Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020
Vietnam has witnessed a rapid increase in national-level CO 2 emissions due to rising urbanizatio... more Vietnam has witnessed a rapid increase in national-level CO 2 emissions due to rising urbanization, economic expansion, export growth, and industrial development. Moreover, to support the ambitious economic growth targets, reliance on and consumption of fossil fuels are increasing by each passing year. With this circumstance, this study aims to analyze the key drivers of CO 2 emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2016 using the Kaya identity and decomposition method. Following this approach, CO 2 emissions have been decomposed into five effect categories comprising population, affluence, energy intensity, fuel mix, and emission intensity. As per the results, CO 2 emissions in Vietnam were mainly driven by rising affluence (58.5%) and changing fuel mix (33.2%) which have resulted from improved living standards, rapid industrial development, and higher fossil fuel consumption. Moreover, population (13.8%) and emission intensity (3.1%) exhibited a relatively lower impact on CO 2 emissions during 1990-2016. However, energy intensity (− 8.7%) was the only negative driver which has resulted in the slowdown of carbon emissions in Vietnam. Based on the analysis of energy policy development, the share of renewable energy resources was still quite low in the national energy mix with higher reliance on traditional fossil fuels (mainly coal and petroleum). Therefore, to make a transition towards low-carbon economic growth, significant improvements in energy efficiency and emission intensity are necessary together with national energy mix restructuring for low-carbon economic growth.
This study, conducted as a first try, explores the resource metabolism in three main economies in... more This study, conducted as a first try, explores the resource metabolism in three main economies in South Asia (in terms of both scale and growing rate of economy) namely Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, with a standard economy-wide material flow accounting approach using the most updated data from 1978 to 2017. In detail, resource consumption patterns, resource efficiency and productivity, trade related issues, as well as macro-policies affecting regional resource utilization were analyzed in-depth. Results highlighted that, in general, rapid consumption of imported resources, especially construction minerals, fossil fuels, and industrial minerals has emerged. Domestic material consumption per capita increased by 81%, 93% and 46% during 1978e2017 in the three countries, respectively, due to the living standards enhancement, improved urban infrastructure as well as rapid industrial development. With rapidly growing resource consumption, improvements in resource productivity were still low compared with mature economies like Japan and United States. It was 410.7 USD/t for Bangladesh, followed by India (358.7 USD/t) and Pakistan (275.0 USD/t), as of 2017. One critical finding was that resource intensive production (e.g., primary materials, textile and agricultural products etc.) was driving most of the bilateral trade among the three countries, which resulted in lower overall resource productivity. The other critical insight was the future increasing pressure on regional and global resource competition, according to the revealed rising inflow of foreign resources in the studied countries. Finally, the macro-policy analysis highlighted that the impacts of environmental protection and resource efficiency policies were far from enough. And, lower per capita GDP of this region was still a significant impediment for integrated environmental and resources management. Higher focus on resource productivity, from a policy perspective, on agricultural and industrial sectors is highly recommended to forward beneficial implications for the selected countries.
The ecologically efficient transformation of natural resources into economic output is a critical... more The ecologically efficient transformation of natural resources into economic output is a critical pathway to achieve urban and industrial sustainability. Eco-efficiency approach offers an effective tool to uncover both the status and trends of such a transformation. This paper applied a modified eco-efficiency approach in combination with data envelopment analysis, to analyze the sustainability transition of Ulsan metropolis, Korea, under a fifteen years' promotion (2000e2015) of eco-industrial development (EID). In the design for analysis, eco-efficiency change e both at industrial park level and the regional level e was investigated to analyze whether eco-efficiency improvements at the park level coincide with those at the regional level. Our main findings were highlighted as: At the regional level, from 2000 to 2015, eco-efficiency of industrial waste generation and energy use has improved by 35.0% and 21.4%, respectively, driven by a significant reduction in waste and energy intensities attributable to technological improvements ventative and regenerative approach to improve eco-efficiency at the regional and industrial park level, enlightening other regional and local initiatives towards urban sustainability.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research , 2019
This study explores the climate impacts of on-road tourist transportation with alternate mitigati... more This study explores the climate impacts of on-road tourist transportation with alternate mitigation strategies. To this end, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2016 and emissions under four Bwhat-if^scenarios were estimated for a popular tourist site in Pakistan, i.e., Murree Hills, using the international vehicle emissions model. Alternate scenarios included occupancy optimization, bus transit system, and Euro II and Euro IV implementation. The emissions were further decomposed using the log mean Divisia index method to study the drivers of global warming potential (GWP) mitigation. As per the results, the total 20-year GWP for 2016 was equal to 51,262 tons CO 2 equivalent, and maximum reduction was achieved under the bus transit system scenario having a 20-year GWP of 25,736 tons CO 2 equivalent, i.e., 49.8% reduction. Relative to the base year, GWP reductions were also quite significant for Euro IV (46.8%), Euro II (45.8%), and occupancy optimization (32.3%) scenarios. For the base year, CO 2 held a share of 87.3% in total emissions; however, its share in the 20-year GWP was 39.7% indicating its reduced impact on total GWP as compared to N 2 O, CO, NOx, VOC, and CH 4. Based on the decomposition results for alternate scenarios, GWP mitigation was mainly driven by CO, CH 4 , NOx, VOCs, and partially by CO 2 , while N 2 O negatively affected GWP mitigation. These results provide several policy-level instruments for developing countries to design a transition to an eco-friendly tourist transport management system. The policy implications from this study can be used to promote an eco-tourism industry.
Waste foundry sand (WFS) and fly ash D-Optimal mixture design/response surface methodology/design... more Waste foundry sand (WFS) and fly ash D-Optimal mixture design/response surface methodology/design of experiments Statistical optimization Geopolymer concrete (GPC) Compressive strength A B S T R A C T This work examines the partial replacement of fine aggregates with waste foundry sand (WFS) and fly ash, process by-products, to synthesize geopolymer concrete (GPC). D-optimal mixture design of experiments was adopted to guide the proportion of mixture constituents (fine aggregates, WFS, and fly ash) to obtain desired responses (high compressive strengths). The experimentally measured responses/compressive strengths were successfully fitted to Scheffe polynomial model to obtain cubic models which represent compressive strengths of solidified GPC at 7 th day curing time (CS 7) and at 28 th day curing time (CS 28). The models were statistically evaluated by the standard error of design estimation and experimentally verified by comparing their predicted responses to the independently performed experiments. The models were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and residuals (diagnostics) for statistical significance and validation, respectively. The established models, hence obtained, were used to assess the impacts of relative proportions of mixture constituents at CS 7 and CS 28. It was observed that, although the highest compressive strength requires a high proportion of fine aggregates, yet, some mixture compositions could be proposed for better utilization of waste materials. Finally, the optimization was performed to maximize the usage of WFS and fly ash. A recipe was identified which yielded 18.9 N/mm² CS 7 and 22.3 N/mm² CS 28 by mere 32 wt. % contribution of fine aggregates in a (fine aggregates + WFS + fly ash) mixture. This study can be helpful in designing experiments and optimizing the utilization of similar waste materials into useful products.
To realize higher yields of mono-alkyl esters (Biodiesel) without sacrificing the environment and... more To realize higher yields of mono-alkyl esters (Biodiesel) without sacrificing the environment and food sources; various researchers have considered utilizing different waste materials. In this work lipid extraction and their conversion into esters from wastewater sludge was investigated using a mixture of polar and non-polar solvents, methanol and homogeneous sulfuric acid catalyst. The effect of solvent extraction time, concentration of acidic catalyst used and the esterification reaction time to produce esters is reported for ex-situ two step and in-situ one step method. The whole experimental work of ex-situ/in-situ extraction and esterification was performed at a temperature of 100 C and mixing rate of 100 rpm. Solvent extraction yield of lipids increased from 34 to 53% in two to six hours of solvent extraction. It was found that acidic catalyst concentration in the esterification mixture and esterification reaction time both have a major impact on esters yield. A highest ester yield of 78% was noted in the ex-situ two step method with two hours of esterification of filtered lipids and a 55% ester yield was noted in the in-situ one step method after six hours of simultaneous extraction and esterification in the same reactor respectively. ARTICLE HISTORY
Ethiopia, among the fastest growing economies worldwide, is witnessing rapid urbanization and ind... more Ethiopia, among the fastest growing economies worldwide, is witnessing rapid urbanization and industrialization that is fueled by greater energy consumption and high levels of CO2 emissions. Currently, Ethiopia is the third largest CO2 emitter in East Africa, yet no comprehensive study has characterized the major drivers of economy-wide CO2 emissions. This paper examines the energy-related CO2 emissions in Ethiopia, and their driving forces between 1990 and 2017 using Kaya identity combined with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition approach. Main findings reveal that energy-based CO2 emissions have been strongly driven by the economic effect (52%), population effect (43%), and fossil fuel mix effect (40%) while the role of emission intensity effect (14%) was less pronounced during the study period. At the same time, energy intensity improvements have slowed down the growth of CO2 emissions by 49% indicating significant progress towards reduced energy per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) during 1990-2017. Nonetheless, for Ethiopia to achieve its 2030 targets of low-carbon economy, further improvements through reduced emission intensity (in the industrial sector) and fossil fuel share (in the national energy mix) are recommended. Energy intensity could be further improved by technological innovation and promotion of energy-frugal industries.
The IVE model is used to estimate light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad for 2014. Emission re... more The IVE model is used to estimate light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad for 2014. Emission reductions by vehicle technology upgrade scenarios were estimated. Composite emission factors were calculated for 2014. Significant climate cobenefits estimated to be achieved by technology upgrade. a b s t r a c t Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) hold a major share in Islamabad's vehicle fleet and their contribution towards air pollution has not been analyzed previously. Emissions for the base year (2014) and two optimistic 'what-if' scenarios were estimated by using the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model. Considering the recent implementation of Euro II as emission standard in Pakistan, scenario 1 assumed entire LDV fleet meeting at least Euro II standards while scenario 2 assumed all LDVs meeting Euro IV standards except motorcycles which would be meeting Euro III emission standards. Higher average age for all vehicles and lower share of Euro compliant vehicles was found in the base case. Low engine stress mode (lower speeds with frequent decelerations) was observed for all vehicles especially on arterials and residential roads. Highest overall emissions (59%) were observed on arterials, followed by residential roads (24%) and highways (17%) with higher emissions observed during morning (8e10 am) and evening (4e6 pm) rush hours. Composite emission factors were also calculated. Results reveal that 1094, 147, 11.1, 0.2 and 0.4 kt of CO 2 , CO, NOx, SO 2 and PM 10 respectively were emitted in 2014 by LDVs. Compared with the base year, scenario 1 showed a reduction of 9%, 69%, 73%, 13% and 31%, while scenario 2 exhibited a reduction of 5%, 92%, 90%, 92% and 81% for CO 2 , CO, NOx, SO 2 and PM 10 respectively. As compared to the base year, a 20 year CO 2-equivalent Global Warming Potential (GWP) reduced by 55% and 64% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively, while a 100 year GWP reduced by 40% and 44% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Our results demonstrated significant co-benefits that could be achieved in emission reduction and air quality improvement in the city by vehicle technology implementation.
With economic growth in many developing countries, not all are making similar progress with regar... more With economic growth in many developing countries, not all are making similar progress with regard to material and environmental efficiencies. This study examines material use and CO 2 emission patterns and intensities from 1971 to 2015 in a typical developing country, Pakistan, and investigates national-level and multi-country-level efficiency improvements using data envelopment analysis. The results are used to derive key policy insights for a sustainable economic transition with higher resource and carbon efficiencies. Results show that material intensity has reduced by 39.1% while CO 2 intensity has risen by 21.5% in the country. Pakistan, when compared with its top 10 export countries, was relatively more material and CO 2 intensive. National-level efficiency was found to be low in most of the periods due to material/energy intensive agriculture and industries, low value-added exports, etc. Insights from the national-level efficiency analysis indicate that surging CO 2 intensities have started to decline since 2010 and the economy has greatly stabilized. Multi-country analysis revealed that the efficiency gap between Pakistan and its developed export countries (such as the United Kingdom and France) has widened during the study period.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020
The efficient consumption of material and energy resources, with minimal carbon emissions and max... more The efficient consumption of material and energy resources, with minimal carbon emissions and maximum economic output, is globally significant. This study examines the metabolic transition of resource use and CO 2 emissions in nine of the largest economies of East, South, and Southeast Asia. A data envelopment model has been developed to assess the efficiency of domestic material consumption and CO 2 emissions during 1971-2016 at three levels of analysis. The single-country analysis results reveal that China has made the most rapid efficiency transformation during 1971-2016 followed by Japan and South Korea, while the rest of the countries in South and Southeast Asia have not illustrated significant improvements. Results from the analysis of socioeconomically grouped countries show that Japan and Bangladesh are the relatively efficient economies in East and South Asia, respectively. Among Southeast Asian countries, both Indonesia and Malaysia were found to be efficient. Based on the regional analysis comparing all nine countries, Japan has consistently remained a relatively efficient economy while China-despite rapid improvements-remains a relatively inefficient economy. To this end, Japan had the lowest material and CO 2 intensities compared to all other countries. Based on our results, technological advancement, industry structure, and scale of traded goods and services were found to have a significant impact (the impact of per capita income was less pronounced) on a country's effective resource utilization and carbon mitigation.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020
Vietnam has witnessed a rapid increase in national-level CO 2 emissions due to rising urbanizatio... more Vietnam has witnessed a rapid increase in national-level CO 2 emissions due to rising urbanization, economic expansion, export growth, and industrial development. Moreover, to support the ambitious economic growth targets, reliance on and consumption of fossil fuels are increasing by each passing year. With this circumstance, this study aims to analyze the key drivers of CO 2 emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2016 using the Kaya identity and decomposition method. Following this approach, CO 2 emissions have been decomposed into five effect categories comprising population, affluence, energy intensity, fuel mix, and emission intensity. As per the results, CO 2 emissions in Vietnam were mainly driven by rising affluence (58.5%) and changing fuel mix (33.2%) which have resulted from improved living standards, rapid industrial development, and higher fossil fuel consumption. Moreover, population (13.8%) and emission intensity (3.1%) exhibited a relatively lower impact on CO 2 emissions during 1990-2016. However, energy intensity (− 8.7%) was the only negative driver which has resulted in the slowdown of carbon emissions in Vietnam. Based on the analysis of energy policy development, the share of renewable energy resources was still quite low in the national energy mix with higher reliance on traditional fossil fuels (mainly coal and petroleum). Therefore, to make a transition towards low-carbon economic growth, significant improvements in energy efficiency and emission intensity are necessary together with national energy mix restructuring for low-carbon economic growth.
This study, conducted as a first try, explores the resource metabolism in three main economies in... more This study, conducted as a first try, explores the resource metabolism in three main economies in South Asia (in terms of both scale and growing rate of economy) namely Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, with a standard economy-wide material flow accounting approach using the most updated data from 1978 to 2017. In detail, resource consumption patterns, resource efficiency and productivity, trade related issues, as well as macro-policies affecting regional resource utilization were analyzed in-depth. Results highlighted that, in general, rapid consumption of imported resources, especially construction minerals, fossil fuels, and industrial minerals has emerged. Domestic material consumption per capita increased by 81%, 93% and 46% during 1978e2017 in the three countries, respectively, due to the living standards enhancement, improved urban infrastructure as well as rapid industrial development. With rapidly growing resource consumption, improvements in resource productivity were still low compared with mature economies like Japan and United States. It was 410.7 USD/t for Bangladesh, followed by India (358.7 USD/t) and Pakistan (275.0 USD/t), as of 2017. One critical finding was that resource intensive production (e.g., primary materials, textile and agricultural products etc.) was driving most of the bilateral trade among the three countries, which resulted in lower overall resource productivity. The other critical insight was the future increasing pressure on regional and global resource competition, according to the revealed rising inflow of foreign resources in the studied countries. Finally, the macro-policy analysis highlighted that the impacts of environmental protection and resource efficiency policies were far from enough. And, lower per capita GDP of this region was still a significant impediment for integrated environmental and resources management. Higher focus on resource productivity, from a policy perspective, on agricultural and industrial sectors is highly recommended to forward beneficial implications for the selected countries.
The ecologically efficient transformation of natural resources into economic output is a critical... more The ecologically efficient transformation of natural resources into economic output is a critical pathway to achieve urban and industrial sustainability. Eco-efficiency approach offers an effective tool to uncover both the status and trends of such a transformation. This paper applied a modified eco-efficiency approach in combination with data envelopment analysis, to analyze the sustainability transition of Ulsan metropolis, Korea, under a fifteen years' promotion (2000e2015) of eco-industrial development (EID). In the design for analysis, eco-efficiency change e both at industrial park level and the regional level e was investigated to analyze whether eco-efficiency improvements at the park level coincide with those at the regional level. Our main findings were highlighted as: At the regional level, from 2000 to 2015, eco-efficiency of industrial waste generation and energy use has improved by 35.0% and 21.4%, respectively, driven by a significant reduction in waste and energy intensities attributable to technological improvements ventative and regenerative approach to improve eco-efficiency at the regional and industrial park level, enlightening other regional and local initiatives towards urban sustainability.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research , 2019
This study explores the climate impacts of on-road tourist transportation with alternate mitigati... more This study explores the climate impacts of on-road tourist transportation with alternate mitigation strategies. To this end, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2016 and emissions under four Bwhat-if^scenarios were estimated for a popular tourist site in Pakistan, i.e., Murree Hills, using the international vehicle emissions model. Alternate scenarios included occupancy optimization, bus transit system, and Euro II and Euro IV implementation. The emissions were further decomposed using the log mean Divisia index method to study the drivers of global warming potential (GWP) mitigation. As per the results, the total 20-year GWP for 2016 was equal to 51,262 tons CO 2 equivalent, and maximum reduction was achieved under the bus transit system scenario having a 20-year GWP of 25,736 tons CO 2 equivalent, i.e., 49.8% reduction. Relative to the base year, GWP reductions were also quite significant for Euro IV (46.8%), Euro II (45.8%), and occupancy optimization (32.3%) scenarios. For the base year, CO 2 held a share of 87.3% in total emissions; however, its share in the 20-year GWP was 39.7% indicating its reduced impact on total GWP as compared to N 2 O, CO, NOx, VOC, and CH 4. Based on the decomposition results for alternate scenarios, GWP mitigation was mainly driven by CO, CH 4 , NOx, VOCs, and partially by CO 2 , while N 2 O negatively affected GWP mitigation. These results provide several policy-level instruments for developing countries to design a transition to an eco-friendly tourist transport management system. The policy implications from this study can be used to promote an eco-tourism industry.
Waste foundry sand (WFS) and fly ash D-Optimal mixture design/response surface methodology/design... more Waste foundry sand (WFS) and fly ash D-Optimal mixture design/response surface methodology/design of experiments Statistical optimization Geopolymer concrete (GPC) Compressive strength A B S T R A C T This work examines the partial replacement of fine aggregates with waste foundry sand (WFS) and fly ash, process by-products, to synthesize geopolymer concrete (GPC). D-optimal mixture design of experiments was adopted to guide the proportion of mixture constituents (fine aggregates, WFS, and fly ash) to obtain desired responses (high compressive strengths). The experimentally measured responses/compressive strengths were successfully fitted to Scheffe polynomial model to obtain cubic models which represent compressive strengths of solidified GPC at 7 th day curing time (CS 7) and at 28 th day curing time (CS 28). The models were statistically evaluated by the standard error of design estimation and experimentally verified by comparing their predicted responses to the independently performed experiments. The models were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and residuals (diagnostics) for statistical significance and validation, respectively. The established models, hence obtained, were used to assess the impacts of relative proportions of mixture constituents at CS 7 and CS 28. It was observed that, although the highest compressive strength requires a high proportion of fine aggregates, yet, some mixture compositions could be proposed for better utilization of waste materials. Finally, the optimization was performed to maximize the usage of WFS and fly ash. A recipe was identified which yielded 18.9 N/mm² CS 7 and 22.3 N/mm² CS 28 by mere 32 wt. % contribution of fine aggregates in a (fine aggregates + WFS + fly ash) mixture. This study can be helpful in designing experiments and optimizing the utilization of similar waste materials into useful products.
To realize higher yields of mono-alkyl esters (Biodiesel) without sacrificing the environment and... more To realize higher yields of mono-alkyl esters (Biodiesel) without sacrificing the environment and food sources; various researchers have considered utilizing different waste materials. In this work lipid extraction and their conversion into esters from wastewater sludge was investigated using a mixture of polar and non-polar solvents, methanol and homogeneous sulfuric acid catalyst. The effect of solvent extraction time, concentration of acidic catalyst used and the esterification reaction time to produce esters is reported for ex-situ two step and in-situ one step method. The whole experimental work of ex-situ/in-situ extraction and esterification was performed at a temperature of 100 C and mixing rate of 100 rpm. Solvent extraction yield of lipids increased from 34 to 53% in two to six hours of solvent extraction. It was found that acidic catalyst concentration in the esterification mixture and esterification reaction time both have a major impact on esters yield. A highest ester yield of 78% was noted in the ex-situ two step method with two hours of esterification of filtered lipids and a 55% ester yield was noted in the in-situ one step method after six hours of simultaneous extraction and esterification in the same reactor respectively. ARTICLE HISTORY
Ethiopia, among the fastest growing economies worldwide, is witnessing rapid urbanization and ind... more Ethiopia, among the fastest growing economies worldwide, is witnessing rapid urbanization and industrialization that is fueled by greater energy consumption and high levels of CO2 emissions. Currently, Ethiopia is the third largest CO2 emitter in East Africa, yet no comprehensive study has characterized the major drivers of economy-wide CO2 emissions. This paper examines the energy-related CO2 emissions in Ethiopia, and their driving forces between 1990 and 2017 using Kaya identity combined with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition approach. Main findings reveal that energy-based CO2 emissions have been strongly driven by the economic effect (52%), population effect (43%), and fossil fuel mix effect (40%) while the role of emission intensity effect (14%) was less pronounced during the study period. At the same time, energy intensity improvements have slowed down the growth of CO2 emissions by 49% indicating significant progress towards reduced energy per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) during 1990-2017. Nonetheless, for Ethiopia to achieve its 2030 targets of low-carbon economy, further improvements through reduced emission intensity (in the industrial sector) and fossil fuel share (in the national energy mix) are recommended. Energy intensity could be further improved by technological innovation and promotion of energy-frugal industries.
The IVE model is used to estimate light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad for 2014. Emission re... more The IVE model is used to estimate light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad for 2014. Emission reductions by vehicle technology upgrade scenarios were estimated. Composite emission factors were calculated for 2014. Significant climate cobenefits estimated to be achieved by technology upgrade. a b s t r a c t Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) hold a major share in Islamabad's vehicle fleet and their contribution towards air pollution has not been analyzed previously. Emissions for the base year (2014) and two optimistic 'what-if' scenarios were estimated by using the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model. Considering the recent implementation of Euro II as emission standard in Pakistan, scenario 1 assumed entire LDV fleet meeting at least Euro II standards while scenario 2 assumed all LDVs meeting Euro IV standards except motorcycles which would be meeting Euro III emission standards. Higher average age for all vehicles and lower share of Euro compliant vehicles was found in the base case. Low engine stress mode (lower speeds with frequent decelerations) was observed for all vehicles especially on arterials and residential roads. Highest overall emissions (59%) were observed on arterials, followed by residential roads (24%) and highways (17%) with higher emissions observed during morning (8e10 am) and evening (4e6 pm) rush hours. Composite emission factors were also calculated. Results reveal that 1094, 147, 11.1, 0.2 and 0.4 kt of CO 2 , CO, NOx, SO 2 and PM 10 respectively were emitted in 2014 by LDVs. Compared with the base year, scenario 1 showed a reduction of 9%, 69%, 73%, 13% and 31%, while scenario 2 exhibited a reduction of 5%, 92%, 90%, 92% and 81% for CO 2 , CO, NOx, SO 2 and PM 10 respectively. As compared to the base year, a 20 year CO 2-equivalent Global Warming Potential (GWP) reduced by 55% and 64% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively, while a 100 year GWP reduced by 40% and 44% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Our results demonstrated significant co-benefits that could be achieved in emission reduction and air quality improvement in the city by vehicle technology implementation.
With economic growth in many developing countries, not all are making similar progress with regar... more With economic growth in many developing countries, not all are making similar progress with regard to material and environmental efficiencies. This study examines material use and CO 2 emission patterns and intensities from 1971 to 2015 in a typical developing country, Pakistan, and investigates national-level and multi-country-level efficiency improvements using data envelopment analysis. The results are used to derive key policy insights for a sustainable economic transition with higher resource and carbon efficiencies. Results show that material intensity has reduced by 39.1% while CO 2 intensity has risen by 21.5% in the country. Pakistan, when compared with its top 10 export countries, was relatively more material and CO 2 intensive. National-level efficiency was found to be low in most of the periods due to material/energy intensive agriculture and industries, low value-added exports, etc. Insights from the national-level efficiency analysis indicate that surging CO 2 intensities have started to decline since 2010 and the economy has greatly stabilized. Multi-country analysis revealed that the efficiency gap between Pakistan and its developed export countries (such as the United Kingdom and France) has widened during the study period.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020
The efficient consumption of material and energy resources, with minimal carbon emissions and max... more The efficient consumption of material and energy resources, with minimal carbon emissions and maximum economic output, is globally significant. This study examines the metabolic transition of resource use and CO 2 emissions in nine of the largest economies of East, South, and Southeast Asia. A data envelopment model has been developed to assess the efficiency of domestic material consumption and CO 2 emissions during 1971-2016 at three levels of analysis. The single-country analysis results reveal that China has made the most rapid efficiency transformation during 1971-2016 followed by Japan and South Korea, while the rest of the countries in South and Southeast Asia have not illustrated significant improvements. Results from the analysis of socioeconomically grouped countries show that Japan and Bangladesh are the relatively efficient economies in East and South Asia, respectively. Among Southeast Asian countries, both Indonesia and Malaysia were found to be efficient. Based on the regional analysis comparing all nine countries, Japan has consistently remained a relatively efficient economy while China-despite rapid improvements-remains a relatively inefficient economy. To this end, Japan had the lowest material and CO 2 intensities compared to all other countries. Based on our results, technological advancement, industry structure, and scale of traded goods and services were found to have a significant impact (the impact of per capita income was less pronounced) on a country's effective resource utilization and carbon mitigation.
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Papers by Izhar H Shah