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2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

(Redirected from United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2016)

For related races, see 2016 United States Senate elections.

The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.

2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
Turnout67.34%
 
Nominee Ron Johnson Russ Feingold
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,479,471 1,380,335
Percentage 50.17% 46.81%
Johnson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Feingold:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No vote
U.S. senator before election

Ron Johnson
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Ron Johnson
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm elections, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992.[1] Johnson's victory was considered an upset as most polling had Feingold in the lead, coinciding with Donald Trump's own surprise victory in the state's presidential contest. Feingold managed to win six counties that voted for Donald Trump; Columbia, Crawford, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk and Vernon.[2]

Background

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In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 but was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.[3]

In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded.[4] Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again."[5] On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat.[6] Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.[7]

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state.[8][9][10][11][12] Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability.[11] A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.[13]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa[6]
  • Scott Harbach, perennial candidate

Declined

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Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Russ Feingold 303,282 90.14%
Democratic Scott Harbach 33,185 9.86%
Total votes 336,467 100.00%

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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General election

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Candidates

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Debates

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Dates Location Johnson Feingold Link
October 14, 2016 Green Bay, Wisconsin Participant Participant [20]
October 18, 2016 Milwaukee, Wisconsin Participant Participant Full debate[21]

Endorsements

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Ron Johnson (R)

Presidents

State Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Russ Feingold (D)

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Wisconsin State Senators

Labor unions

Organizations

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[53] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[55] Tilt D (flip) November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[56] Lean D (flip) November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[57] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Phil
Anderson (L) 		Other /
Neither 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[58] November 1–7, 2016 2,246 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey[59] October 31–November 6, 2016 1,943 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey[60] October 28–November 3, 2016 1,568 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs[61] November 1–2, 2016 1,129 ± 2.9% 46% 49% — — 5%
SurveyMonkey[62] October 27–November 2, 2016 1,271 ± 4.6% 48% 48% — — 4%
Public Policy Polling[63] October 31–November 1, 2016 891 ± 3.3% 44% 49% — — 7%
Loras College[64] October 31–November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% — 6%
SurveyMonkey[65] October 26–November 1, 2016 1,103 ± 4.6% 50% 48% — — 2%
Marquette University[66] October 26–31, 2016 1,190 LV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 3% 2% 3%
1,401 RV ± 3.3% 42% 43% 5% 3% 5%
SurveyMonkey[67] October 25–31, 2016 1,195 ± 4.6% 49% 49% — — 2%
Emerson College[68] October 27–28, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 44% 49% — 4% 3%
Let America Work[69]^ October 18–20, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 48% 2% — 4%
Club for Growth[70]^ October 18–20, 2016 400 ± 4.2% 42% 45% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling[71] October 18–19, 2016 804 ± 3.5% 41% 47% — — 12%
Monmouth University[72] October 15–18, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 44% 52% 2% — 2%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College[73] October 13–16, 2016 664 ± 3.8% 40% 52% 0% 3% 5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[74] October 8–16, 2016 1,076 ± 0.5% 46% 51% — — 3%
Google Consumer Surveys[75] October 12–14, 2016 551 ± 4.2% 39% 58% — — 3%
Marquette University[76] October 6–9, 2016 839 LV ± 3.9% 44% 46% 4% 1% 4%
46% 48% — 1% 4%
1,000 RV ± 3.7% 42% 44% 6% 1% 6%
44% 47% — 2% 5%
CBS News/YouGov[77] October 5–7, 2016 993 ± 4.3% 42% 45% — — 13%
Loras College[78] October 4–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% — 3% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[79] October 4, 2016 1,102 ± 3.0% 41% 53% — — 6%
Emerson College[80] September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 42% 52% — 3% 4%
Marquette University[81] September 15–18, 2016 642 LV ± 4.8% 39% 44% 7% — 10%
41% 47% — — 8%
802 RV ± 4.4% 37% 44% 8% — 10%
40% 46% — — 11%
Monmouth University[82] August 27–30, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 41% 54% 2% — 3%
Public Policy Polling[83] August 26–27, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 42% 49% — — 9%
Marquette University[81] August 25–28, 2016 650 LV ± 5.0% 42% 45% 6% — 7%
45% 48% — — 7%
803 RV ± 4.5% 38% 42% 8% — 12%
42% 46% — — 12%
Global Strategy Group[84] August 25, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 55% — — 8%
Let America Work[85]^ August 21–22, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 50% — — 3%
Marquette University[86] August 4–7, 2016 683 LV ± 5.0% 39% 50% 7% — 4%
42% 53% — — 6%
805 RV ± 4.5% 38% 47% 7% — 8%
43% 49% — — 8%
Let America Work[85]^ July 30–August 1, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 50% — — 6%
Global Strategy Group[84] July 20, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 41% 52% — — 7%
Marquette University[87] July 7–10, 2016 665 LV ± 4.5% 40% 46% 7% — 7%
44% 49% — — 7%
801 RV ± 4.1% 38% 45% 8% — 9%
41% 48% — — 11%
Public Policy Polling[88] June 22–23, 2016 843 ± 3.4% 37% 50% — — 13%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[89] June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 45% 46% — — 9%
Marquette University[90] June 9–12, 2016 666 LV ± 4.9% 42% 51% — — 7%
800 RV ± 4.4% 41% 45% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling[91] June 8–9, 2016 853 ± 3.4% 41% 51% — — 8%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College[92] April 12–15, 2016 616 ± 4.0% 41% 51% — — 6%
Emerson College[93] March 30–April 3, 2016 1,198 ± 2.8% 44% 48% — 8% —
Public Policy Polling[94] March 28–29, 2016 1,397 ± 2.6% 39% 46% — — 15%
Loras College[95] March 28–29, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 48% — 1% 12%
Marquette University[96] March 24–28, 2016 957 LV ± 4.1% 45% 48% — — 7%
1,405 RV ± 3.3% 42% 47% — — 11%
Marquette University[97] February 18–21, 2016 802 RV ± 4.5% 37% 49% — — 14%
Marquette University[98] January 21–24, 2016 806 RV ± 4.0% 37% 50% — — 13%
Let America Work[99][a]^ November 16–18, 2015 900 ± 3.3% 44% 45% — — 11%
Marquette University[100] November 12–15, 2015 803 RV ± 4.2% 38% 49% — — 13%
Democracy Corps[101] October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 46% 51% — — 3%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College[102] October 14–17, 2015 603 ± 4.0% 40% 51% — 2% 7%
Marquette University[103] September 24–28, 2015 803 RV ± 4.1% 36% 50% — 7% 7%
End Citizens United[104] September 10–14, 2015 775 ± 3.6% 39% 47% — — 14%
Marquette University[105] August 13–16, 2015 802 RV ± 3.5% 42% 47% — — 12%
Marquette University[106] April 7–10, 2015 803 RV ± 3.5% 38% 54% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling[107] March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 41% 50% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling[108] April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 47% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling[109] September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 42% 49% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling[110] February 21–24, 2013 807 ± 2.3% 42% 52% — — 6%

^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.

Hypothetical polling

with Mary Burke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Mary
Burke (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[107] March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Mark Pocan

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Mark
Pocan (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[107] March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 43% 36% 20%

with Gwen Moore

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Gwen
Moore (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[107] March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 45% 37% — 18%

with Ron Kind

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[107] March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 43% 37% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[108] April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 39% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[109] September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% 40% — 17%

Results

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2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin[111]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ron Johnson (incumbent) 1,479,471 50.17% −1.69%
Democratic Russ Feingold 1,380,335 46.81% −0.21%
Libertarian Phil Anderson 87,531 2.97% N/A
Write-in 1,404 0.05% +0.01%
Total votes 2,948,741 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[112]

District Johnson Feingold Representative
1st 56% 42% Paul Ryan
2nd 30% 67% Mark Pocan
3rd 49% 47% Ron Kind
4th 26% 71% Gwen Moore
5th 63% 35% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 58% 38% Glenn Grothman
7th 57% 40% Sean Duffy
8th 59% 38% Reid Ribble
Mike Gallagher

Notes

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  1. ^ Archived December 8, 2015, at the Wayback Machine

References

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  1. ^ "Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race".
  2. ^ "Wisconsin Elections Commission" (PDF). elections.wi.gov. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  3. ^ "Election 2010 Wisconsin Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2011. Retrieved February 27, 2011.
  4. ^ Bivins, Larry (March 11, 2013). "Wis. Sen. Johnson begins re-election bid". USA Today. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  5. ^ Catalina Camia (November 19, 2014). "Johnson won't self-finance 2016 Senate race". Green Bay Press Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2014.
  6. ^ a b Bauer, Scott (May 14, 2015). "Wisconsin's Feingold to Run for US Senate". ABC News. Associated Press.
  7. ^ "Wisconsin 2016 Senate Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  8. ^ "Why Republicans' Senate majority could be very short-lived". The Washington Post. November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  9. ^ "Here's The Democratic Route Back To Senate Control In 2016". The Huffington Post. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  10. ^ Weigel, David (July 3, 2014). "The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016". Slate. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  11. ^ a b "The 10 states that could decide the next Senate". Politico. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  12. ^ "Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections". The New York Times. April 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  13. ^ "Marquette Law School Poll, March 20-23, 2014" (PDF). Marquette University Law School. March 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
  14. ^ Mulvany, Lydia (March 11, 2013). "Sen. Ron Johnson says he'll seek re-election in 2016". JS Online. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  15. ^ "Mary Burke says she won't run for statewide office again". Wisconsin State Journal. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
  16. ^ a b Larson, Chris (May 14, 2015). "Russ Feingold for Wisconsin - count me in!". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  17. ^ a b Levinson, Alexis (December 12, 2014). "Wisconsin Democrat: Russ Feingold Would Clear Primary". Roll Call. Archived from the original on June 1, 2015. Retrieved June 2, 2015.
  18. ^ Pocan, Mark (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  19. ^ "Phil Anderson declares 2016 candidacy for US Senate in Wisconsin". Libertarian Party. November 19, 2015. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  20. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  21. ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
  22. ^ Tokars, Mike (June 20, 2016). "GOP Calls In The Big Gun: George W. Bush is on the campaign trail". The National Memo. Retrieved June 21, 2016.
  23. ^ Walker, Scott (October 15, 2016). "If you think Obamacare is a success, then vote for Sen. Feingold. If not, vote for Ron Johnson. #WISen". Twitter. Retrieved October 15, 2016.
  24. ^ "Lindsey Graham Campaigns for Ron Johnson in Wisconsin". October 27, 2016.
  25. ^ Crowe, Kevin (November 5, 2016). "McCain backs Johnson in web ad". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 6, 2016.
  26. ^ "Paul Ryan endorses Ron Johnson at Burlington Grassroots rally". ronjohnsonforsenate.com. May 5, 2016. Retrieved September 23, 2016.
  27. ^ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  28. ^ Behr, Madeleine (December 7, 2015). "Johnson rips Obama for 'lack of leadership'". The Post-Crescent. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  29. ^ Sherfinski, David (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  30. ^ "National Federation of Independent Business endorses Ron Johnson". ronjohnsonforsenate.com. April 23, 2016. Archived from the original on June 10, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  31. ^ "Vote Ron Johnson for U.S. Senate: A Rated and Endorsed by NRA-PVF". nrapvf.org. Archived from the original on October 18, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  32. ^ Glauber, Bill (March 23, 2016). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Johnson in Senate race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 27, 2016.
  33. ^ "ACU Endorses Ron Johnson". American Conservative Union.
  34. ^ a b Sommerhauser, Mark (March 18, 2016). "Barack Obama, Joe Biden endorse Russ Feingold". Wisconsin State Journal. Retrieved March 20, 2016.
  35. ^ Carney, Jordain (January 27, 2016). "Ex-Pentagon chief donates to Feingold". The Hill. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  36. ^ Tammy Baldwin (May 18, 2015). "Have you heard? My good friend Russ Feingold is running for Senate! He's a champion of Wisconsin's progressive values, and was a friend to me in my race in 2012. Let's help him get off to a running start -- contribute to his campaign today! - TB". Facebook. Retrieved May 18, 2015.
  37. ^ Terkel, Amanda (May 26, 2016). "Bernie Sanders fundraising for Russ Feingold". The Huffington Post. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  38. ^ a b Easley, Jonathan (May 14, 2015). "Russ Feingold running for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  39. ^ Opoien, Jessie (September 27, 2015). "Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold talk student debt at UW-Madison". The Capital Times. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  40. ^ Mark Pocan (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  41. ^ a b c d Glauber, Bill (February 16, 2016). "Fire fighter union endorses Russ Feingold". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  42. ^ a b Glauber, Bill (February 8, 2016). "WEAC, AFT-Wisconsin endorse Russ Feingold". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  43. ^ Delong, Katie (October 5, 2016). "Russ Feingold endorsed by IBEW; Ron Johnson calls him a "career politician with little to show for it"". WITI. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  44. ^ Behr, Madeleine (August 28, 2015). "Steelworkers endorse Feingold". The Post-Crescent. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  45. ^ "Blue America Endorses Russ Feingold".
  46. ^ McCarter, Joan (September 16, 2015). "Let's take Wisconsin and the Senate back: Daily Kos endorses Russ Feingold". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  47. ^ Friedenbach, Laura (October 7, 2016). "Every Voice Endorses Russ Feingold for Senate". Every Voice. Archived from the original on October 18, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  48. ^ Staff, HRC (September 30, 2016). "HRC Endorses Russ Feingold of Wisconsin for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. Archived from the original on October 1, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  49. ^ a b Cama, Timothy (February 10, 2016). "Two green groups back Feingold in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  50. ^ Stewart, Brian (May 15, 2015). "MoveOn Members' First 2016 Endorsement: Russ Feingold". MoveOn.org. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  51. ^ a b Opoien, Jessie (February 9, 2016). "Planned Parenthood, NOW endorse Russ Feingold in Senate race". The Capital Times. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  52. ^ Easley, Cameron (September 20, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' Group Endorses Deborah Ross". Morning Consult. Archived from the original on October 18, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  53. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  54. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  55. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  56. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  57. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  58. ^ SurveyMonkey
  59. ^ SurveyMonkey
  60. ^ SurveyMonkey
  61. ^ Clarity Campaign Labs
  62. ^ SurveyMonkey
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ Loras College
  65. ^ SurveyMonkey
  66. ^ Marquette University
  67. ^ SurveyMonkey
  68. ^ Emerson College
  69. ^ Let America Work
  70. ^ Club for Growth
  71. ^ Public Policy Polling
  72. ^ Monmouth University
  73. ^ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  74. ^ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived September 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  75. ^ Google Consumer Surveys
  76. ^ Marquette University
  77. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  78. ^ Loras College
  79. ^ Breitbart/Gravis Marketing
  80. ^ Emerson College
  81. ^ a b Marquette University
  82. ^ Monmouth University
  83. ^ Public Policy Polling
  84. ^ a b Global Strategy Group
  85. ^ a b Let America Work
  86. ^ Marquette University
  87. ^ Marquette University
  88. ^ Public Policy Polling
  89. ^ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  90. ^ Marquette University
  91. ^ Public Policy Polling
  92. ^ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  93. ^ Emerson College
  94. ^ Public Policy Polling
  95. ^ Loras College
  96. ^ Marquette University
  97. ^ Marquette University
  98. ^ Marquette University
  99. ^ Let America Work Archived December 8, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  100. ^ Marquette University
  101. ^ Democracy Corps Archived February 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  102. ^ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  103. ^ Marquette University
  104. ^ End Citizens United
  105. ^ Marquette University
  106. ^ Marquette University
  107. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  108. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  109. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  110. ^ Public Policy Polling
  111. ^ "2016 General Election" (PDF). State of Wisconsin. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 14, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  112. ^ "Wisconsin Elections Results | Wisconsin Elections Commission". Archived from the original on April 25, 2018. Retrieved April 29, 2018.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)

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