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Tolerant or segregated? Immigration and electoral outcomes in urban areas

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  • Carlo Devillanova
Abstract
Despite recent research evidence that an increased share of immigrants in an area causes an increase in anti‐immigrant‐party votes, the electoral impact of exposure to immigration appears virtually non‐existent—or even contrary—in urban areas. This study thus reassesses the latter using disaggregated data for Milan, Italy's second‐largest city. The spatial scale of the analysis addresses the possible bias from aggregating neighbourhoods that are experiencing different immigration inflows. Using a sharp measure of anti‐immigration vote and a new instrumental variable to address the possible endogeneity of immigrant share, I find that exposure to immigration has a positive effect on anti‐immigration‐party votes even in urban contexts. These results are of possible major interest to moderate political forces and European institutions and could usefully guide policy‐makers in designing immigrant location policies. A pesar de la evidencia de investigaciones recientes que demuestra que el aumento de la proporción de inmigrantes en una zona provoca un incremento de los votos a partidos en contra de los inmigrantes, el impacto electoral de la exposición a la inmigración parece prácticamente inexistente, o incluso opuesto, en las zonas urbanas. Así pues, este estudio reevalúa este último efecto utilizando datos desglosados para Milán, la segunda ciudad más grande de Italia. La escala espacial del análisis aborda el posible sesgo de la agregación de barrios que están experimentando diferentes influjos de inmigración. Mediante el uso de una medida aguda del voto anti‐inmigración y una nueva variable instrumental para abordar la posible endogeneidad de la cuota de inmigrantes, el estudio encontró que la exposición a la inmigración tiene un efecto positivo en los votos de los partidos anti‐inmigración incluso en contextos urbanos. Estos resultados son de posible gran interés para las fuerzas políticas moderadas y las instituciones europeas y podrían servir para orientar a los encargados de formular políticas en la elaboración de políticas de ubicación de los inmigrantes. 最近の研究から、ある地域での移民の割合の増加が移民の受け入れに反対する政党への支持票の増加をもたらしていることを示すエビデンスが得られているにも関わらず、都市部においては、移民にさらされることの選挙への影響は事実上存在しないか、あるいはむしろ逆であるようである。そこで本稿では、イタリアの第二の大都市であるミラノの細分類データを用いて、移民にさらされることの選挙への影響を再評価する。分析の空間的規模は、移民流入が異なる複数の密集居住区から生じうるバイアスに対処できる規模である。移民の受け入れの反対票の正確な集計と移民の割合の内生性に対処する新しい操作変数法による分析から、移民にさらされることは、都市部においてさえ、移民の受け入れに反対する政党の得票にプラスの影響をもたらすことが分かる。この結果は、穏健派の政治勢力とEUの機関にとって非常に重要である可能性があり、政策立案者が移民受け入れ地域に関する政策を策定する際の有用な手引きとなる可能性がある。

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Devillanova, 2021. "Tolerant or segregated? Immigration and electoral outcomes in urban areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 495-515, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:100:y:2021:i:2:p:495-515
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12582
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Piero Stanig & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "A Popular Backlash Against Globalization?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24226, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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