To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from... more To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from 2017 to 2047. Large population study. Population living in private households of the European Union (EU) and neighbouring countries. Participants from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions aged 55 years and older and living in one of 26 EU and neighbouring countries, who answered the health section of the questionnaire. Prevalence of severe long-term activity limitations of particular subpopulations (ie, 55+, 65+, 75+ and 85+ years) by sex and country. We find a huge variation in the prevalence of self-reported severe long-term limitations across Europe for both sexes. However, in 2017, about 20% of the female population aged 65 years and above and about 16% of their male counterparts are expected to report severe long-term activity limitations after accounting for differences in reporting. Accounting for cultural differences in reporting, we expect that European countries w...
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental... more The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental research institution founded in 1972 by leading scientific organizations in 12 countries. Situated near Vienna, in the center of Europe, IIASA has been producing valuable scientific ...
The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environm... more The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environment is highly complex and full of traps. Studies in this field often focus on just one specific mechanism by which population changes impact on environmental changes (or vice versa) in very specific settings. A broad variety of analytical tools, ranging from GIS-based studies over qualitative/anthropological research to computer simulation models, and the fact that these studies need to draw on several scientific disciplines, tend to make such studies less straightforward than the more conventional studies within one discipline. The combination of this analytical complexity with the fact that population-environment interdependencies are often perceived as being of greatest importance for the future makes this field particularly vulnerable to advocacy groups that have another agenda than the scientific one. In this presentation I will try to review the field and summarize the findings of ...
This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant... more This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant by the European Research Council (ERC). It will apply two distinctly demographic concepts to address questions that go far beyond demography. It will study the indicators of and the conditions for sustainable human wellbeing. The wellbeing indicators proposed here will be based on life table methods and the recently operationalized concept of Demographic Metabolism – modelling social change through the replacement of generations – will be used to get a quantitative analytical handle on the temporal dynamics of improving human wellbeing. The project will theoretically develop, empirically estimate, test and forecast indicators of human wellbeing that are based on life table methods and hence reflect the basic – but often overlooked fact – that being alive is a necessary prerequisite for enjoying any quality of life. But since mere survival is not sufficient as an ultimate goal for most p...
The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging... more The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100. The definitions of these scenarios follow those of a recent study (Lutz, 1991) on Europe and North America. They range from constant rates to assuming replacement fertility versus a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1, mortality stagnation versus a strong increase in life expectancy, and no immigration versus 30,000 migrants per year. The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario.
A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to t... more A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to the middle of the 21st century. I consider the biodiversity of Namibia within a biophysical and social environmental framework. Namibia is a large, semi-arid to arid ...
To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from... more To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from 2017 to 2047. Large population study. Population living in private households of the European Union (EU) and neighbouring countries. Participants from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions aged 55 years and older and living in one of 26 EU and neighbouring countries, who answered the health section of the questionnaire. Prevalence of severe long-term activity limitations of particular subpopulations (ie, 55+, 65+, 75+ and 85+ years) by sex and country. We find a huge variation in the prevalence of self-reported severe long-term limitations across Europe for both sexes. However, in 2017, about 20% of the female population aged 65 years and above and about 16% of their male counterparts are expected to report severe long-term activity limitations after accounting for differences in reporting. Accounting for cultural differences in reporting, we expect that European countries w...
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental... more The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental research institution founded in 1972 by leading scientific organizations in 12 countries. Situated near Vienna, in the center of Europe, IIASA has been producing valuable scientific ...
The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environm... more The scientific analysis of the interactions between the human population and its natural environment is highly complex and full of traps. Studies in this field often focus on just one specific mechanism by which population changes impact on environmental changes (or vice versa) in very specific settings. A broad variety of analytical tools, ranging from GIS-based studies over qualitative/anthropological research to computer simulation models, and the fact that these studies need to draw on several scientific disciplines, tend to make such studies less straightforward than the more conventional studies within one discipline. The combination of this analytical complexity with the fact that population-environment interdependencies are often perceived as being of greatest importance for the future makes this field particularly vulnerable to advocacy groups that have another agenda than the scientific one. In this presentation I will try to review the field and summarize the findings of ...
This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant... more This paper presents the outline of a new project which was recently approved as an Advanced Grant by the European Research Council (ERC). It will apply two distinctly demographic concepts to address questions that go far beyond demography. It will study the indicators of and the conditions for sustainable human wellbeing. The wellbeing indicators proposed here will be based on life table methods and the recently operationalized concept of Demographic Metabolism – modelling social change through the replacement of generations – will be used to get a quantitative analytical handle on the temporal dynamics of improving human wellbeing. The project will theoretically develop, empirically estimate, test and forecast indicators of human wellbeing that are based on life table methods and hence reflect the basic – but often overlooked fact – that being alive is a necessary prerequisite for enjoying any quality of life. But since mere survival is not sufficient as an ultimate goal for most p...
The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging... more The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100. The definitions of these scenarios follow those of a recent study (Lutz, 1991) on Europe and North America. They range from constant rates to assuming replacement fertility versus a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1, mortality stagnation versus a strong increase in life expectancy, and no immigration versus 30,000 migrants per year. The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario.
A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to t... more A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to the middle of the 21st century. I consider the biodiversity of Namibia within a biophysical and social environmental framework. Namibia is a large, semi-arid to arid ...
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