Papers by Marcello Basili
Research in Transportation Economics, Aug 1, 2020
Abstract We empirically measure the short-run marginal deterrent effect of the Italian “Vehicular... more Abstract We empirically measure the short-run marginal deterrent effect of the Italian “Vehicular Homicide Law” (VHL), introduced in Italy in 2016. We exploit micro-data on the entire universe of road accidents in Italy in the period before and after the VHL. We find no systematic variation of the number of deaths per accident, after controlling for an array of driver and vehicle characteristics, road and weather conditions, province-level effects and time effects absorbing country-level variation in traffic volumes and enforcement devices. We argue that the short-run marginal deterrent effect of the Italian VHL was negligible. We also document a number of correlations between several driver, vehicle and road characteristics and both the occurrence and the severity of fatal accidents. Our results may help improving policy initiatives aimed at curbing dangerous driving on Italian roads.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
L'articolo descriveun problema di scelta intertemporale in condizioni di incertezza forte, ir... more L'articolo descriveun problema di scelta intertemporale in condizioni di incertezza forte, irreversibilità ed apprendimento. Il modello a tre periodi presentato dimostra che l'agente razionale esprime una preferenza per la flessibilità intertemporale, di cui il valore di opzione intertemporale può essere considerato il fondamento razionale. Nel modello il valore di opzione intertemporale è una grandezza positiva (strettamente positiva) quando l'agente è avverso (strettamente avverso) all'incertezza forte. Il modello dimostra che l'agente è sensibile anche a una soluzione parziale dell'incertezza e che un aumento dell'avversione all'incertezza forte accresce il valore di opzione intertemporale e induce alla conservazione dell'opzione
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Cambridge Journal of Economics, Jun 25, 2021
This paper presents an intuitive way to represent Keynes’s theory of expectations and its implica... more This paper presents an intuitive way to represent Keynes’s theory of expectations and its implications for financial markets. Further to a suggestion by Ellsberg, a coherent expectational function for the valuation of assets under Keynesian uncertainty is derived. By following the thread that goes from the non-numerical probabilities of the Treatise on Probability to the expectations of the General Theory, this paper suggests that a function accounting for Keynesian expectations can be modelled by using a class of the so-called ε-contaminated probability priors, where the parameter ε is suggestive of the quality of information about the relevant odds.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
On the occasion of his 80th birthday an interview with Frank Hahn was conducted. The interview mo... more On the occasion of his 80th birthday an interview with Frank Hahn was conducted. The interview mostly deals with Hahn's view of economics. Hahn accepted to discuss both the theoretical aspects concerning his contribution to the development of general equilibrium theory and the methodological issues concerning his viewpoint that theoretical models can prove useful in the study of actual economic phenomena
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Economic Psychology, Jun 1, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Metroeconomica, May 1, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
This article analyzes the Precautionary Principle (PP) from an institutional point of view. It sh... more This article analyzes the Precautionary Principle (PP) from an institutional point of view. It shows that the implementation of the PP involves deep agency problems mainly because the benefits of precaution are very evenly distribuited under ambiguity
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Nov 27, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Springer eBooks, Nov 2, 2013
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Social Science Research Network, 2003
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Entropy, Oct 30, 2015
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Environment and Development Economics, Oct 1, 1998
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Cleaner Production, Aug 1, 2018
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Cambridge Journal of Economics, Mar 12, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Economic Notes, Feb 1, 2001
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Expert Review of Anti-infective Therapy, Dec 1, 2010
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Structural Safety, 2015
ABSTRACT We consider an aggregation scheme of opinions expressed through different probability di... more ABSTRACT We consider an aggregation scheme of opinions expressed through different probability distributions or multiple priors decision model. The decision-maker adopts entropy maximization as a measure of risk diversification and a rational form of prudence for valuing uncertain outcomes. We show a new aggregation rule based on the composite value function that is able to represent asymmetric attitude on extreme events (optimism with respect to windfall gains and pessimism with respect to catastrophic events) and a rational prudence on ordinary events. We define when the new rule preserves stochastic dominance.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Springer eBooks, 1998
The concept of option value, originated in finance, has long since found interesting applications... more The concept of option value, originated in finance, has long since found interesting applications in environmental economics. Environmental goods may be considered as (at least in part) irreplaceable assets, the preservation of which has an option value as it leaves open options of consumption (as in the case of a park) and production (as in the case of medicinal plants). The option value of environmental goods is a function of their perceived degree of substitutibility by alternative goods, which in turn may change in time with change of tastes, knowledge concerning their current and potential uses, and availability of new goods.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Social Science Research Network, 2000
ABSTRACT In recent years most Austrian developments have argued for a definitive shift away from ... more ABSTRACT In recent years most Austrian developments have argued for a definitive shift away from the search for equilibrium constructs and in favor of the analysis of those institutions which favor ordered outcomes of the market process. These developments imply an inevitable withdrawal from methodological individualism and are based on the contention that a probabilistic approach to subjective decision making is flawed. Our aim in this paper is to point out that a withdrawal from equilibrium theorizing is not justified by the inability of pure economic theory to deal with radical ignorance. We argue that the kind of formal representation of decision making under uncertainty one finds in recent developments in microeconomic theory, namely the non-additive approach to subjectively probable assessments, recognizes as a starting point for research the view that ignorance is an inherent feature of every decision regarding future events. In this, it resembles the Shackleian assertion that the future is the unpredictable consequence of creative choices made by individual agents. A critical, but positive, attitude towards recent attempts to formalize radical ignorance suggests that the Austrian tradition may actually influence future research rather than merely constitute an optional supplement to it.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Uploads
Papers by Marcello Basili