Food security is commonly measured by means of surveys, requiring substantial time and budget. Op... more Food security is commonly measured by means of surveys, requiring substantial time and budget. Open data can possibly serve as a cost-effective alternative to predict food security. In this paper a method is proposed that uses open data related to food insecurity drivers to predict food security in Ethiopia at the subnational level. The method is based on an ordinal classification approach with a random forest as underlying algorithm. The model turned out to have an accuracy of approximately 90%. Although using an ordinal approach increases performance, a negative side-effect is that the model struggled to predict records with the label ‘stressed’ as a target. The basis of this effect lays in how probabilities for classes ranked in the middle are calculated. Further research on adding open data sources on other drivers and on finetuning hyperparameters in the modelling is advised before implementing machine learning to predict food security.
Citation for published version (APA): Berndsen, R. J., & Daniels, H. A. M. (1994). Causal reasoni... more Citation for published version (APA): Berndsen, R. J., & Daniels, H. A. M. (1994). Causal reasoning and explanation in dynamic economic systems. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(1), 251-271. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.? Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research? You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain? You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright, please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. ...
Food security is commonly measured by means of surveys, requiring substantial time and budget. Op... more Food security is commonly measured by means of surveys, requiring substantial time and budget. Open data can possibly serve as a cost-effective alternative to predict food security. In this paper a method is proposed that uses open data related to food insecurity drivers to predict food security in Ethiopia at the subnational level. The method is based on an ordinal classification approach with a random forest as underlying algorithm. The model turned out to have an accuracy of approximately 90%. Although using an ordinal approach increases performance, a negative side-effect is that the model struggled to predict records with the label ‘stressed’ as a target. The basis of this effect lays in how probabilities for classes ranked in the middle are calculated. Further research on adding open data sources on other drivers and on finetuning hyperparameters in the modelling is advised before implementing machine learning to predict food security.
Citation for published version (APA): Berndsen, R. J., & Daniels, H. A. M. (1994). Causal reasoni... more Citation for published version (APA): Berndsen, R. J., & Daniels, H. A. M. (1994). Causal reasoning and explanation in dynamic economic systems. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(1), 251-271. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.? Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research? You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain? You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright, please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. ...
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