Latino vote

The Latino vote or refers to the voting trends during elections in the United States by eligible voters of Latino background. This phrase is usually mentioned by the media as a way to label voters of this ethnicity, and to opine that this demographic group could potentially tilt the outcome of an election, and how candidates have developed messaging strategies to this ethnic group.^[1]^[2]

Voting demographics

Per the Pew Research Center, the top states with the highest percentage of eligible Latino voters in 2020 were: New Mexico (42.8%), California (30.5%), Texas (30.4%), Arizona (23.6%), Florida (20.5%), Nevada (19.7%), Colorado (15.9%), New Jersey (15.3%), New York (14.8%), Connecticut (12.3%), Illinois (11.6%), and Rhode Island (11.3%).^[3]

Low voting turnout

President Bill Clinton and his Latino appointees in 1998

In 2006, the percentage of Latinos who participate in political activities varies, but rarely exceeds half of those eligible.^[4] In general, Latinos participate in common civic activities, such as voting, at much lower rates than nearby non-Latino whites or blacks. Approximately 57.9 percent of U.S. citizen adult Latinos were registered to vote at the time of the 2004 election, and 47.2 percent turned out to vote.^[5] The voter registration and turnout rates are approximately 10 percent lower than those of non-Latino blacks and 18 percent lower than those of non-Latino whites.

To explain low voter turnout among Latinos, researchers have analyzed voter participation demographics throughout many years. Per a 2002 study, researchers have found many explanations as towards why Latinos have a low voter turnout. There are explanations that account for physical barriers such as lack of transportation. As well as systemic barriers such as, harassment, discrimination, inadequate numbers of polling booths, inconvenient placements of polling booths, and biased administration of election laws may suppress Latino access to registering and voting.^[6]

One of the biggest explanation for low Latino voter turn outs is associated with accurately measuring the Latino vote based on a general population that includes many non-citizens. The number of adult non-U.S. citizens rose from 1.9 million in 1976 to more than 8.4 million in 2000, a 350 percent increase.^[5] Thus, the share of Latino nonparticipants are overwhelmingly non-U.S. citizens.

Another explanation for low levels of Latino voter turnout stems from the relatively young age of the Latino population.^[7] For example, 40 percent of the California Latino population was under eighteen years of age in 1985.

Individuals with lower incomes vote at lower rates than people with higher incomes. In terms of income, the general argument is that individuals with higher socioeconomic status have the civic skills, the participatory attitudes, and the time and money to facilitate participation.^[8] Education is also positively related to participation and vote choice, as Latinos with a college degree and postgraduate training are more likely to vote. More than 30 percent of Latino adult citizens have less than a high school education, while 12 percent of non-Latino white adult citizens have less than a high school education.^[5] Therefore, low participation may result from low levels of knowledge about the political process that should be garnered through formal education.

This does vary based on country of origin. A 2003 study discussed how female Mexican-Americans and those attaining higher levels of income were more likely to register, and in turn, participate in voting.^[9] The same study concluded that education and marital status posed the primary barriers to Puerto Rican voter registration.^[9] These sorts of variations in factors seem to be present across many Latino communities in the United States. Additionally, studies have shown that the presence of Latino/a candidates on the ballot tends to yield a higher voter turnout among these communities.^[10] This is in part due to the strong association between cultural identification and partisanship.^[10] The ever-growing presence of Latino/a voters in politics is representative of the group's growing presence across the United States, making up over 30% of the population in swing or politically significant states such as Texas, Arizona, or California.^[10] It's also worth noting that large migrating populations, such as the increase of Cuban-Americans in Florida, have a strong impact for similar reasons. Community identification proves a strong factor in voter registration, particularly among working Latinas.^[10] Puerto Ricans in Southern states have similar turnout rates, presumably for similar reasons; that said, there does exist quite a bit of variation in numbers across states, in part due to the aforementioned factors.

Among other minority communities in the US, turnout seems to be increased by the presence of a member of their race on the ballot, black voter turnout rose significantly with Obama's two presidential campaigns and then fell back again in 2016.^[11]

Although turn out for Latinos is low, it has been noted that Latinos residing in communities with a large Latino population are more likely to turn out to vote.^[7]

Latino vote influences

There is a significant amount of literature dedicated to analyzing what influences Latino vote choices. One strong determinant has been found to be religion, which is believed to play a role in defining the political attitudes and behaviors of Latino voters. Latinos have long been associated with Catholicism with respect to faith and religious identity^[12] and with the Democratic Party with regard to political allegiance and identity.^[13] Although most Latinos affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party, the Latino National Political Survey, has found a consistent finding that Latinos identify themselves ideologically as moderates and conservatives. Social conservatism usually originates from religion, which oftentimes predicts Latino's opposition to abortion, same-sex marriage, support for the death penalty, and support for traditional gender roles. Religion's ideological role is undeniable in its political influence in both parties. While shared collective identity that is often associated with a particular religion, political beliefs are often a result of community values, rather than solely religious. Notably, in 2006 and 2008, the Democratic party held an advantage in Latino/a voter turnout and results.^[10] During these election cycles, and still to a degree today, the Democratic party appeals to issues such as immigration and healthcare, while the Republican party tends to continue on social issues and religion-based appeal.^{[citation needed]}

Although the Latina vote, in particular, is sometimes seen as a product of social movements in many media outlets, some scholars in the social sciences argue that it is a movement in and of itself born out of historical left-wing advocacy.^[14] For example, LLEGÓ, the National Latina/o Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Organization (1987–present)^[14] remains a leader in Latina activism in the United States. Organizations such as LLEGÓ have had historical impact over the political ideologies of its members, and has greatly influenced political participation over the years within these often overlooked communities. Considering the aforementioned important role played by ethnic and religious identity, these organizations cultivate a sense of collective political pride. In turn, voting turnout is often seen to increase with regards to historical and current members of LLEGÓ and other groups.

Political ads have also been studied to determine how they influence Latino voting behavior. In a study conducted by Abrajano, it was concluded that different political ads influence Latino vote choices depending on how assimilated individuals are to American life.^[15] For Spanish dominated Latinos, political ads that tapped into ethnic identity seemed to be the most influential. On the other hand, for assimilated Latinos, ethnic appeals did have some influence but exposure to more informative policy ads in English or Spanish had a greater impact on these voters' decision to vote.^[15] During political movements in the 1960s and 1970s such as the women's liberation movement and the Chicano movement, Latina females began to unite around ideals similar to those embraced by feminist voter organizations including the Third World Women's Alliance and other Bay Area activist groups.^[16] According to a study performed using the November 2000 CPS, education appeared to hold the greatest influence over Latina voter registration and choice, among income, employment, and homeowner status.^[9] However, this study was conducted across the United States. Keeping this in mind, it is important to reconcile the issues important to singular communities with these overarching themes. For example, considering the growing Latino/a populations in Florida from Puerto Rico, factors of registration and choice will differ greatly between these groups and Latinos/as in other parts of the state.

The Cuban Experience and Voting Pattern

After the Marxist-Leninist socialist Fidel Castro overthrew the Cuban military leader Fulgencio Batista,^[17] he made significant changes throughout the island. Among these changes was the seizure of private property, businesses, and lands without any compensation.^[18]

While Castro made improvements in healthcare, literacy rates, education, and public services in rural areas, he also repressed civil and political rights by shutting down the free press, jailing free thinkers and protesters, and imposing a one-party state.^[19]

From 1959 to 1962, there was a large-scale exodus of Cuban people, known as the "Golden Exile." This was the first wave of migration, primarily consisting of middle and upper-middle-class, well-educated white-collar workers whose belongings were seized.^[20] These experiences have had a lasting socio-psychological impact on Cuban immigrants, instilling a deep fear of socialism that is passed down to future generations.^[18] Therefore, when Republicans highlight anti-socialist messaging, it resonates with this group of people.^[21]

Policies

In the United States, the Latino vote is often associated with immigration issues such as immigration reform, immigration enforcement, and amnesty for undocumented immigrants. However, immigration could be an issue no more important than unemployment or the economy for many Latino American citizens.^[22]

Data from both the 2002 and 1999 National Surveys on Latinos revealed that over 60% percent of Latinos favor a larger government with more government programs, even if this means higher taxes.^[23] A 1992 study indicated that government programs that Latinos are more likely to advocate for are those that focus on issues such as crime control and drug prevention, child care services, environmental protection, science and technology, defense, and programs for refugees and immigrants^[24]

According to the National Exit Poll, in 2012 60% of Latino voters identified the economy as the most important issue the country was facing.^[25] Education is also a constant preoccupation among Latino voters. Latinos emphasize education, mentioning such issues as expanding the number of schools, reducing class sizes, and adding to the cultural sensitivity of teachers and curricula.^[25] Other educational concerns expressed by Latinos include ensuring that children are able to advance to the next educational level. Following the economy and education, health care (18%), the federal budget deficit (11%) and foreign policy (6%), were other concerns among the Latino population.^[25]

2020 election

Latino voters were a crucial part of President Joe Biden's electoral victory in the 2020 presidential election. He won 65% of the Latino vote, and Donald Trump won 32%,^[26] according to Edison Research exit polls. In the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, Latino voters made the difference for Joe Biden. Many Latino voters in Nevada are members of the Culinary Union Local 226 and supported Biden based on right-to-work standards.^[27]

In heavily urbanized northeastern states and California, Biden secured overwhelming majorities among Latino voters, as has long been the case for Democratic presidential candidates.^[28]

However, Latino voters proved that they were not monolithic.^[29] In Florida, Trump earned strong Latino support among Cuban and South American communities in Miami-Dade County and 46% of the overall Latino vote statewide, much higher than his 35% in 2016. This shift occurred due to the anti-socialist messaging of Trump's campaign.^[30]^[31] Still, it’s important to note that in every county outside of Miami-Dade County, Latinos opted to vote for Biden by a 2 to 1 margin. In the end, Biden won the majority of Florida’s Latino electorate.^[32]

Additionally, in heavily Latino South Texas, Biden lost ground compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, especially in rural counties. However, he still carried the Latino vote in the Rio Grande Valley by double digits and 58% statewide.^[33]^[34]

2024 election

Latinos proved to be extremely helpful in Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. Nationwide, according to exit polling from CNN, he won 46% of the Latino vote, a 14-point shift from four years prior and the largest share since exit polling of Latinos began in 1976, surpassing George W. Bush's 44% record in 2004. Much like when Latinos were considered to be crucial in delivering President Joe Biden the White House in 2020, Trump's improvement in several swing states was the difference in winning back several states he lost to Biden, such as Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.^[35]

This shift was most noticeable in Texas and Florida, where Trump widened his electoral margins from 2020. Miami-Dade County, home to the heavily Latino city of Miami, gave 55% of their vote to Trump, the first time this has occurred since 1988. Statewide, he won 58% of Latino voters.^[36] In South Texas, especially the Rio Grande Valley and other counties along the border, the vote shedding by Democrats that began four years prior became much more apparent, as Donald Trump flipped Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, Duval, Starr, Culberson, Maverick, and Willacy County. Each of these counties are vastly majority Latino, some having not voted for a Republican presidential candidate for nearly a century.^[37] For example, Webb County last voted for a Republican for President in 1912, while Maverick and Starr County had not voted for a Republican since 1896 and 1904, respectively. Statewide, Trump received 55% of Texas' Latino vote.

Voting history

Year	Candidate of the plurality	Political party	% of Hispanic vote	Result
1980	Jimmy Carter	Democratic	56%	Lost
1984	Walter Mondale	Democratic	61%	Lost
1988	Michael Dukakis	Democratic	69%	Lost
1992	Bill Clinton	Democratic	61%	Won
1996	Bill Clinton	Democratic	72%	Won
2000	Al Gore	Democratic	62%	Lost
2004	John Kerry	Democratic	58%	Lost
2008	Barack Obama	Democratic	67%	Won
2012	Barack Obama	Democratic	71%	Won
2016	Hillary Clinton	Democratic	65%	Lost
2020	Joe Biden	Democratic	63%	Won
2024	Kamala Harris	Democratic	52%	Lost

References

^ "WCVI - Latino Voter Statistics". wcvi.org.
^ "theamericano.com". theamericano.com.
^ "Mapping the 2020 Latino electorate". Pew Research Center.
^ Charles S. Bullock, and M. V. Hood, "A Mile‐Wide Gap: The Evolution of Hispanic Political Emergence in the Deep South." Social Science Quarterly 87.5 (2006): 1117-1135. online^{[dead link‍]}
^ ^a ^b ^c DeSipio, Louis (2006). Latino Civic and Political Participation. In: National Research Council (US) Panel on Hispanics in the United States. National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-10044-1.
^ Rosenstone, Steven; Hansen, John Mark (2002). Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. Longman. ISBN 978-0321121868.
^ ^a ^b Pantoja, Adrian; Woods, Nathan (1999). "Turning out the Latino Vote in Los Angeles County:, Did Interest Group Efforts Matter?". American Review of Politics. 20: 141–162.
^ Jackson, Robert (2003). "Differential Influences on Latino Electoral Participation". Political Behavior. 25 (4): 339–366. doi:10.1023/b:pobe.0000004062.12215.63. S2CID 144888683.
^ ^a ^b ^c Jackson, Robert (2003). "Differential Influences on Latino Electoral Participation". Political Behavior. 25 (4): 339–366. doi:10.1023/b:pobe.0000004062.12215.63. S2CID 144888683.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Jackson, M. (2011). Priming the Sleeping Giant: The Dynamics of Latino Political Identity and Vote Choice. Political Psychology, 32(4), 691-716. Retrieved February 18, 2021, from JSTOR 41262886
^ "Black voter turnout fell in 2016 US election". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
^ Maldonado, David (1999). Protestantes/Protestants : Hispanic Christianity within mainline traditions. Abingdon Press. pp. 9–18. ISBN 978-0687055098.
^ Kelly, Nathan; Morgan, Jana (2005). "Religion and Latino partisanship in the United States". Political Research Quarterly. 58 (1): 87–95. doi:10.2307/3595598. JSTOR 3595598.
^ ^a ^b Ontiveros, R. J. (2017). Social movements. In D. R. Vargas, L. La Fountain-Stokes, & N. R. Mirabal, Keywords for latina/o studies. New York University Press. Credo Reference: https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/nyupresskls/social_movements/0
^ ^a ^b Arbajano, Marisa (2010). Campaigning to the New American Electorate Advertising to Latino Voters. Stanford University Press. p. 216. ISBN 9780804774703.
^ Cotera, M. E. (2017). Feminisms. In D. R. Vargas, L. La Fountain-Stokes, & N. R. Mirabal, Keywords for latina/o studies. New York University Press. Credo Reference: https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/nyupresskls/feminisms/0
^ "Fidel Castro declares himself a Marxist-Leninist | December 2, 1961". HISTORY. Retrieved 2024-04-25.
^ ^a ^b Jose A. Ortiz, The Illegal Expropriation of Property in Cuba: A Historical and Legal Analysis of the Takings and a Survey of Restitution Schemes for a Post-Socialist Cuba, 22 Loy. L.A. Int'l & Comp. L. Rev. 321 (2000).
^ "What did Fidel Castro do as leader of Cuba? | Britannica". www.britannica.com. Retrieved 2024-04-25.
^ Duany, Jorge (1999-01-01). "Cuban communities in the United States: migration waves, settlement patterns and socioeconomic diversity". Pouvoirs dans la Caraïbe. Revue du CRPLC (in French) (11): 69–103. doi:10.4000/plc.464. ISSN 1279-8657.
^ "Concern about socialism among Hispanic voters is high, Democrat polling firm finds". NBC News. 2021-12-14. Retrieved 2024-04-25.
^ Gutierrez, Jessica Marie (March 12, 2012). "IS RESPECT A MAJOR ISSUE FOR LATINOS: ELECTION 2012 COVERAGE ON THE HISPANIC VOTE".
^ Coffin, Malcolm (2003). "The Latino Vote: Shaping Americas Electoral Future". The Political Quarterly. 74 (2): 214–222. doi:10.1111/1467-923x.00531.
^ De La Garza, Rodolfo; DeSipio, Louis; Garcia, Chris; Garcia, John; Falcon, Angelo (1992). Latino Voices: Mexican, Puerto Rican, And Cuban Perspectives On American Politics. ISBN 978-0813387246.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Latino Voters in the 2012 Election". Pew Research Center. 7 November 2012.
^ "National Results 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
^ "Culinary Union delivered Nevada for Biden/Harris, drove unprecedented turnout with the largest political team statewide". Culinary Union Local 226. 7 November 2020. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
^ Cruz, Jose E.; Bloom, Joel D. "Latino Politics in the Northeast" (PDF). University at Albany, SUNY. Retrieved 2024-11-18.
^ "The Complexities of the 2020 'Latino Vote' Were Overlooked, Again". Time. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
^ "What's behind Trump's gain in Cuban American support?". NBC News. 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
^ Boryga, Andrew; Ariza, Mario; Valdez, Yvonne H. (4 November 2020). "How Trump won big with Latinos in Florida — and then some". sun-sentinel.com. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
^ "Latino voters were decisive in 2020 presidential election". UCLA. Retrieved 2023-03-15.
^ Dobbins, James; Fernandez, Manny (2020-11-07). "In Texas, an Emerging Problem for Democrats on the Border". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-08-08.
^ Gamboa, Suzanne (22 February 2021). "Why Texas Democrats lost the 2020 voter turnout battle, even among Latinos". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved 2023-03-15.
^ "Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2024-11-26.
^ "Record voter gains among Latinos for Trump mainly boiled down to their top issue — the economy". NBC News. 2024-11-06. Retrieved 2024-11-26.
^ "Trump carries all Rio Grande Valley border counties". FOX40. 2024-11-07. Retrieved 2024-11-26.