This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian p... more This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian policy or the Monetarist's policy was more efficacious on employment generation in Nigerian with quarterly data for sample period of 1992 to 2016. The empirical finding is that cumulative effects of Keynesian of increasing aggregate government spending on the growth rate of employment in Nigeria is dominant in contrast to Monetarist's policy. The policy simulation results reported negative dynamic multiplier of -0.01 of monetary policy on employment; fiscal policy gave a dynamic employment multiplier of 0.12 respectively. The study thus bears out fiscal policy as more effectual in inducing employment in Nigeria by imposing positive feedbacks. The study remarks on feasible implementation of empirical finding.
The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies corre... more The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies correspondingly on economic growth in Nigeria. We specified dynamic simultaneous equation to describe mutual quest for macroeconomic stabilization within coordinated policy framework between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Employing annual data, from 1980 to 2017 with application of GMM technique, implication of results is that fiscal policy and monetary policy variables mutually explain output growth significantly with view to stabilizing Nigerian economy. Indeed, with policy coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, output growth is significantly remarkable. This advances validation of optimal policy mix for macroeconomic stabilization. Fiscal policy is countercyclical in its effects which conform to Keynesian stabilization assertion while monetary policy was is pro-cyclical. This result could be implying fiscal dominance in determination of price level. In effect, it c...
The paper explores empirically the relative effect of capital outflows on the growth rate of GDP ... more The paper explores empirically the relative effect of capital outflows on the growth rate of GDP in Nigeria. To accomplish this task, three models of GDP growth rate were specified with each model incorporating a different measure of capital flight from Nigeria. The variables in the models were examined for possible co-integration. Research findings shows that capital flight impacts adversely on the growth rate of GDP and such growth rate effect of capital outflow is significant, capital control is insignificant in stimulating GDP growth rate in Nigeria, exchange controls are weak, industrial output is a veritable resource of GDP growth rate in Nigeria, public expenditure has significant positive impact on GDP growth rate in Nigeria and that the growth effects of domestic investment is insignificant in Nigeria. There is therefore the need for effective control of capital outflows. Also, there is an acute need to implement economic policies that can re-invigorate domestic investment ...
The study attempts to rationalize the impact of international trade flows on employment generatio... more The study attempts to rationalize the impact of international trade flows on employment generation in Nigeria within the framework of the vector error correction model. The study found that the volume of international trade has no significant positive impact on employment generation in Nigeria. Indeed, the recent empirical evidence is that of a significant negative employment effect of total trade volume in Nigeria. This could be as a result of the SAP-induced trade liberalization forced on the country by the IMF and World Bank as a pre-condition for loan procurement and possible debt cancellation. Besides, the employment effect of trade liberalization is insignificant and negative as well in this study. It is therefore imperative for Nigeria to make her export competitive by broadening the horizons of production and reduce her volume of importation in order to make the negative trade balance positive.
We employed the autoregressive distributed lag [ARDL] model. This was estimated based on the Boun... more We employed the autoregressive distributed lag [ARDL] model. This was estimated based on the Bound co-integration technique. We indeed attempted to shed light to relationship between human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, while it cannot be concluded that human capital development has significant contribution to economic growth in Nigeria because both variables of education and health were not found to be jointly significant, it can be concluded that education has contributed significantly and positively to economic growth in Nigeria in the long run. The finding thus holds that education is a catalyst for influencing economic growth in Nigeria. This finding is in line with theory. Therefore, policymakers should take imperative steps in embarking on strategic education in Nigeria with emphasis on secondary schools.
The paper examines the link between capital structure and firm financial performance in Nigeria o... more The paper examines the link between capital structure and firm financial performance in Nigeria on basis of panel research design with secondary data spanning 2010-2014 financial year for seventy (75) sampled companies quoted in the Nigerian Stock Exchange was analysed. The data estimation technique was the 2SLS which is suitable in study perceived not be devoid of endogeneity. The result revealed that leverage as proxy by ratio of noncurrent liability to equity (NCLEQ) seems not to exhibit causality with financial performance (RETOA) vice-versa. However, there seems to be the presence of bidirectional causality between current liability expressed as a ratio to equity (CULEQ) and RETOA. Also, there is simultaneous causal link between Equity express as a ratio to overall assets (EQTTA) and RETOA. The study therefore concludes that capital structure (CULEQ and EQTTA) determines financial performance (RETOA) while simultaneously, financial performance determines capital structure in Ni...
This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian p... more This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian policy or the Monetarist’s policy was more efficacious on employment generation in Nigerian with quarterly data for sample period of 1992 to 2016. The empirical finding is that cumulative effects of Keynesian of increasing aggregate government spending on the growth rate of employment in Nigeria is dominant in contrast to Monetarist’s policy. The policy simulation results reported negative dynamic multiplier of -0.01 of monetary policy on employment; fiscal policy gave a dynamic employment multiplier of 0.12 respectively. The study thus bears out fiscal policy as more effectual in inducing employment in Nigeria by imposing positive feedbacks. The study remarks on feasible implementation of empirical finding.
This study analyzed the impact of micro finance banks’ credit on macroeconomic variables in Niger... more This study analyzed the impact of micro finance banks’ credit on macroeconomic variables in Nigeria using a quadratic regression model. The analysis indicates that through deposit mobilization and credit delivery, micro finance banks have significantly enhanced the development of the Nigerian economy through productivity growth, employment generation, poverty reduction and investment expansion. However, the poverty reduction effect of microfinance credit is yet to be all round significant in Nigeria. To sustain the significant impact, micro finance banks need to be strengthened in terms of a stronger capital base, enabling monetary and financial policies and operational guidelines and correspondent relationship with commercial banks.
American academic & scholarly research journal, 2013
This paper performed an empirical test of the relationship between private and public health expe... more This paper performed an empirical test of the relationship between private and public health expenditures in Nigeria. Our results reveal complementarity of inputs between public and private health expenditures in Nigeria. The result is thus an indication that government health investment plans crowd in private health investment spending. The crowding in effect could be induced by government tax incentives and government regulation (policy intervention). By economic intiution, the efficiency of private health spendings is also a function of the weight of government health expenditure in the country. Implicationally therefore, the more balanced the composition of government health spending, the greater the increase in the level of effective private health care services in Nigeria. We therefore recommend that unless appropriate regulatory measures are implemented by the government, it may lead to inefficiencies that have an unplanned effect on the rest of the economy (private sector in...
Econometrically, we analyzed role of selected African stock exchanges in welcoming FDI inflows by... more Econometrically, we analyzed role of selected African stock exchanges in welcoming FDI inflows by estimating time-varying factor augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model for 2006:Q1 to 2017:Q4. Our results support FDI being massively influenced by movements in two stock market predictors namely, stock market's size, that is, total market value of stock market's listed shares calculated by multiplying a stock market’s shares listed by current market price of one share and stock market liquidity which is total value of traded shares relative to the size of the economy. By empirical inference, African stock exchanges exhibit inordinate turnover ratio and so these markets are exceedingly liquid. Particularly, transactions at stock exchange are significant indicators for foreign investors and total market value of listed shares in stock markets is linked positively with FDI inflow into Africa. The empirical finding is that viable African stock exchanges are attractive indic...
We examined the dynamics of inflation and unemployment in Nigeria using the vector error correcti... more We examined the dynamics of inflation and unemployment in Nigeria using the vector error correction methodology over a period of twenty seven years. The study finds evidence of stagflation in the Nigerian economy over the period of study. In fact, the Nigerian economy is managing a shocking rate of inflation together with a severe recession as the unemployment rate has risen astronomically. Consequently, the Nigerian economy is at a cross road. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the CBN maintains a stance of gradual reduction of the benchmark inflation rate to a single digit as the excessive contraction of the monetary policy rate seems to have become counterproductive in recent times. Single digit inflation rate can be achieved if the CBN could increase GDP growth above money supply and increase lending to the real sector of the economy. Keywords: Inflation targeting, unemployment, monetary policy, stagflation, Nigeria, Phillips curve, NAIRU
This paper seeks to investigate the empiricism behind the New National Tax Policy in Nigeria by e... more This paper seeks to investigate the empiricism behind the New National Tax Policy in Nigeria by employing co-integration and error correction as methods of empirical estimation with an empirical strategy of disaggregation. In line with the objective of the paper, empirical results indicate that while the policy of direct taxation is significantly and positively correlated with economic growth, indirect taxation proved insignificant with its negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Â The paper indeed ascertained that the tax-based revenue profile in Nigeria is skewed towards direct taxes. By implication, the global transition from direct taxation to indirect taxation lack empirical justification in developing countries such as Nigeria. Thus, we recommend that rather than expand the indirect tax structures, the government should expand the structures of direct taxes in Nigeria. Â A major contribution of the paper to knowledge is the fact that on the basis of the hypotheses tested,...
The study empirically examines a co-integrated model of financial stability of Nigerian financial... more The study empirically examines a co-integrated model of financial stability of Nigerian financial sector in relation to credit financing over the sample period 1990 to 2016. The methodology of error correction was adopted in the study. The study found that credit financing and financial stability are positively linked. Nevertheless, with ecm coefficient of 1.798, the Nigeria’s financial system is unstable; any short run disturbance to the nation’s financial sector will not be restored in the nearest future. Moreover, the coefficient of financial depth is negative implying instability in money supply. As a result, level of the Nigeria’s financial deepening does not enhance the stability of the country’s financial sector. In effect, narrow financial depth causes instability of financial system in Nigeria. So, need arises for resistant and robust institutional advancement of the financial sector, while resilient emphasis on fund enlistment is needed. Also, government should ensure the ...
This paper estimates import demand functions for Nigeria using yearly data for 2000 to 2017 on ba... more This paper estimates import demand functions for Nigeria using yearly data for 2000 to 2017 on basis of dynamics of distributed lag model in line with first-order Koyck lag transformation. GLS estimator was utilized in two ways: Estimation without any restriction imposed on lag coefficients and estimation by restricting Koyck lag weights to satisfy erstwhile assumption of smoothness. Our chosen restriction was such that lag coefficients exponentially decline from initial impact to zero at a lag length of s . For estimation without restrictions, probability values of Wald statistic were insignificant. As regards estimation with restrictions, our restrictions on lag coefficients were significant and as such our analysis of results was focussed on estimations with coefficient restrictions. The empirics upholds structural import equation as most well-behaved import function for predicting variation in Nigeria’s demand for importation with a mean lag of 1.088 years, median lag of 1.063 y...
Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 2013
This study evaluated the impact of macroeconomic policy on aggregate investment in Nigeria over t... more This study evaluated the impact of macroeconomic policy on aggregate investment in Nigeria over the sample period of forty three years. The Granger Two-Step method of co-integration and error correction estimation were adopted in the study. The study ascertained a significant positive impact of monetary policy on investment growth in Nigeria; the investment effect of trade policy is positive but insignificant while that of fiscal policy is absolutely negative and significant. Also, the results suggest that investment in Nigeria is dynamically unstable. Indeed, there is a long-run disequilibrium relationship between the growth of investment and macroeconomic policy in Nigeria. Hence, any short term disturbance in the equilibrating process of investors in relation to changes in the domestic interest rate, total government expenditures, trade openness and the amount of money in circulation will not be restored until probably when the government augments monetary policy with other econo...
The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies corre... more The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies correspondingly on economic growth in Nigeria. We specified dynamic simultaneous equation to describe mutual quest for macroeconomic stabilization within coordinated policy framework between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Employing annual data, from 1980 to 2017 with application of GMM technique, implication of results is that fiscal policy and monetary policy variables mutually explain output growth significantly with view to stabilizing Nigerian economy. Indeed, with policy coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, output growth is significantly remarkable. This advances validation of optimal policy mix for macroeconomic stabilization. Fiscal policy is countercyclical in its effects which conform to Keynesian stabilization assertion while monetary policy was is pro-cyclical. This result could be implying fiscal dominance in determination of price level. In effect, it c...
This study is an econometric exploration of the impact of differential trade preferences on the E... more This study is an econometric exploration of the impact of differential trade preferences on the Economic Society of West African Countries with focus on the Cotonou Agreement period of 2001 to 2013. The aim was to empirically evaluate using panel least squares regression method the degree to which the preferential trade agreement between EU and ECOWAS has affected intra-ECOWAS integration. Given a significant interactive effect, we accept the supposition that EU exceptional trade agreements with ECOWAS countries have not significantly enhanced intra-ECOWAS trade. Accordingly, the study found that the adverse effect of ECOWAS openness to the EU on ECOWAS intra-trade is instituted on intermittent differentials of favored treatments to different ECOWAS member countries. There is need for the consistency of the special treatment of ECOWAS by the EU.
The paper analyzes the policy implications of the big-push model for development in Nigeria. The ... more The paper analyzes the policy implications of the big-push model for development in Nigeria. The highlights of the analysis include existence of three interrelated perceptions namely, poverty trap, big push (BP) and takeoff. The basic idea is that poor countries are in poverty, hence needs BP linking amplified investment, leading to takeoff in national income and development. This indeed rationalizes necessity for overseas aid. In effect, minimum infrastructure and educational resources be apportioned to development programme to achieve success. However, nations that have implemented coordinated investment programs can achieve industrialization of each sector and thus be able push forward sequence of development.
This paper attempts to analyze the labour productivity effects of health capital in Nigeria. The ... more This paper attempts to analyze the labour productivity effects of health capital in Nigeria. The GMM methodology was adopted in the estimation having tested for unit root and possible co-integration. We find that health capital investment is a significant determinant of labour productivity. Evident from the hypotheses the null hypothesis of an insignificant impact of health capital investment on labour productivity in Nigeria is vehemently invalidated on the basis of a significant Wald coefficient. The analysis indicates that health capital investment enhances productivity of the labour force. Given that Nigeria is a highly labour-intensive economy, importance must be accorded to having a healthier workforce in order to maximize productivity. Another essential finding in the study lies in the statistical significance of the education-labour and health capital-labour interaction terms. The Nigerian government has to build capacity through investment in education in order to enhance p...
This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian p... more This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian policy or the Monetarist's policy was more efficacious on employment generation in Nigerian with quarterly data for sample period of 1992 to 2016. The empirical finding is that cumulative effects of Keynesian of increasing aggregate government spending on the growth rate of employment in Nigeria is dominant in contrast to Monetarist's policy. The policy simulation results reported negative dynamic multiplier of -0.01 of monetary policy on employment; fiscal policy gave a dynamic employment multiplier of 0.12 respectively. The study thus bears out fiscal policy as more effectual in inducing employment in Nigeria by imposing positive feedbacks. The study remarks on feasible implementation of empirical finding.
The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies corre... more The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies correspondingly on economic growth in Nigeria. We specified dynamic simultaneous equation to describe mutual quest for macroeconomic stabilization within coordinated policy framework between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Employing annual data, from 1980 to 2017 with application of GMM technique, implication of results is that fiscal policy and monetary policy variables mutually explain output growth significantly with view to stabilizing Nigerian economy. Indeed, with policy coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, output growth is significantly remarkable. This advances validation of optimal policy mix for macroeconomic stabilization. Fiscal policy is countercyclical in its effects which conform to Keynesian stabilization assertion while monetary policy was is pro-cyclical. This result could be implying fiscal dominance in determination of price level. In effect, it c...
The paper explores empirically the relative effect of capital outflows on the growth rate of GDP ... more The paper explores empirically the relative effect of capital outflows on the growth rate of GDP in Nigeria. To accomplish this task, three models of GDP growth rate were specified with each model incorporating a different measure of capital flight from Nigeria. The variables in the models were examined for possible co-integration. Research findings shows that capital flight impacts adversely on the growth rate of GDP and such growth rate effect of capital outflow is significant, capital control is insignificant in stimulating GDP growth rate in Nigeria, exchange controls are weak, industrial output is a veritable resource of GDP growth rate in Nigeria, public expenditure has significant positive impact on GDP growth rate in Nigeria and that the growth effects of domestic investment is insignificant in Nigeria. There is therefore the need for effective control of capital outflows. Also, there is an acute need to implement economic policies that can re-invigorate domestic investment ...
The study attempts to rationalize the impact of international trade flows on employment generatio... more The study attempts to rationalize the impact of international trade flows on employment generation in Nigeria within the framework of the vector error correction model. The study found that the volume of international trade has no significant positive impact on employment generation in Nigeria. Indeed, the recent empirical evidence is that of a significant negative employment effect of total trade volume in Nigeria. This could be as a result of the SAP-induced trade liberalization forced on the country by the IMF and World Bank as a pre-condition for loan procurement and possible debt cancellation. Besides, the employment effect of trade liberalization is insignificant and negative as well in this study. It is therefore imperative for Nigeria to make her export competitive by broadening the horizons of production and reduce her volume of importation in order to make the negative trade balance positive.
We employed the autoregressive distributed lag [ARDL] model. This was estimated based on the Boun... more We employed the autoregressive distributed lag [ARDL] model. This was estimated based on the Bound co-integration technique. We indeed attempted to shed light to relationship between human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, while it cannot be concluded that human capital development has significant contribution to economic growth in Nigeria because both variables of education and health were not found to be jointly significant, it can be concluded that education has contributed significantly and positively to economic growth in Nigeria in the long run. The finding thus holds that education is a catalyst for influencing economic growth in Nigeria. This finding is in line with theory. Therefore, policymakers should take imperative steps in embarking on strategic education in Nigeria with emphasis on secondary schools.
The paper examines the link between capital structure and firm financial performance in Nigeria o... more The paper examines the link between capital structure and firm financial performance in Nigeria on basis of panel research design with secondary data spanning 2010-2014 financial year for seventy (75) sampled companies quoted in the Nigerian Stock Exchange was analysed. The data estimation technique was the 2SLS which is suitable in study perceived not be devoid of endogeneity. The result revealed that leverage as proxy by ratio of noncurrent liability to equity (NCLEQ) seems not to exhibit causality with financial performance (RETOA) vice-versa. However, there seems to be the presence of bidirectional causality between current liability expressed as a ratio to equity (CULEQ) and RETOA. Also, there is simultaneous causal link between Equity express as a ratio to overall assets (EQTTA) and RETOA. The study therefore concludes that capital structure (CULEQ and EQTTA) determines financial performance (RETOA) while simultaneously, financial performance determines capital structure in Ni...
This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian p... more This study uses St. Louis model to econometrically answer the question of whether the Keynesian policy or the Monetarist’s policy was more efficacious on employment generation in Nigerian with quarterly data for sample period of 1992 to 2016. The empirical finding is that cumulative effects of Keynesian of increasing aggregate government spending on the growth rate of employment in Nigeria is dominant in contrast to Monetarist’s policy. The policy simulation results reported negative dynamic multiplier of -0.01 of monetary policy on employment; fiscal policy gave a dynamic employment multiplier of 0.12 respectively. The study thus bears out fiscal policy as more effectual in inducing employment in Nigeria by imposing positive feedbacks. The study remarks on feasible implementation of empirical finding.
This study analyzed the impact of micro finance banks’ credit on macroeconomic variables in Niger... more This study analyzed the impact of micro finance banks’ credit on macroeconomic variables in Nigeria using a quadratic regression model. The analysis indicates that through deposit mobilization and credit delivery, micro finance banks have significantly enhanced the development of the Nigerian economy through productivity growth, employment generation, poverty reduction and investment expansion. However, the poverty reduction effect of microfinance credit is yet to be all round significant in Nigeria. To sustain the significant impact, micro finance banks need to be strengthened in terms of a stronger capital base, enabling monetary and financial policies and operational guidelines and correspondent relationship with commercial banks.
American academic & scholarly research journal, 2013
This paper performed an empirical test of the relationship between private and public health expe... more This paper performed an empirical test of the relationship between private and public health expenditures in Nigeria. Our results reveal complementarity of inputs between public and private health expenditures in Nigeria. The result is thus an indication that government health investment plans crowd in private health investment spending. The crowding in effect could be induced by government tax incentives and government regulation (policy intervention). By economic intiution, the efficiency of private health spendings is also a function of the weight of government health expenditure in the country. Implicationally therefore, the more balanced the composition of government health spending, the greater the increase in the level of effective private health care services in Nigeria. We therefore recommend that unless appropriate regulatory measures are implemented by the government, it may lead to inefficiencies that have an unplanned effect on the rest of the economy (private sector in...
Econometrically, we analyzed role of selected African stock exchanges in welcoming FDI inflows by... more Econometrically, we analyzed role of selected African stock exchanges in welcoming FDI inflows by estimating time-varying factor augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model for 2006:Q1 to 2017:Q4. Our results support FDI being massively influenced by movements in two stock market predictors namely, stock market's size, that is, total market value of stock market's listed shares calculated by multiplying a stock market’s shares listed by current market price of one share and stock market liquidity which is total value of traded shares relative to the size of the economy. By empirical inference, African stock exchanges exhibit inordinate turnover ratio and so these markets are exceedingly liquid. Particularly, transactions at stock exchange are significant indicators for foreign investors and total market value of listed shares in stock markets is linked positively with FDI inflow into Africa. The empirical finding is that viable African stock exchanges are attractive indic...
We examined the dynamics of inflation and unemployment in Nigeria using the vector error correcti... more We examined the dynamics of inflation and unemployment in Nigeria using the vector error correction methodology over a period of twenty seven years. The study finds evidence of stagflation in the Nigerian economy over the period of study. In fact, the Nigerian economy is managing a shocking rate of inflation together with a severe recession as the unemployment rate has risen astronomically. Consequently, the Nigerian economy is at a cross road. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the CBN maintains a stance of gradual reduction of the benchmark inflation rate to a single digit as the excessive contraction of the monetary policy rate seems to have become counterproductive in recent times. Single digit inflation rate can be achieved if the CBN could increase GDP growth above money supply and increase lending to the real sector of the economy. Keywords: Inflation targeting, unemployment, monetary policy, stagflation, Nigeria, Phillips curve, NAIRU
This paper seeks to investigate the empiricism behind the New National Tax Policy in Nigeria by e... more This paper seeks to investigate the empiricism behind the New National Tax Policy in Nigeria by employing co-integration and error correction as methods of empirical estimation with an empirical strategy of disaggregation. In line with the objective of the paper, empirical results indicate that while the policy of direct taxation is significantly and positively correlated with economic growth, indirect taxation proved insignificant with its negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Â The paper indeed ascertained that the tax-based revenue profile in Nigeria is skewed towards direct taxes. By implication, the global transition from direct taxation to indirect taxation lack empirical justification in developing countries such as Nigeria. Thus, we recommend that rather than expand the indirect tax structures, the government should expand the structures of direct taxes in Nigeria. Â A major contribution of the paper to knowledge is the fact that on the basis of the hypotheses tested,...
The study empirically examines a co-integrated model of financial stability of Nigerian financial... more The study empirically examines a co-integrated model of financial stability of Nigerian financial sector in relation to credit financing over the sample period 1990 to 2016. The methodology of error correction was adopted in the study. The study found that credit financing and financial stability are positively linked. Nevertheless, with ecm coefficient of 1.798, the Nigeria’s financial system is unstable; any short run disturbance to the nation’s financial sector will not be restored in the nearest future. Moreover, the coefficient of financial depth is negative implying instability in money supply. As a result, level of the Nigeria’s financial deepening does not enhance the stability of the country’s financial sector. In effect, narrow financial depth causes instability of financial system in Nigeria. So, need arises for resistant and robust institutional advancement of the financial sector, while resilient emphasis on fund enlistment is needed. Also, government should ensure the ...
This paper estimates import demand functions for Nigeria using yearly data for 2000 to 2017 on ba... more This paper estimates import demand functions for Nigeria using yearly data for 2000 to 2017 on basis of dynamics of distributed lag model in line with first-order Koyck lag transformation. GLS estimator was utilized in two ways: Estimation without any restriction imposed on lag coefficients and estimation by restricting Koyck lag weights to satisfy erstwhile assumption of smoothness. Our chosen restriction was such that lag coefficients exponentially decline from initial impact to zero at a lag length of s . For estimation without restrictions, probability values of Wald statistic were insignificant. As regards estimation with restrictions, our restrictions on lag coefficients were significant and as such our analysis of results was focussed on estimations with coefficient restrictions. The empirics upholds structural import equation as most well-behaved import function for predicting variation in Nigeria’s demand for importation with a mean lag of 1.088 years, median lag of 1.063 y...
Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 2013
This study evaluated the impact of macroeconomic policy on aggregate investment in Nigeria over t... more This study evaluated the impact of macroeconomic policy on aggregate investment in Nigeria over the sample period of forty three years. The Granger Two-Step method of co-integration and error correction estimation were adopted in the study. The study ascertained a significant positive impact of monetary policy on investment growth in Nigeria; the investment effect of trade policy is positive but insignificant while that of fiscal policy is absolutely negative and significant. Also, the results suggest that investment in Nigeria is dynamically unstable. Indeed, there is a long-run disequilibrium relationship between the growth of investment and macroeconomic policy in Nigeria. Hence, any short term disturbance in the equilibrating process of investors in relation to changes in the domestic interest rate, total government expenditures, trade openness and the amount of money in circulation will not be restored until probably when the government augments monetary policy with other econo...
The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies corre... more The study substantiates effects of policy coordination between fiscal and monetary policies correspondingly on economic growth in Nigeria. We specified dynamic simultaneous equation to describe mutual quest for macroeconomic stabilization within coordinated policy framework between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Employing annual data, from 1980 to 2017 with application of GMM technique, implication of results is that fiscal policy and monetary policy variables mutually explain output growth significantly with view to stabilizing Nigerian economy. Indeed, with policy coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, output growth is significantly remarkable. This advances validation of optimal policy mix for macroeconomic stabilization. Fiscal policy is countercyclical in its effects which conform to Keynesian stabilization assertion while monetary policy was is pro-cyclical. This result could be implying fiscal dominance in determination of price level. In effect, it c...
This study is an econometric exploration of the impact of differential trade preferences on the E... more This study is an econometric exploration of the impact of differential trade preferences on the Economic Society of West African Countries with focus on the Cotonou Agreement period of 2001 to 2013. The aim was to empirically evaluate using panel least squares regression method the degree to which the preferential trade agreement between EU and ECOWAS has affected intra-ECOWAS integration. Given a significant interactive effect, we accept the supposition that EU exceptional trade agreements with ECOWAS countries have not significantly enhanced intra-ECOWAS trade. Accordingly, the study found that the adverse effect of ECOWAS openness to the EU on ECOWAS intra-trade is instituted on intermittent differentials of favored treatments to different ECOWAS member countries. There is need for the consistency of the special treatment of ECOWAS by the EU.
The paper analyzes the policy implications of the big-push model for development in Nigeria. The ... more The paper analyzes the policy implications of the big-push model for development in Nigeria. The highlights of the analysis include existence of three interrelated perceptions namely, poverty trap, big push (BP) and takeoff. The basic idea is that poor countries are in poverty, hence needs BP linking amplified investment, leading to takeoff in national income and development. This indeed rationalizes necessity for overseas aid. In effect, minimum infrastructure and educational resources be apportioned to development programme to achieve success. However, nations that have implemented coordinated investment programs can achieve industrialization of each sector and thus be able push forward sequence of development.
This paper attempts to analyze the labour productivity effects of health capital in Nigeria. The ... more This paper attempts to analyze the labour productivity effects of health capital in Nigeria. The GMM methodology was adopted in the estimation having tested for unit root and possible co-integration. We find that health capital investment is a significant determinant of labour productivity. Evident from the hypotheses the null hypothesis of an insignificant impact of health capital investment on labour productivity in Nigeria is vehemently invalidated on the basis of a significant Wald coefficient. The analysis indicates that health capital investment enhances productivity of the labour force. Given that Nigeria is a highly labour-intensive economy, importance must be accorded to having a healthier workforce in order to maximize productivity. Another essential finding in the study lies in the statistical significance of the education-labour and health capital-labour interaction terms. The Nigerian government has to build capacity through investment in education in order to enhance p...
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Papers by David Umoru