Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species
Predicting the potential distribution of invasive alien pests (i.e. habitat suitability modelling... more Predicting the potential distribution of invasive alien pests (i.e. habitat suitability modelling) and their potential spread from existing populations (i.e. habitat susceptibility modelling) is critical to guide management responses at local, regional and national scales. We use the management of Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) invasion in a 260,791 km2 part of eastern Australia as an example to describe a process-based approach for making such predictions with publicly available soft ware (e.g. Netica and ESRI products). The approach is deductive, with causal relationships captured in a Bayesian network and represented spatially at fine resolution using a geographic information system (GIS). Pest risk responses to changing environments, such as land-use change, climate change or altered flood regimes, and to management interventions can be tested through scenario analysis. Predictive risk mapping of invasive aliens is often knowledge-constrained; therefore, our approach s...
Engaging stakeholders and encouraging community engagement is fundamental for adoption of model r... more Engaging stakeholders and encouraging community engagement is fundamental for adoption of model results. Engagement benefits from starting from model development and continuing through to model completion and roll-out. This is especially the case when managing invasive species, where a coordinated management strategy between stakeholders works best. We use a participatory approach that combines expert knowledge and spatial data in a Bayesian network to develop risk maps of potential threats. Of particular relevance is the inclusion of management scenarios that can be manipulated to determine the effects of different strategies and combinations of coordinated strategies. Scenarios are built on expert opinion, guided from years of experience in research and management of the invasive species under field conditions. We capture their knowledge and understanding of the study system allowing us to independently validate how the model and scenarios replicate reality. Stakeholders are train...
Species distribution models (SDMs) are considered to exemplify Pattern rather than Process based ... more Species distribution models (SDMs) are considered to exemplify Pattern rather than Process based models of a species' response to its environment. Hence when used to map species distribution, the purpose of SDMs can be viewed as interpolation, since species response is measured at a few sites in the study region, and the aim is to interpolate species response at intermediate sites. Increasingly, however, SDMs are also being used to also extrapolate species-environment relationships beyond the limits of the study region as represented by the training data. Regardless of whether SDMs are to be used for interpolation or extrapolation, the debate over how to implement SDMs focusses on evaluating the quality of the SDM, both ecologically and mathematically. This paper proposes a framework that includes useful tools previously employed to address uncertainty in habitat modelling. Together with existing frameworks for addressing uncertainty more generally when modelling, we then outlin...
This article discusses an approach that combines monitoring data and computer model outputs for e... more This article discusses an approach that combines monitoring data and computer model outputs for environmental exposure assessment. It describes the application of Bayesian data fusion methods using spatial Gaussian process models in studies of weekly wet deposition data for 2001 from 120 sites monitored by the US National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) in the eastern United States. The article first provides an overview of environmental computer models, with a focus on the CMAQ (Community Multi-Scale Air Quality) Eta forecast model, before considering some algorithmic and pseudo-statistical approaches in weather prediction. It then reviews current state of the art fusion methods for environmental data analysis and introduces a non-dynamic downscaling approach. The static version of the dynamic spatial model is used to analyse the NADP weekly wet deposition data.
In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduct... more In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment. Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts. The risk model for "Don't Achieve Release" provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would n...
Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology, 2011
... Most of the effort of elicitation occurs before the expert and elicitor sit down ... elicitat... more ... Most of the effort of elicitation occurs before the expert and elicitor sit down ... elicitation practice that has ideally been developed and peer-reviewed by elicitation designers and ... The design and specification of the structured elicitation method that underlies Elicitator comprise six ...
Two broad aims drive weed science research: improved management and improved understanding of wee... more Two broad aims drive weed science research: improved management and improved understanding of weed biology and ecology. In recent years, agricultural weed research addressing these two aims has effectively split into separate subdisciplines despite repeated calls for greater integration. Although some excellent work is being done, agricultural weed research has developed a very high level of repetitiveness, a preponderance of purely descriptive studies, and has failed to clearly articulate novel hypotheses linked to established bodies of ecological and evolutionary theory. In contrast, invasive plant research attracts a diverse cadre of nonweed scientists using invasions to explore broader and more integrated biological questions grounded in theory. We propose that although studies focused on weed management remain vitally important, agricultural weed research would benefit from deeper theoretical justification, a broader vision, and increased collaboration across diverse discipline...
In November 2008, a two-day symposium of 25 invited papers on the theme of search and detection: ... more In November 2008, a two-day symposium of 25 invited papers on the theme of search and detection: theory and application in disease and wildlife management was held in Wellington. Papers were presented to an audience of about 60 people by authors from ...
Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species
Predicting the potential distribution of invasive alien pests (i.e. habitat suitability modelling... more Predicting the potential distribution of invasive alien pests (i.e. habitat suitability modelling) and their potential spread from existing populations (i.e. habitat susceptibility modelling) is critical to guide management responses at local, regional and national scales. We use the management of Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) invasion in a 260,791 km2 part of eastern Australia as an example to describe a process-based approach for making such predictions with publicly available soft ware (e.g. Netica and ESRI products). The approach is deductive, with causal relationships captured in a Bayesian network and represented spatially at fine resolution using a geographic information system (GIS). Pest risk responses to changing environments, such as land-use change, climate change or altered flood regimes, and to management interventions can be tested through scenario analysis. Predictive risk mapping of invasive aliens is often knowledge-constrained; therefore, our approach s...
Engaging stakeholders and encouraging community engagement is fundamental for adoption of model r... more Engaging stakeholders and encouraging community engagement is fundamental for adoption of model results. Engagement benefits from starting from model development and continuing through to model completion and roll-out. This is especially the case when managing invasive species, where a coordinated management strategy between stakeholders works best. We use a participatory approach that combines expert knowledge and spatial data in a Bayesian network to develop risk maps of potential threats. Of particular relevance is the inclusion of management scenarios that can be manipulated to determine the effects of different strategies and combinations of coordinated strategies. Scenarios are built on expert opinion, guided from years of experience in research and management of the invasive species under field conditions. We capture their knowledge and understanding of the study system allowing us to independently validate how the model and scenarios replicate reality. Stakeholders are train...
Species distribution models (SDMs) are considered to exemplify Pattern rather than Process based ... more Species distribution models (SDMs) are considered to exemplify Pattern rather than Process based models of a species' response to its environment. Hence when used to map species distribution, the purpose of SDMs can be viewed as interpolation, since species response is measured at a few sites in the study region, and the aim is to interpolate species response at intermediate sites. Increasingly, however, SDMs are also being used to also extrapolate species-environment relationships beyond the limits of the study region as represented by the training data. Regardless of whether SDMs are to be used for interpolation or extrapolation, the debate over how to implement SDMs focusses on evaluating the quality of the SDM, both ecologically and mathematically. This paper proposes a framework that includes useful tools previously employed to address uncertainty in habitat modelling. Together with existing frameworks for addressing uncertainty more generally when modelling, we then outlin...
This article discusses an approach that combines monitoring data and computer model outputs for e... more This article discusses an approach that combines monitoring data and computer model outputs for environmental exposure assessment. It describes the application of Bayesian data fusion methods using spatial Gaussian process models in studies of weekly wet deposition data for 2001 from 120 sites monitored by the US National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) in the eastern United States. The article first provides an overview of environmental computer models, with a focus on the CMAQ (Community Multi-Scale Air Quality) Eta forecast model, before considering some algorithmic and pseudo-statistical approaches in weather prediction. It then reviews current state of the art fusion methods for environmental data analysis and introduces a non-dynamic downscaling approach. The static version of the dynamic spatial model is used to analyse the NADP weekly wet deposition data.
In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduct... more In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment. Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts. The risk model for "Don't Achieve Release" provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would n...
Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology, 2011
... Most of the effort of elicitation occurs before the expert and elicitor sit down ... elicitat... more ... Most of the effort of elicitation occurs before the expert and elicitor sit down ... elicitation practice that has ideally been developed and peer-reviewed by elicitation designers and ... The design and specification of the structured elicitation method that underlies Elicitator comprise six ...
Two broad aims drive weed science research: improved management and improved understanding of wee... more Two broad aims drive weed science research: improved management and improved understanding of weed biology and ecology. In recent years, agricultural weed research addressing these two aims has effectively split into separate subdisciplines despite repeated calls for greater integration. Although some excellent work is being done, agricultural weed research has developed a very high level of repetitiveness, a preponderance of purely descriptive studies, and has failed to clearly articulate novel hypotheses linked to established bodies of ecological and evolutionary theory. In contrast, invasive plant research attracts a diverse cadre of nonweed scientists using invasions to explore broader and more integrated biological questions grounded in theory. We propose that although studies focused on weed management remain vitally important, agricultural weed research would benefit from deeper theoretical justification, a broader vision, and increased collaboration across diverse discipline...
In November 2008, a two-day symposium of 25 invited papers on the theme of search and detection: ... more In November 2008, a two-day symposium of 25 invited papers on the theme of search and detection: theory and application in disease and wildlife management was held in Wellington. Papers were presented to an audience of about 60 people by authors from ...
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