Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diver-sit... more Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diver-sity in the scenarios that are developed. Establishing an overview of this diversity would be useful for the further development of scenario method. However, such an overview cannot be generated without the use of a shared understanding of the typical features of scenario develop-ment and of the relevant terminology. A broadly shared scenario typology can provide this common understanding but existing typologies do not capture the diversity of scenario types. To this end we propose an updated typology, the presentation of which is the focus of this paper. We also explain how the typology was tested for its robustness in a comparative analysis of recent scenario projects.
Foresight practice has taught us that designing a Foresight exercise is far from being straightfo... more Foresight practice has taught us that designing a Foresight exercise is far from being straightforward. First of all, there is no single recipe, and yet the field of Foresight is currently saturated by different but comparable tool kits. Secondly, key issues like stakeholder commitment and the interrelation with the decision-making process remain difficult to manage although more in-depth reflections during the design phase could partially help on these. Thirdly, techniques are not always appropriately used at the right moment in the right place. As valid, we also have to admit there is a lack of thorough understanding concerning methodologies. The community of researchers and practitioners has expended during the last decade, but no real progress seems to have been made on knowledge building and in addressing methodological issues. The latter is probably due to the fact that sharing simple work practices is easier than sharing distinct strategic capabilities. Nevertheless these cap...
Abstract This slim volume is the condensation of papers presented in 1994 during a workshop held ... more Abstract This slim volume is the condensation of papers presented in 1994 during a workshop held in Florida, USA, which aimed to explore the current and potential impact of industrial activities on human and ecosystem health. Data presented imply that the US ...
Environmental constraints have always had and will always have important consequences for human d... more Environmental constraints have always had and will always have important consequences for human development. It has sometimes contributed to or even caused the reversal of such development. The possibility that such constraints will grow significantly throughout this century raises the concern that the very significant advances in human development across most of the world in recent decades will slow or even reverse. We use the International Futures (IFs) integrated forecasting system to explore three alternative scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Environmental Challenge scenario, and an Environmental Disaster scenario. Our purpose is to consider the impact of different aspects and levels of environmental constraint on the course of future human development. Using the Human Development Index (HDI) and its separate components as our key measures of development, we find that environmental constraints, directly and through a variety of indirect paths, could indeed greatly slow progres...
In this paper, we have presented the air quality submodel in LFB-QUEST. Although the air quality ... more In this paper, we have presented the air quality submodel in LFB-QUEST. Although the air quality model is highly parameterized, as required by the relatively short execution times, the interactions between the air quality module and the other make it a powerful tool in exploring the links between human behaviour and air quality. It is hoped that through the exploration
Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diver-sit... more Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diver-sity in the scenarios that are developed. Establishing an overview of this diversity would be useful for the further development of scenario method. However, such an overview cannot be generated without the use of a shared understanding of the typical features of scenario develop-ment and of the relevant terminology. A broadly shared scenario typology can provide this common understanding but existing typologies do not capture the diversity of scenario types. To this end we propose an updated typology, the presentation of which is the focus of this paper. We also explain how the typology was tested for its robustness in a comparative analysis of recent scenario projects.
Foresight practice has taught us that designing a Foresight exercise is far from being straightfo... more Foresight practice has taught us that designing a Foresight exercise is far from being straightforward. First of all, there is no single recipe, and yet the field of Foresight is currently saturated by different but comparable tool kits. Secondly, key issues like stakeholder commitment and the interrelation with the decision-making process remain difficult to manage although more in-depth reflections during the design phase could partially help on these. Thirdly, techniques are not always appropriately used at the right moment in the right place. As valid, we also have to admit there is a lack of thorough understanding concerning methodologies. The community of researchers and practitioners has expended during the last decade, but no real progress seems to have been made on knowledge building and in addressing methodological issues. The latter is probably due to the fact that sharing simple work practices is easier than sharing distinct strategic capabilities. Nevertheless these cap...
Abstract This slim volume is the condensation of papers presented in 1994 during a workshop held ... more Abstract This slim volume is the condensation of papers presented in 1994 during a workshop held in Florida, USA, which aimed to explore the current and potential impact of industrial activities on human and ecosystem health. Data presented imply that the US ...
Environmental constraints have always had and will always have important consequences for human d... more Environmental constraints have always had and will always have important consequences for human development. It has sometimes contributed to or even caused the reversal of such development. The possibility that such constraints will grow significantly throughout this century raises the concern that the very significant advances in human development across most of the world in recent decades will slow or even reverse. We use the International Futures (IFs) integrated forecasting system to explore three alternative scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Environmental Challenge scenario, and an Environmental Disaster scenario. Our purpose is to consider the impact of different aspects and levels of environmental constraint on the course of future human development. Using the Human Development Index (HDI) and its separate components as our key measures of development, we find that environmental constraints, directly and through a variety of indirect paths, could indeed greatly slow progres...
In this paper, we have presented the air quality submodel in LFB-QUEST. Although the air quality ... more In this paper, we have presented the air quality submodel in LFB-QUEST. Although the air quality model is highly parameterized, as required by the relatively short execution times, the interactions between the air quality module and the other make it a powerful tool in exploring the links between human behaviour and air quality. It is hoped that through the exploration
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