[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chy/respap/176chedp.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Forster
  • Andrew Jones
Abstract
This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of starting and quitting smoking using duration data from the British Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS). Self-reported data in individual smoking histories coupled with availability of a long time series for the tax rate on cigarettes are used to construct a longitudinal data set in which the tax rate is treated as a time varying covariate. This overcomes the problem of the lack of cross section variation in process that has plagued previous studies of smoking in Britain. The study is the first to identify tax-price elasticities for starting and quitting in Britain. Results for age of starting smoking prior to quitting are reported for Cox, Weibull and gamma models. All of the models are estimated separately for males and females and extensive diagnostic tests are used to guide model specification. A sensitivity analysis is used to assess the robustness of the estimated tax elasticities for starting and quitting. Since the early 1990s successive governments have had a commitment to annual increases in the real level of tobacco taxes, to achieve health policy objectives and encourage people to stop smoking. Our estimated price elasticities directly relate to the impact of above inflation tax rises on the number of years smoked by current smokers. The estimates of the impact of tax on the probability of starting and the age of starting are not encouraging as we do not find a significant effect. However the point estimates of the elasticity of quitting are well defined for males and robust for both males and females. All of our point estimates are in the range -0.40 to -0.63. If the typical number of years smoked is 25 years this implies that the 5% real increase in tobacco duty would lead, on average, to a reduction of between 6 and 9.5 months of smoking for each smoker. Recent estimates suggest that there are around 12.1 million current smokers in the UK (ASH 1999). Thus the potential saving in total number of years smoked across the population is substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data," Working Papers 176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:chy:respap:176chedp
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/che/documents/papers/discussionpapers/CHE%20Discussion%20Paper%20176.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2000
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewit, Eugene M & Coate, Douglas & Grossman, Michael, 1981. "The Effects of Government Regulation on Teenage Smoking," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 545-569, December.
    2. Tunali, Insan & Pritchett, Jonathan B, 1997. "Cox Regression with Alternative Concepts of Waiting Time: The New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1853," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, Jan.-Feb..
    3. Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman, 1996. "Price, Tobacco Control Policies and Youth Smoking," NBER Working Papers 5740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dorsett, Richard, 1999. "An econometric analysis of smoking prevalence among lone mothers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 429-441, August.
    5. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Wechsler, Henry, 1997. "Price, tobacco control policies and smoking among young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 359-373, June.
    6. Jones, Andrew M., 1994. "Health, addiction, social interaction and the decision to quit smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 93-110, March.
    7. Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
    8. Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
    9. Lewit, Eugene M. & Coate, Douglas, 1982. "The potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 121-145, August.
    10. Jeffrey E. Harris & Sandra W. Chan, 1999. "The continuum‐of‐addiction: cigarette smoking in relation to price among Americans aged 15–29," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-86, February.
    11. Chaloupka, Frank, 1991. "Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-742, August.
    12. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Determinants of Smoking Cessation: An Analysis of Young Adult Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 7262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Shmueli, Amir, 1996. "Smoking cessation and health: A comment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 751-754, December.
    14. Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Double-Hurdle Model of Cigarette Consumption," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 23-39, Jan.-Mar..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Göhlmann, Silja & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Smoking in Germany: Stylized Facts, Behavioral Models, and Health Policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 64, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Hammar, Henrik & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2001. "Smokers' Decisions To Quit Smoking," Working Papers in Economics 59, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Mathios, Alan, 2000. "Putting Out The Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking?," Working Papers 00-3, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Wakefield, Melanie A PhD & Chaloupka, Frank J. PhD, 1999. "Effectiveness of Comprehensive Tobacco Control Programs in Reducing Teenage Smoking: A Review," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt46n6b9mv, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    6. Jeffrey E. Harris & Beatriz Lopez-Valcarcel, 2004. "Asymmetric Social Interaction in Economics: Cigarette Smoking Among Young People in the United States, 1992-1999," NBER Working Papers 10409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0064 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hammar, Henrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2001. "The Effect Of Cigarette Prices And Antismoking Policies On The Age Of Smoking Initiation," Working Papers in Economics 62, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Ida, Takanori & Goto, Rei & Takahashi, Yuko & Nishimura, Shuzo, 2011. "Can economic-psychological parameters predict successful smoking cessation?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 285-295, May.
    11. Silja Göhlmann & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2008. "Smoking in Germany: Stylized Facts, Behavioral Models, and Health Policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 0064, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Göhlmann, Silja, 2007. "The Determinants of Smoking Initiation - Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 27, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Elena Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "Investigating Smoker's Profile: The Role of Psychosocial Characteristics and the Effectiveness of Tobacco Policy Tools," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 603-638, April.
    14. Eleni Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Efthimia Tsakiridou & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2005. "Factors Affecting Cigarette Demand," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 275-290, August.
    15. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Dee, Thomas S., 1999. "The complementarity of teen smoking and drinking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 769-793, December.
    17. Michael Grossman, 2005. "Individual Behaviours and Substance Use: The Role of Price," Advances in Health Economics and Health Services Research, in: Substance Use: Individual Behaviour, Social Interactions, Markets and Politics, pages 15-39, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Suranovic, Steven M. & Goldfarb, Robert S. & Leonard, Thomas C., 1999. "An economic theory of cigarette addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, January.
    19. Erdal Tekin & Naci Mocan & Lan Liang, 2009. "Do Adolescents with Emotional or Behavioral Problems Respond to Cigarette Prices?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(1), pages 67-85, July.
    20. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios & Yoon‐Jeong Shin & Jae‐Young Lim, 2008. "Youth smoking, cigarette prices, and anti‐smoking sentiment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 733-749, June.
    21. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Price, Clean Indoor Air, and Cigarette Smoking: Evidence from the Longitudinal Data for Young Adults," NBER Working Papers 6937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chy:respap:176chedp. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gill Forder (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/chyoruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.