This is the first-phase report. In this phase of reporting, we examine the pattern of regional ca... more This is the first-phase report. In this phase of reporting, we examine the pattern of regional casino gross gaming revenues (GGR) in Atlantic City (AC) and its regional market alongside its relationship to aggregate regional personal income. To give a sense of competition to New Jersey's (NJ) casinos in the market place, we review the chronology of casino openings and closings both in NJ and nearby in other states. This enables us to ascertain their effects upon regionwide and AC net gaming revenues as well as on casino survival.The main new finding in this report is that there has been relatively little variation over time in the ratio of regional GGR to aggregate regional personal income. Interestingly, this ratio tends to vary between 0.45 and 0.50%, which suggests that the area market for gaming has been saturated. And the main story of the past twelve years, which is rather well known, has been that the successful rise of casinos in eastern Pennsylvania has been at the expe...
December 2017 will mark the tenth anniversary of the last business-cycle peak in the United State... more December 2017 will mark the tenth anniversary of the last business-cycle peak in the United States as well as the tenth anniversary of the start of the Great 2007–2009 Recession (December 2007–June 2009).1 During this ten-year period, the longstanding economic and demographic foundations of New Jersey were fundamentally disrupted and transformed: 2017 New Jersey looks quite different from 2007 New Jersey. The state's recovery from the Great Recession has been less than robust, and there is still a high degree of uncertainty about future economic prosperity.
The Grow New Jersey and Economic Redevelopment and Growth (ERG) Programs were created through the... more The Grow New Jersey and Economic Redevelopment and Growth (ERG) Programs were created through the Economic Opportunity Act of 2013 (EOA), with the intent to incentivize the creation and retention of jobs in New Jersey (Grow NJ) and enable commercial and residential development that would not be completed under traditional financing mechanisms (ERG), particularly in economically distressed areas of the state. This report reviews the administration of these incentives to date by the New Jersey Economic Development Authority (NJEDA) and offers a series of recommendations for reconsidering and revising the parameters under which incentive applications are evaluated.
Job recovery rates are calculated for all 50 states. The rate measures the percentage of a state&... more Job recovery rates are calculated for all 50 states. The rate measures the percentage of a state's private-sector employment losses during and after the recession that have been recovered as of June 2012. As a benchmark for comparing individual states, the national private-sector job recovery rate is 49.3 percent.Public-sector employment (federal, state, and local) increased well into the national recession. It was affected by numerous factors (federal countercyclical spending, deep tax-revenue declines for state and local governments, and varying political responses at the state and local levels in terms of tax increases versus service reductions).
This report presents the findings of the second phase of a study commissioned by the Office of Re... more This report presents the findings of the second phase of a study commissioned by the Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis, New Jersey Department of the Treasury. The report was requested on behalf of the Governor's Atlantic City Working Group for the purpose of understanding the capacity of the Atlantic City casino marketplace. Phase I of the analysis found that Atlantic City's gaming market as a share of aggregate regional personal income has appeared to be largely saturated since as early as 1993. At the same time, Atlantic City's share of regional gaming revenue dropped significantly over the period (from 100% in 1995 to 26% in 2018), as competition from new facilities eroded what was once the city's virtual monopoly on regional casino gambling. Phase II of the study uses two modeling approaches to estimate the net change in Atlantic City's gross gaming revenue that would result from the introduction of a 2,000-slot machine casino in Philadelphia and/or New...
Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits ... more Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits you. Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Executive Summary N ew Jersey's large number of school districts and municipal and county governments, together with its major, constitutionally based involvement in school aid and its extensive intergovernmental aid programs, result in significant tax revenue flows from the counties and regions to state government and a return flow of aid from the state to the counties and regions. This report examines the spatial distribution of two major taxes (the gross income tax and the state sales tax) and three major sta...
Executive Summary T his report estimates the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy ... more Executive Summary T his report estimates the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the economy of New Jersey using the R/ECON™ forecasting model of the state's economy. The model consists of more than 250 quarterly time-series equations and 30 employment sectors. The analysis takes into account both the economic losses resulting from the hurricane and the offsetting positive economic impacts associated with recovery and reconstruction spending in the months and years following the storm. However, the estimates of impacts depend upon the restoration expenditures actually being made. If the funds for these restoration and recovery expenditures are not made available, the offsetting positive impacts to the economy will not occur and the New Jersey economy will be significantly damaged. See Section 3 for estimates of the negative impacts if restoration expenditures are not made. Based on estimated initial economic losses (not including damages to physical structures...
Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright ... more Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Article begins on next page
Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits ... more Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits you. Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Competing casinos in Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New York State continue to erode revenues at Atl... more Competing casinos in Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New York State continue to erode revenues at Atlantic City’s casinos. Yet, recent evidence from nascent aspects of New Jersey gaming industry (sports betting and Internet gaming) suggest that the Atlantic City market might not be saturated. To assess whether the market is saturated or not, we first draw on the greater region’s casino gaming revenue history as well as county aggregate personal income and empirically derive the spatial extent of Atlantic City’s market. We then find a measure—regional gross gaming revenues (GGR) as a share of regional aggregate personal income—that suggests the market has been fairly saturated since at least 1990. We then apply two models—Huff’s and a time-series regression—to estimate impact of the addition of new casinos upon those in Atlantic City. Both suggest diminishing returns to scale of additional city slot machines upon the GGR within New Jersey. They also both show that new casinos in competin...
This report estimates both the one-time and the on-going economic and fiscal benefits from transp... more This report estimates both the one-time and the on-going economic and fiscal benefits from transportation investments. The report provides the new Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) with two general software programs to enable both types of benefits to be estimated for specific highway transportation projects. These programs can assist NJDOT in its planning and economic analysis. The report uses past NJDOT highway transportation projects to identify the myriad inputs used in highway projects and the expenditures made on these inputs for 40 project types and locations (e.g., bridge replacement, road widening, intersection improvements, etc. in North and South New Jersey). Using the R/ECON™ Input-Output Model, estimates of the one-time benefits of each project type/location are made and a general-use software program is developed. This Transportation Investment Impact Estimator is applied to NJDOT’s Ten-Year Capital Plan. The analysis indicates that over 95,000 job-years, an ...
Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright ... more Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Article begins on next page
Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright ... more Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Article begins on next page
Abstract The hybrid hurricane and storm event dubbed “SuperStorm Sandy” of October 2012 was the m... more Abstract The hybrid hurricane and storm event dubbed “SuperStorm Sandy” of October 2012 was the most costly natural disaster to hit the US Atlantic coast, and the second most costly to affect the United States. This extreme weather event presented an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of tidal salt marshes and maritime forests in buffering adjacent development from storm-related damage. To address this question of how well did or under what conditions did coastal ecosystems buffer adjacent human development, we undertook to quantify the incremental monetary value that a hectare or linear extent of fronting salt marsh and/or maritime forest had on protecting the built environment of the back-bay communities in the Barnegat Bay region of New Jersey, USA. Statistical modeling was used to estimate the relationship between the spatial extent and characteristics of fronting coastal wetlands with the various damage metrics derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency National Flood Insurance Program payout and Preliminary Property Modeling Task Force damage data at the scale of the individual housing unit. While salt marshes may be effective in diminishing wave energies and buffering adjacent development under normal conditions, in the case of SuperStorm Sandy, we find no evidence that New Jersey's extensive coastal marshes significantly buffered and thereby reduced NFIP payouts on the majority of back-bay residential properties. The extreme conditions of this storm event with storm surges upwards of 2 m, effectively flooded these marshes diminishing their protective capacity. The bulk of the residential properties damaged in our study area were located in lagoonal communities that are built directly adjacent to tidal water and are thereby highly vulnerable to storm surge-related flooding whether or not they are buffered by adjacent marshes. The results of this study should not be misconstrued in concluding that salt marshes do not have a positive value in protecting coastal properties; rather, their protective buffering capacity for extreme storm events is limited and that lagoonal-style developments remain highly vulnerable to sea level rise and future storms.
This is the first-phase report. In this phase of reporting, we examine the pattern of regional ca... more This is the first-phase report. In this phase of reporting, we examine the pattern of regional casino gross gaming revenues (GGR) in Atlantic City (AC) and its regional market alongside its relationship to aggregate regional personal income. To give a sense of competition to New Jersey's (NJ) casinos in the market place, we review the chronology of casino openings and closings both in NJ and nearby in other states. This enables us to ascertain their effects upon regionwide and AC net gaming revenues as well as on casino survival.The main new finding in this report is that there has been relatively little variation over time in the ratio of regional GGR to aggregate regional personal income. Interestingly, this ratio tends to vary between 0.45 and 0.50%, which suggests that the area market for gaming has been saturated. And the main story of the past twelve years, which is rather well known, has been that the successful rise of casinos in eastern Pennsylvania has been at the expe...
December 2017 will mark the tenth anniversary of the last business-cycle peak in the United State... more December 2017 will mark the tenth anniversary of the last business-cycle peak in the United States as well as the tenth anniversary of the start of the Great 2007–2009 Recession (December 2007–June 2009).1 During this ten-year period, the longstanding economic and demographic foundations of New Jersey were fundamentally disrupted and transformed: 2017 New Jersey looks quite different from 2007 New Jersey. The state's recovery from the Great Recession has been less than robust, and there is still a high degree of uncertainty about future economic prosperity.
The Grow New Jersey and Economic Redevelopment and Growth (ERG) Programs were created through the... more The Grow New Jersey and Economic Redevelopment and Growth (ERG) Programs were created through the Economic Opportunity Act of 2013 (EOA), with the intent to incentivize the creation and retention of jobs in New Jersey (Grow NJ) and enable commercial and residential development that would not be completed under traditional financing mechanisms (ERG), particularly in economically distressed areas of the state. This report reviews the administration of these incentives to date by the New Jersey Economic Development Authority (NJEDA) and offers a series of recommendations for reconsidering and revising the parameters under which incentive applications are evaluated.
Job recovery rates are calculated for all 50 states. The rate measures the percentage of a state&... more Job recovery rates are calculated for all 50 states. The rate measures the percentage of a state's private-sector employment losses during and after the recession that have been recovered as of June 2012. As a benchmark for comparing individual states, the national private-sector job recovery rate is 49.3 percent.Public-sector employment (federal, state, and local) increased well into the national recession. It was affected by numerous factors (federal countercyclical spending, deep tax-revenue declines for state and local governments, and varying political responses at the state and local levels in terms of tax increases versus service reductions).
This report presents the findings of the second phase of a study commissioned by the Office of Re... more This report presents the findings of the second phase of a study commissioned by the Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis, New Jersey Department of the Treasury. The report was requested on behalf of the Governor's Atlantic City Working Group for the purpose of understanding the capacity of the Atlantic City casino marketplace. Phase I of the analysis found that Atlantic City's gaming market as a share of aggregate regional personal income has appeared to be largely saturated since as early as 1993. At the same time, Atlantic City's share of regional gaming revenue dropped significantly over the period (from 100% in 1995 to 26% in 2018), as competition from new facilities eroded what was once the city's virtual monopoly on regional casino gambling. Phase II of the study uses two modeling approaches to estimate the net change in Atlantic City's gross gaming revenue that would result from the introduction of a 2,000-slot machine casino in Philadelphia and/or New...
Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits ... more Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits you. Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Executive Summary N ew Jersey's large number of school districts and municipal and county governments, together with its major, constitutionally based involvement in school aid and its extensive intergovernmental aid programs, result in significant tax revenue flows from the counties and regions to state government and a return flow of aid from the state to the counties and regions. This report examines the spatial distribution of two major taxes (the gross income tax and the state sales tax) and three major sta...
Executive Summary T his report estimates the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy ... more Executive Summary T his report estimates the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the economy of New Jersey using the R/ECON™ forecasting model of the state's economy. The model consists of more than 250 quarterly time-series equations and 30 employment sectors. The analysis takes into account both the economic losses resulting from the hurricane and the offsetting positive economic impacts associated with recovery and reconstruction spending in the months and years following the storm. However, the estimates of impacts depend upon the restoration expenditures actually being made. If the funds for these restoration and recovery expenditures are not made available, the offsetting positive impacts to the economy will not occur and the New Jersey economy will be significantly damaged. See Section 3 for estimates of the negative impacts if restoration expenditures are not made. Based on estimated initial economic losses (not including damages to physical structures...
Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright ... more Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Article begins on next page
Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits ... more Rutgers University has made this article freely available. Please share how this access benefits you. Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Competing casinos in Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New York State continue to erode revenues at Atl... more Competing casinos in Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New York State continue to erode revenues at Atlantic City’s casinos. Yet, recent evidence from nascent aspects of New Jersey gaming industry (sports betting and Internet gaming) suggest that the Atlantic City market might not be saturated. To assess whether the market is saturated or not, we first draw on the greater region’s casino gaming revenue history as well as county aggregate personal income and empirically derive the spatial extent of Atlantic City’s market. We then find a measure—regional gross gaming revenues (GGR) as a share of regional aggregate personal income—that suggests the market has been fairly saturated since at least 1990. We then apply two models—Huff’s and a time-series regression—to estimate impact of the addition of new casinos upon those in Atlantic City. Both suggest diminishing returns to scale of additional city slot machines upon the GGR within New Jersey. They also both show that new casinos in competin...
This report estimates both the one-time and the on-going economic and fiscal benefits from transp... more This report estimates both the one-time and the on-going economic and fiscal benefits from transportation investments. The report provides the new Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) with two general software programs to enable both types of benefits to be estimated for specific highway transportation projects. These programs can assist NJDOT in its planning and economic analysis. The report uses past NJDOT highway transportation projects to identify the myriad inputs used in highway projects and the expenditures made on these inputs for 40 project types and locations (e.g., bridge replacement, road widening, intersection improvements, etc. in North and South New Jersey). Using the R/ECON™ Input-Output Model, estimates of the one-time benefits of each project type/location are made and a general-use software program is developed. This Transportation Investment Impact Estimator is applied to NJDOT’s Ten-Year Capital Plan. The analysis indicates that over 95,000 job-years, an ...
Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright ... more Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Article begins on next page
Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright ... more Terms of Use: Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder. Article begins on next page
Abstract The hybrid hurricane and storm event dubbed “SuperStorm Sandy” of October 2012 was the m... more Abstract The hybrid hurricane and storm event dubbed “SuperStorm Sandy” of October 2012 was the most costly natural disaster to hit the US Atlantic coast, and the second most costly to affect the United States. This extreme weather event presented an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of tidal salt marshes and maritime forests in buffering adjacent development from storm-related damage. To address this question of how well did or under what conditions did coastal ecosystems buffer adjacent human development, we undertook to quantify the incremental monetary value that a hectare or linear extent of fronting salt marsh and/or maritime forest had on protecting the built environment of the back-bay communities in the Barnegat Bay region of New Jersey, USA. Statistical modeling was used to estimate the relationship between the spatial extent and characteristics of fronting coastal wetlands with the various damage metrics derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency National Flood Insurance Program payout and Preliminary Property Modeling Task Force damage data at the scale of the individual housing unit. While salt marshes may be effective in diminishing wave energies and buffering adjacent development under normal conditions, in the case of SuperStorm Sandy, we find no evidence that New Jersey's extensive coastal marshes significantly buffered and thereby reduced NFIP payouts on the majority of back-bay residential properties. The extreme conditions of this storm event with storm surges upwards of 2 m, effectively flooded these marshes diminishing their protective capacity. The bulk of the residential properties damaged in our study area were located in lagoonal communities that are built directly adjacent to tidal water and are thereby highly vulnerable to storm surge-related flooding whether or not they are buffered by adjacent marshes. The results of this study should not be misconstrued in concluding that salt marshes do not have a positive value in protecting coastal properties; rather, their protective buffering capacity for extreme storm events is limited and that lagoonal-style developments remain highly vulnerable to sea level rise and future storms.
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