This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectat... more This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectation on Chinese RMB internationalization and empirically test the interactive effects among short-term capital flows, RMB appreciation expectation and the internationalization process using a VAR model with monthly data ranging from February 2004 to December 2020. The results suggest that RMB exchange rate appreciation could lead to an increase in the foreign demand for RMB and RMB denominated assets, while RMB internationalization would attract more short-term capital inflow due to the reduced transaction costs. The empirical evidence from the VAR model estimation confirms the finding that expected RMB appreciation induces short-term capital inflow and promotes RMB internationalization. The robustness checks confirm the evidence. The results have important policy implication for RMB internationalization and for maintaining a sound and stable financial system
A great deal of the foreign aid–growth literature finds that the net effect of aggregate aid on t... more A great deal of the foreign aid–growth literature finds that the net effect of aggregate aid on total growth appears to be insignificant. This study argues that this aid–growth nexus can be better explained by testing the variation responses for each of growth sectors to their corresponding allocated aid inflows. It aims to investigate the heterogeneous effects of sectorally allocated aid inflows on their corresponding growth sectors (industry, agriculture and services) using data from 37 Sub-Saharan African and MENA-recipient developing nations from 1996 to 2017. We constructed two measures; one is the (SAASG) Sectoral-Allocated-Aid-for Sectoral-Growth, which was used as a major measure in the first two econometric specifications, and another one was the revised Clemens early-impact aid categories measure, which was used as the secondary measure in the third specification. The seemingly unrelated regression framework (SUR) was employed as the basic estimation approach, while the GM...
Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stab... more Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stability. This study is among the first few to use three different distance-to-risk measures to empirically assess the domestic interbank linkages and systemic contagion risk of the Chinese banking industry, by using bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model on data collected from eight prominent Chinese banks for the period 2006–2018. The results show a relatively high correlation among almost all the banks, suggesting an interconnectedness among the banks. We found evidence that the banking system is exposed to significant domestic contagion risks arising from systemic defaults. Given that Chinese markets deliver weak signals of forthcoming stress in banking sectors, new policy intervention is crucial to resolve the hidden stress in the system. The results have important policy implications and will provide scholars and policymakers further insight into the risk contagion orig...
This article analyses the exchange rate shocks and its pass-through to various level of prices in... more This article analyses the exchange rate shocks and its pass-through to various level of prices in two emerging economies and one developed country by employing a structural VAR framework over the period 1990-2011. We assess the pass-through into import, export, producer and consumer prices in Australia, China and India in industries including mining, agriculture and manufacturing. We test whether the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is more complete in any particular sector and estimate the pass-through to consumer prices to investigate whether there is any linkage between the pass-through and the average inflation rate across these countries. The impulse responses indicate that exchange rates have less effect in the rising mining and natural resources prices in Australia than China and India. Moreover, pass-through of exchange rate to aggregate consumer prices is greater in China and India than Australia. This will have important policy implication for the monetary autho...
This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectat... more This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectation on Chinese RMB internationalization and empirically test the interactive effects among short-term capital flows, RMB appreciation expectation and the internationalization process using a VAR model with monthly data ranging from February 2004 to December 2020. The results suggest that RMB exchange rate appreciation could lead to an increase in the foreign demand for RMB and RMB denominated assets, while RMB internationalization would attract more short-term capital inflow due to the reduced transaction costs. The empirical evidence from the VAR model estimation confirms the finding that expected RMB appreciation induces short-term capital inflow and promotes RMB internationalization. The robustness checks confirm the evidence. The results have important policy implication for RMB internationalization and for maintaining a sound and stable financial system
A great deal of the foreign aid–growth literature finds that the net effect of aggregate aid on t... more A great deal of the foreign aid–growth literature finds that the net effect of aggregate aid on total growth appears to be insignificant. This study argues that this aid–growth nexus can be better explained by testing the variation responses for each of growth sectors to their corresponding allocated aid inflows. It aims to investigate the heterogeneous effects of sectorally allocated aid inflows on their corresponding growth sectors (industry, agriculture and services) using data from 37 Sub-Saharan African and MENA-recipient developing nations from 1996 to 2017. We constructed two measures; one is the (SAASG) Sectoral-Allocated-Aid-for Sectoral-Growth, which was used as a major measure in the first two econometric specifications, and another one was the revised Clemens early-impact aid categories measure, which was used as the secondary measure in the third specification. The seemingly unrelated regression framework (SUR) was employed as the basic estimation approach, while the GM...
Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stab... more Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stability. This study is among the first few to use three different distance-to-risk measures to empirically assess the domestic interbank linkages and systemic contagion risk of the Chinese banking industry, by using bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model on data collected from eight prominent Chinese banks for the period 2006–2018. The results show a relatively high correlation among almost all the banks, suggesting an interconnectedness among the banks. We found evidence that the banking system is exposed to significant domestic contagion risks arising from systemic defaults. Given that Chinese markets deliver weak signals of forthcoming stress in banking sectors, new policy intervention is crucial to resolve the hidden stress in the system. The results have important policy implications and will provide scholars and policymakers further insight into the risk contagion orig...
This article analyses the exchange rate shocks and its pass-through to various level of prices in... more This article analyses the exchange rate shocks and its pass-through to various level of prices in two emerging economies and one developed country by employing a structural VAR framework over the period 1990-2011. We assess the pass-through into import, export, producer and consumer prices in Australia, China and India in industries including mining, agriculture and manufacturing. We test whether the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is more complete in any particular sector and estimate the pass-through to consumer prices to investigate whether there is any linkage between the pass-through and the average inflation rate across these countries. The impulse responses indicate that exchange rates have less effect in the rising mining and natural resources prices in Australia than China and India. Moreover, pass-through of exchange rate to aggregate consumer prices is greater in China and India than Australia. This will have important policy implication for the monetary autho...
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