Earthquake loss estimation — although around since the early 1970’s — has not been considered a d... more Earthquake loss estimation — although around since the early 1970’s — has not been considered a decision-making tool until recently. Because early models were based on expert opinion with limited hand calculations, they lacked the ability to perform sensitivity studies (which could provide important insight into drivers of loss potential) or the ability to produce results in a timely fashion.
This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil ... more This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil pipeline leaks caused by earthquakes. Risk is measured both as volume of oil released and remediation cost. The methodology was developed for use on a regional scale and thus relies on a limited amount of input data. Monte Carlo techniques are used to simulate earthquake events, while a deterministic model is used to estimate the volume of oil released at a particular site. A library of cost models is used to estimate the contamination and resulting remediation cost based on the volume of oil released and the general site conditions. This methodology has been implemented in a computer program, OILOSS, and the results are presented as frequency of exceedance curves for volume of oil released and cost of remediation. The methodology is applied to two crude oil pipelines near the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) and preliminary results are presented. This study is being sponsored by a grant from the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER).
This report presents a methodology which a utility can use to fold mitigation for seismic hazards... more This report presents a methodology which a utility can use to fold mitigation for seismic hazards into its ongoing repair and replacement program. The methodology was developed specifically for buried pipeline components within the Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) system. Both transmissions and distribution pipeline systems are considered; however, suggested procedures differ, due in part to the importance and relative lack of redundancy (i.e., interconnectedness) for transmission pipe. In the past, the SoCalGas repair and replacement program focused on corrosion damage. The new methodology incorporates potential seismic damage as characterized by areas of potential ground failure. As part of this effort, a new procedure for estimating corrosion leakage rates in "data-poor" areas is proposed.
Casualty estimation methodologies generally provide estimates of injuries in categories that are... more Casualty estimation methodologies generally provide estimates of injuries in categories that are not ideal for healthcare preparedness efforts. In order for healthcare planners to make use of casualty estimates, the results must be developed in a format that provides them with information on the types of resources that might be required for treatment. This paper describes the various casualty models
A multi-disciplinary project team is investigating the application of standard earthquake enginee... more A multi-disciplinary project team is investigating the application of standard earthquake engineering loss estimation techniques (e.g., HAZUS) to a variety of seismic hazard models developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) in an effort to translate the seismic hazard data into outputs easily recognized and utilized by the earthquake engineering and emergency management community. The economic impact analysis results
We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), upd... more We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated Census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous United States has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012 dollars), roughly 80%of which can be attributed to the states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10% to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic states of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for the Central and Eastern United States.
Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recent... more Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by V S 30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 V S 30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7 billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates among the three sensitivity cases for smaller geographic units.
Through a two-year project, Dames & Moore has examined the topic of building or landuse loss-redu... more Through a two-year project, Dames & Moore has examined the topic of building or landuse loss-reduction measures in a federal earthquake insurance or reinsurance program. Loss reduction measures examined covered both landuse and building practices. General Dames & Moore proposals have been modified for inclusions in all legislative packages to be put before Congress in 1991. To date, however, the topic of lifeline system loss reduction in a federal earthquake insurance or reinsurance program has not been examined. Issues to be considered cover (a) the relevance of lifeline serviceability criteria among governmental insurance program considerations (b) financial incentives for mitigation and (c) coordination of the more complex federal regulatory framework. This paper elaborates these issues.
Supplemental material, EQS878187_Supplemental_material for A domestic earthquake impact alert pro... more Supplemental material, EQS878187_Supplemental_material for A domestic earthquake impact alert protocol based on the combined USGS PAGER and FEMA Hazus loss estimation systems by David J Wald, Hope A Seligson, Jesse Rozelle, Jordan Burns, Kristin Marano, Kishor S Jaiswal, Michael Hearne and Douglas Bausch in Earthquake Spectra
Earthquake loss estimation — although around since the early 1970’s — has not been considered a d... more Earthquake loss estimation — although around since the early 1970’s — has not been considered a decision-making tool until recently. Because early models were based on expert opinion with limited hand calculations, they lacked the ability to perform sensitivity studies (which could provide important insight into drivers of loss potential) or the ability to produce results in a timely fashion.
This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil ... more This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil pipeline leaks caused by earthquakes. Risk is measured both as volume of oil released and remediation cost. The methodology was developed for use on a regional scale and thus relies on a limited amount of input data. Monte Carlo techniques are used to simulate earthquake events, while a deterministic model is used to estimate the volume of oil released at a particular site. A library of cost models is used to estimate the contamination and resulting remediation cost based on the volume of oil released and the general site conditions. This methodology has been implemented in a computer program, OILOSS, and the results are presented as frequency of exceedance curves for volume of oil released and cost of remediation. The methodology is applied to two crude oil pipelines near the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) and preliminary results are presented. This study is being sponsored by a grant from the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER).
This report presents a methodology which a utility can use to fold mitigation for seismic hazards... more This report presents a methodology which a utility can use to fold mitigation for seismic hazards into its ongoing repair and replacement program. The methodology was developed specifically for buried pipeline components within the Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) system. Both transmissions and distribution pipeline systems are considered; however, suggested procedures differ, due in part to the importance and relative lack of redundancy (i.e., interconnectedness) for transmission pipe. In the past, the SoCalGas repair and replacement program focused on corrosion damage. The new methodology incorporates potential seismic damage as characterized by areas of potential ground failure. As part of this effort, a new procedure for estimating corrosion leakage rates in "data-poor" areas is proposed.
Casualty estimation methodologies generally provide estimates of injuries in categories that are... more Casualty estimation methodologies generally provide estimates of injuries in categories that are not ideal for healthcare preparedness efforts. In order for healthcare planners to make use of casualty estimates, the results must be developed in a format that provides them with information on the types of resources that might be required for treatment. This paper describes the various casualty models
A multi-disciplinary project team is investigating the application of standard earthquake enginee... more A multi-disciplinary project team is investigating the application of standard earthquake engineering loss estimation techniques (e.g., HAZUS) to a variety of seismic hazard models developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) in an effort to translate the seismic hazard data into outputs easily recognized and utilized by the earthquake engineering and emergency management community. The economic impact analysis results
We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), upd... more We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated Census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous United States has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012 dollars), roughly 80%of which can be attributed to the states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10% to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic states of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for the Central and Eastern United States.
Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recent... more Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by V S 30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 V S 30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7 billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates among the three sensitivity cases for smaller geographic units.
Through a two-year project, Dames & Moore has examined the topic of building or landuse loss-redu... more Through a two-year project, Dames & Moore has examined the topic of building or landuse loss-reduction measures in a federal earthquake insurance or reinsurance program. Loss reduction measures examined covered both landuse and building practices. General Dames & Moore proposals have been modified for inclusions in all legislative packages to be put before Congress in 1991. To date, however, the topic of lifeline system loss reduction in a federal earthquake insurance or reinsurance program has not been examined. Issues to be considered cover (a) the relevance of lifeline serviceability criteria among governmental insurance program considerations (b) financial incentives for mitigation and (c) coordination of the more complex federal regulatory framework. This paper elaborates these issues.
Supplemental material, EQS878187_Supplemental_material for A domestic earthquake impact alert pro... more Supplemental material, EQS878187_Supplemental_material for A domestic earthquake impact alert protocol based on the combined USGS PAGER and FEMA Hazus loss estimation systems by David J Wald, Hope A Seligson, Jesse Rozelle, Jordan Burns, Kristin Marano, Kishor S Jaiswal, Michael Hearne and Douglas Bausch in Earthquake Spectra
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