems of the city of Belo Horizonte. This paper evaluated the effect of land use and occupation in Banguelo Creek on its water quality, considering the seasonal cycle in several points of the micro-basin. The analyzed parameters for monitoring the water quality were: pH, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, phosphate, nitrate, total nitrogen, temperature, BOD5, COD and thermotolerant coliforms. The results were analyzed based on a floristic survey and on land occupation conditions in the micro-basin. Water quality index (WQINSF) was calculated and the points with the highest degree of pollution were identified. Analysis of WQI indicated that the water quality fell in the classes “average” and “bad” during dry season, with improvement for “good” and “average” in the rainy s...
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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2014
Many river basins throughout the world are increasingly under pressure as water demands keep risi... more Many river basins throughout the world are increasingly under pressure as water demands keep rising due to population growth, industrialization, urbanization and rising living standards. In the past, the typical answer to meet those demands focused on the supply-side and involved the construction of hydraulic infrastructures to capture more water from surface water bodies and from aquifers. As river basins were being more and more developed, downstream water users and ecosystems have become increasingly dependent on the management actions taken by upstream users. The increased interconnectedness between water users, aquatic ecosystems and the built environment is further compounded by climate change and its impact on the water cycle. Those pressures mean that it has become increasingly important to measure and account for changes in water fluxes and their corresponding economic value as they progress throughout the river system. Such basin water accounting should provide policy make...
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Water Resources Research, 2015
ABSTRACT Efficient re-allocation and conjunctive operation of existing water supplies is gaining ... more ABSTRACT Efficient re-allocation and conjunctive operation of existing water supplies is gaining importance as demands grow, competitions among users intensify, and new supplies become more costly. This paper analyzes the roles and benefits of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and market-based water transfers in an integrated regional water system where agricultural and urban water users coordinate supply and demand management based on supply reliability and economic values of water. Agricultural users optimize land and water use for annual and perennial crops to maximize farm income, while urban users choose short-term and long-term water conservation actions to maintain reliability and minimize costs. The temporal order of these decisions is represented in a two-stage optimization that maximizes the net expected benefits of crop production, urban conservation and water management including conjunctive use and water transfers. Long-term decisions are in the first stage and short-term decisions are in a second stage based on probabilities of water availability events. Analytical and numerical analyses are made. Results show that conjunctive use and water transfers can substantially stabilize farmer's income and reduce system costs by reducing expensive urban water conservation or construction. Water transfers can equalize marginal values of water across users, while conjunctive use minimizes water marginal value differences in time. Model results are useful for exploring the integration of different water demands and supplies through water transfers, conjunctive use, and conservation, providing valuable insights for improving system management.
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This paper describes an innovative project administered by the World Bank to evaluate the implica... more This paper describes an innovative project administered by the World Bank to evaluate the implications of climate change for water management in the Northeast Region of Brazil. In 2009, Brazil’s National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Águas, ANA) asked the World Bank to help design and implement an analysis of climate change impacts on water demand and sup-ply, water allocation, and socioeconomic development. The pro-ject, implemented from 2010 to 2012, led to the development of state-of-the-art climate change and water system modeling for the semiarid and drought-stricken Northeast. The World Bank and its partners accomplished this through participatory work-shops involving a multidisciplinary group of Brazilian and inter-national academia, water resources administrations from federal and state levels, and stakeholders of two river basins in North-east Brazil, Jaguaribe (state of Ceará) and Piranhas-Açu (states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba). In addition to the techni-cal o...
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Águas Subterrâneas, 2012
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008, 2008
Water Transfer Analysis in the São Francisco River Basin with Mathematical Simulation Planning To... more Water Transfer Analysis in the São Francisco River Basin with Mathematical Simulation Planning Tool. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 316, 606 (2008)]. Guilherme Fernandes Marques, Pedro Henrique Antonaci Gama, Ruth Silveira Borges, Maria Cristina Ramos de Carvalho. ...
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, 2011
Modeling and Optimization of Fish Passage Structures. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 414, 440 (2011... more Modeling and Optimization of Fish Passage Structures. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 414, 440 (2011)]. Guilherme Fernandes Marques, Jessica dos Santos Fernandes, Hersília Santos, Inaês La Sala. Abstract. Dams are important ...
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, 2011
Integration of GIS and Hydraulic Modeling to Evaluate the Cost of Ecological Stream Flow Recovery... more Integration of GIS and Hydraulic Modeling to Evaluate the Cost of Ecological Stream Flow Recovery in Irapé Dam, Brazil. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 414, 433 (2011)]. Natália Ribeiro Caldas Fernandes, Guilherme Fernandes Marques. Abstract. ...
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, 2011
Improving Sustainable Sites through the Use of Native Species to Reduce Water Demand in Landscape... more Improving Sustainable Sites through the Use of Native Species to Reduce Water Demand in Landscape Projects. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 414, 430 (2011)]. Angélica Damasceno, Guilherme Fernandes Marques, Maria Guadalupe Carvalho Fernandes. Abstract. ...
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Watershed Management Conference 2010: Innovations in Watershed Management under Land Use and Climate Change, 2010
Study of Artificial Flood Generation for Ecological Stream Flow Recovery Downstream of Irapé Dam,... more Study of Artificial Flood Generation for Ecological Stream Flow Recovery Downstream of Irapé Dam, Brazil. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 394, 43 (2010)]. Guilherme Fernandes Marques, Fernando Roberto Fillho Martins, Natália Fernandes. Abstract. ...
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, 2011
Hydrodynamic Characterization of a Karst Aquifer in the Brazilian Semi‐Arid Region with Time Seri... more Hydrodynamic Characterization of a Karst Aquifer in the Brazilian Semi‐Arid Region with Time Series Analysis of Hydrology Data. [ASCE Conference Proceedings 414, 100 (2011)]. Marques Guilherme Fernandes, Stela Cota ...
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Papers by guilherme marques