[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v85y2023ics0927537123001240.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The long-run impact of the Great Recession on student debt

Author

Listed:
  • Pinto, Sérgio
  • Steinbaum, Marshall
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of local labor market shocks during the Great Recession on subsequent student debt-related outcomes for a panel of 1 million student loan borrowers between the ages 17 and 34 in 2009, following that cohort’s credit reports for the subsequent 10 years. We find that the Great Recession significantly increased student indebtedness, delinquency and default on student debt, and overall non-repayment of student loans. The Great Recession’s effect on student indebtedness amplifies throughout the length of the panel, through 2019. We find that re-enrollment in higher education in response to the recession and declining state and local funding for public institutions are two likely mechanisms by which the recession exerted such a long-term impact on the financial status of student borrowers, beyond the initial economic shock and the sluggish labor market recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinto, Sérgio & Steinbaum, Marshall, 2023. "The long-run impact of the Great Recession on student debt," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s0927537123001240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102449
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537123001240
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102449?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    2. John C. Haltiwanger & Henry R. Hyatt & Lisa B. Kahn & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 52-85, April.
    3. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    4. Kevin Rinz, 2022. "Did Timing Matter? Life Cycle Differences in Effects of Exposure to the Great Recession," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 703-735.
    5. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Nicole Gorton & Michael F. Lovenheim, 2020. "State Investment in Higher Education: Effects on Human Capital Formation, Student Debt, and Long-term Financial Outcomes of Students," NBER Working Papers 27885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    7. Andrew Barr & Sarah Turner, 2018. "A Letter and Encouragement: Does Information Increase Postsecondary Enrollment of UI Recipients?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 42-68, August.
    8. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
    9. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "Housing Booms and Busts, Labor Market Opportunities, and College Attendance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 2947-2994, October.
    10. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
    11. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Nicholas Turner, 2019. "Gainfully Employed?: Assessing the Employment and Earnings of For-Profit College Students Using Administrative Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 342-370.
    12. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Emmanuel Saez & Nicholas Turner & Danny Yagan, 2020. "Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1567-1633.
    13. Sandra E. Black & Jeffrey T. Denning & Lisa J. Dettling & Sarena Goodman & Lesley J. Turner, 2023. "Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3357-3400, December.
    14. Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, 2015. "A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 1-89.
    15. Alicia Sasser Modestino & Daniel Shoag & Joshua Ballance, 2020. "Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 793-805, October.
    16. Sandra E. Black & Lesley J. Turner & Jeffrey T. Denning, 2023. "PLUS or Minus? The Effect of Graduate School Loans on Access, Attainment, and Prices," NBER Working Papers 31291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeremy Kirk, 2024. "The Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession," Working Papers 24-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Brad Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1737-1772, July.
    3. Hershbein, Brad & Stuart, Bryan A., 2023. "Place-based consequences of person-based transfers: Evidence from recessions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Garrett Anstreicher, 2024. "Family Resources and Human Capital in Economic Downturns," Working Papers 24-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Celeste K. Carruthers & Christopher Jepsen, 2020. "Vocational Education: An International Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8718, CESifo.
    6. Goodman, Sarena & Isen, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "A day late and a dollar short: Liquidity and household formation among student borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1301-1323.
    7. Tucker Smith, 2024. "Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?," Working Papers 2411, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "EconomicDynamics Interview: Johannes Stroebel on real estate dynamics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), November.
    9. Mary A. Burke & Alicia Sasser Modestino & Shahriar Sadighi & Rachel B. Sederberg & Bledi Taska, 2019. "No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations," Working Papers 20-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Gustavo Pereira Serra, 2024. "(Trying to) Catch Up with the Higher-Skilled Joneses: Student loans in a segmented educational market from a Post-Keynesian perspective," Working Papers 2412, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    11. Choi, Sekyu & Figueroa, Nincen & Villena-Roldán, Benjamin, 2020. "Wage Cyclicality Revisited: The Role of Hiring Standards," MPRA Paper 120307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Apr 2022.
    12. Mueller, Holger M. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2019. "The rise in student loan defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 1-19.
    13. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    14. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    15. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    16. Ludger Woessmann, 2024. "Skills and Earnings: A Multidimensional Perspective on Human Capital," CESifo Working Paper Series 11428, CESifo.
    17. Shai Bernstein & Timothy McQuade & Richard R. Townsend, 2017. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 24011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Nuno Paixao, 2019. "Propagation of House Price Shocks through the Banking System," 2019 Meeting Papers 1237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Hemelt, Steven W. & Hershbein, Brad & Martin, Shawn & Stange, Kevin M., 2023. "College majors and skills: Evidence from the universe of online job ads," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Neffke, Frank & Nedelkoska, Ljubica & Wiederhold, Simon, 2024. "Skill mismatch and the costs of job displacement," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(2).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s0927537123001240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.