This research work, studied the hybrid of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ge... more This research work, studied the hybrid of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models that best fit monthly crude oil price volatility of Nigeria between January, 2010 to March, 2021. The study collected secondary data from quarterly Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, June, 2021 on monthly crude oil price of Nigeria to compute the monthly crude oil price returns. The ARIMA-GARCH modeling was adopted for this work. The series was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Several ARIMA -GARCH models were applied to the monthly crude oil price returns to ascertain the best fit model for the series. The ARIMA (2, 0, 5)-GARCH(1,4) model was selected as the best fit for the data since it has minimum values of Akaike Information Criteria and Mean Squared Errors. The forecasted period showed a crude oil price with an unstable monthly crude oil price returns. Therefore, the government...
West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research, 2012
This paper presents a fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion, and Bayes criterion for performing a... more This paper presents a fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion, and Bayes criterion for performing a discriminant analysis. These criteria estimates a linear discriminant analysis on two groups (or regions) of contrived observations. The discriminant functions and classification rules for these criteria are also discussed. A linear discriminant analysis is performed in order to determine the best criteria among Fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion and Bayes criterion by comparing their apparent error rate (APER). Any of these criteria with the least error rate is assumed to be the best criterion. After comparing their apparent error rate (APER), we observed that, the three criteria have the same confusion matrix and the same apparent error rate. Therefore we conclude that none of the three criteria is better than each other. Key Words: Fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion, Bayes criterion and Apparent Error rate
West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research, 2013
This paper has examined time series analysis of Nigeria domestic crude oil production, the descri... more This paper has examined time series analysis of Nigeria domestic crude oil production, the descriptive approach of time series analysis. Buys-Ballot table procedure was used in assessing variance stability (transformation), choice of model and seasonal effect. Inverse square root transformation was carried to stabilize the variance, quadratic trend was fitted and the error component was found to be random and normally distributed with mean zero and some constant variance i.e. e ~ N(0,0.022270) t . Keywords : Buys-Ballot Table, Data Transformation, Periodic Averages, Choice of Model, Trend Assessment, Seasonal Indices
South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 2019
This research work focused on economic determinants that contribute to Commercial Banks Branches ... more This research work focused on economic determinants that contribute to Commercial Banks Branches Expansion in Nigeria from 1988–2016 covering 29 years. This study used secondary data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2016 and the Poisson Regression Analysis was used in the analysis. Based on the analysis from this work, it was discovered that there was a strong relationship existing between commercial banks branches expansion, population growth rate, bank assets, savings deposit and gross domestic product growth rate. Therefore, this study concludes that population growth rate, bank assets, savings deposit and gross domestic product growth rate influence commercial banks branches expansion in Nigeria. Finally, a recommendation was made that commercial banks management should consider these factors- population size of the area of interest, the bank asset, savings deposit and economic activity of the area of interest before the location of a branch.
This study examined the probability distribution that best described the quarterly economic growt... more This study examined the probability distribution that best described the quarterly economic growth rate of Nigeria between 1960- 2015. The study collected secondary data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2015 on Gross Domestic Product to compute the economic growth rate of Nigeria. Six theoretical statistical distributions were fitted via Normal Distribution, Logistic Distribution, Laplace Distribution, Cauchy Distribution, Gumbel (Largest Extreme Value) Distribution and Generalized Logistic Distribution. The Laplace Distribution fitted the data as confirmed by Kolmogorov Simonov goodness of fit test, Akaike Information Criteria and Bayes Information Criteria. The probabilities of economic growth rate behaviours were obtained from the best fit distribution. The analysis showed that the chance of obtaining a negative quarterly economic growth rate is 28%. The chance of an economic recession is 8%. Also, the probability of having a positive single digit quarterly...
Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 2019
This research work studied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that best f... more This research work studied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that best fitted monthly stock market returns of the Nigerian Stock Exchange between January, 2008 to September, 2018. The study collected secondary data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2018 on monthly stock market index of NSE to compute the monthly stock market returns. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling was adopted for this work. The series was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Several ARIMA (p, d, q) models were applied to the monthly stock market returns to ascertain the best fit model for the series. The ARIMA (2, 0, 3) model was selected as the best fit for the data since it has minimum values of Akaike Information Criteria and Mean Squared Errors. The forecasted period showed a market with an unstable monthly stock market returns. Therefore, investors were advised to weigh the risks before venturing into the market to invest.
This research work, studied the hybrid of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ge... more This research work, studied the hybrid of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models that best fit monthly crude oil price volatility of Nigeria between January, 2010 to March, 2021. The study collected secondary data from quarterly Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, June, 2021 on monthly crude oil price of Nigeria to compute the monthly crude oil price returns. The ARIMA-GARCH modeling was adopted for this work. The series was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Several ARIMA -GARCH models were applied to the monthly crude oil price returns to ascertain the best fit model for the series. The ARIMA (2, 0, 5)-GARCH(1,4) model was selected as the best fit for the data since it has minimum values of Akaike Information Criteria and Mean Squared Errors. The forecasted period showed a crude oil price with an unstable monthly crude oil price returns. Therefore, the government...
West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research, 2012
This paper presents a fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion, and Bayes criterion for performing a... more This paper presents a fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion, and Bayes criterion for performing a discriminant analysis. These criteria estimates a linear discriminant analysis on two groups (or regions) of contrived observations. The discriminant functions and classification rules for these criteria are also discussed. A linear discriminant analysis is performed in order to determine the best criteria among Fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion and Bayes criterion by comparing their apparent error rate (APER). Any of these criteria with the least error rate is assumed to be the best criterion. After comparing their apparent error rate (APER), we observed that, the three criteria have the same confusion matrix and the same apparent error rate. Therefore we conclude that none of the three criteria is better than each other. Key Words: Fisher’s criterion, Welch’s criterion, Bayes criterion and Apparent Error rate
West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research, 2013
This paper has examined time series analysis of Nigeria domestic crude oil production, the descri... more This paper has examined time series analysis of Nigeria domestic crude oil production, the descriptive approach of time series analysis. Buys-Ballot table procedure was used in assessing variance stability (transformation), choice of model and seasonal effect. Inverse square root transformation was carried to stabilize the variance, quadratic trend was fitted and the error component was found to be random and normally distributed with mean zero and some constant variance i.e. e ~ N(0,0.022270) t . Keywords : Buys-Ballot Table, Data Transformation, Periodic Averages, Choice of Model, Trend Assessment, Seasonal Indices
South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 2019
This research work focused on economic determinants that contribute to Commercial Banks Branches ... more This research work focused on economic determinants that contribute to Commercial Banks Branches Expansion in Nigeria from 1988–2016 covering 29 years. This study used secondary data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2016 and the Poisson Regression Analysis was used in the analysis. Based on the analysis from this work, it was discovered that there was a strong relationship existing between commercial banks branches expansion, population growth rate, bank assets, savings deposit and gross domestic product growth rate. Therefore, this study concludes that population growth rate, bank assets, savings deposit and gross domestic product growth rate influence commercial banks branches expansion in Nigeria. Finally, a recommendation was made that commercial banks management should consider these factors- population size of the area of interest, the bank asset, savings deposit and economic activity of the area of interest before the location of a branch.
This study examined the probability distribution that best described the quarterly economic growt... more This study examined the probability distribution that best described the quarterly economic growth rate of Nigeria between 1960- 2015. The study collected secondary data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2015 on Gross Domestic Product to compute the economic growth rate of Nigeria. Six theoretical statistical distributions were fitted via Normal Distribution, Logistic Distribution, Laplace Distribution, Cauchy Distribution, Gumbel (Largest Extreme Value) Distribution and Generalized Logistic Distribution. The Laplace Distribution fitted the data as confirmed by Kolmogorov Simonov goodness of fit test, Akaike Information Criteria and Bayes Information Criteria. The probabilities of economic growth rate behaviours were obtained from the best fit distribution. The analysis showed that the chance of obtaining a negative quarterly economic growth rate is 28%. The chance of an economic recession is 8%. Also, the probability of having a positive single digit quarterly...
Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 2019
This research work studied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that best f... more This research work studied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that best fitted monthly stock market returns of the Nigerian Stock Exchange between January, 2008 to September, 2018. The study collected secondary data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2018 on monthly stock market index of NSE to compute the monthly stock market returns. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling was adopted for this work. The series was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Several ARIMA (p, d, q) models were applied to the monthly stock market returns to ascertain the best fit model for the series. The ARIMA (2, 0, 3) model was selected as the best fit for the data since it has minimum values of Akaike Information Criteria and Mean Squared Errors. The forecasted period showed a market with an unstable monthly stock market returns. Therefore, investors were advised to weigh the risks before venturing into the market to invest.
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