This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capabi... more This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capability of the country and the optimal allocation of its government budget. We assert that the effectiveness of the country’s military intelligence is contingent on the quality of its human capital, which, in turn, implies a long-term positive relationship between the government’s various civilian expenditures and its capacity to achieve a cost-effective intelligence and, hence, military capability. This relationship is developed within a multiple-period arms race model between two rivals. Using this model and stylized data for the Israeli–Syrian arms race, we show that an appropriate budget shift from defense to civilian expenditures during the initial periods of the planning horizon will gradually (over a decade, say) increase the quality of human capital in the country and, thus, the effectiveness of its intelligence, which, in turn, will increase the country’s future security and welfare.
ABSTRACT Our paper explores the optimal investment in integrative technologies (such as command a... more ABSTRACT Our paper explores the optimal investment in integrative technologies (such as command and control systems), which are a major part of defense R&D at the beginning of the 21st century. Employing a dynamic optimization framework, we find that under linear development costs, it may be optimal or nearly optimal to build military forces using a myopic, short-termed, approach. In such cases, it would be optimal to transform an armed force into a network-centric environment within just a few years. When development costs are convex however, early investment in technological infrastructure is required, extending the transformation period over more than a decade.
... (2.2) Let the "superHessian" matrix A be given by (yi), (yA= [(1);(yi),.,(yK); (yiy... more ... (2.2) Let the "superHessian" matrix A be given by (yi), (yA= [(1);(yi),.,(yK); (yiy2)..K);... yi) lyl ly2)1...,(yK)], (2.3) where the expressions in the parentheses are the following column vectors: . oz oz o2z o2z (z) z, axl "." oxK' axi ' oxlox2"' o2z Xz arz orz oxK' .. ...
In this paper we incorporate the non-synchronic responses of different inputs to changes in relat... more In this paper we incorporate the non-synchronic responses of different inputs to changes in relative factor prices and develop sufficient conditions under which time-differentiated (over the day) electricity inputs are complements or substitutes. Similar sufficient conditions are developed for time-differentiated labour inputs. We also examine the strong, and sometimes one-directional, relationships between the distributions over the day of the demands for labour and electricity. These relationships depend, among other factors, on the objective function of the firm (profit maximization, cost minimization) and on the specific time-of-use (TOU) schedules (of labour, electricity, etc.). Our results are also dependent on the assumption that firms can adjust inputs to changes in input prices on an hourly basis; more specifically, the underlying technology is assumed to be given by an hourly production function. Two issues are emphasized in the analysis. First, we show that short-run cost minimization may be an inappropriate procedure for cost-benefit analysis. Second, under the model developed in this paper, the commonly used weak separability assumption (between electricity and other inputs) implies radically different relationships among the time-differentiated inputs under profit maximization and cost minimization.
... North-Holland Optimal production with uncertain interruptions in the supply of electricity Es... more ... North-Holland Optimal production with uncertain interruptions in the supply of electricity Estimation of electricity outage costs Asher Tishler* Tel-Aviv University, Tel ... hanks are due to M. Amit, D. Caves, HP Chao, A. Daughety, M. Henig, A. Nir, CK Woo and a referee for valuable ...
This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capabi... more This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capability of the country and the optimal allocation of its government budget. We assert that the effectiveness of the country’s military intelligence is contingent on the quality of its human capital, which, in turn, implies a long-term positive relationship between the government’s various civilian expenditures and its capacity to achieve a cost-effective intelligence and, hence, military capability. This relationship is developed within a multiple-period arms race model between two rivals. Using this model and stylized data for the Israeli–Syrian arms race, we show that an appropriate budget shift from defense to civilian expenditures during the initial periods of the planning horizon will gradually (over a decade, say) increase the quality of human capital in the country and, thus, the effectiveness of its intelligence, which, in turn, will increase the country’s future security and welfare.
ABSTRACT Our paper explores the optimal investment in integrative technologies (such as command a... more ABSTRACT Our paper explores the optimal investment in integrative technologies (such as command and control systems), which are a major part of defense R&D at the beginning of the 21st century. Employing a dynamic optimization framework, we find that under linear development costs, it may be optimal or nearly optimal to build military forces using a myopic, short-termed, approach. In such cases, it would be optimal to transform an armed force into a network-centric environment within just a few years. When development costs are convex however, early investment in technological infrastructure is required, extending the transformation period over more than a decade.
... (2.2) Let the "superHessian" matrix A be given by (yi), (yA= [(1);(yi),.,(yK); (yiy... more ... (2.2) Let the "superHessian" matrix A be given by (yi), (yA= [(1);(yi),.,(yK); (yiy2)..K);... yi) lyl ly2)1...,(yK)], (2.3) where the expressions in the parentheses are the following column vectors: . oz oz o2z o2z (z) z, axl "." oxK' axi ' oxlox2"' o2z Xz arz orz oxK' .. ...
In this paper we incorporate the non-synchronic responses of different inputs to changes in relat... more In this paper we incorporate the non-synchronic responses of different inputs to changes in relative factor prices and develop sufficient conditions under which time-differentiated (over the day) electricity inputs are complements or substitutes. Similar sufficient conditions are developed for time-differentiated labour inputs. We also examine the strong, and sometimes one-directional, relationships between the distributions over the day of the demands for labour and electricity. These relationships depend, among other factors, on the objective function of the firm (profit maximization, cost minimization) and on the specific time-of-use (TOU) schedules (of labour, electricity, etc.). Our results are also dependent on the assumption that firms can adjust inputs to changes in input prices on an hourly basis; more specifically, the underlying technology is assumed to be given by an hourly production function. Two issues are emphasized in the analysis. First, we show that short-run cost minimization may be an inappropriate procedure for cost-benefit analysis. Second, under the model developed in this paper, the commonly used weak separability assumption (between electricity and other inputs) implies radically different relationships among the time-differentiated inputs under profit maximization and cost minimization.
... North-Holland Optimal production with uncertain interruptions in the supply of electricity Es... more ... North-Holland Optimal production with uncertain interruptions in the supply of electricity Estimation of electricity outage costs Asher Tishler* Tel-Aviv University, Tel ... hanks are due to M. Amit, D. Caves, HP Chao, A. Daughety, M. Henig, A. Nir, CK Woo and a referee for valuable ...
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