Papers by Stephen Johnson
Enhancing CBRNE Safety & Security: Proceedings of the SICC 2017 Conference, 2018
The formation of Cranfield University’s Counterterrorism Centre of Excellence was announced in la... more The formation of Cranfield University’s Counterterrorism Centre of Excellence was announced in late summer 2017. It has been established in conjunction with Pool Re, a mutual reinsurer which underwrites over £2 trillion of exposure to terrorism risk in the UK. The centre will provide thought leadership in catastrophic and unconventional terrorism loss assessment and mitigation so as to improve the UK’s economic resilience.
We introduce the reinsurance industry for a technical audience to explain the rationale for the Counterterrorism Centre of Excellence. The centre’s aims and some results from preliminary simulations on explosive blast in a complex city centre performed in collaboration with reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter are presented. The prospects for physics-based simulation, for terrorist insurance loss estimation and for encouraging mitigation in reinsurance are outlined.
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An exploration of the explosive detection challenges in Afghanistan.
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Modelling risk exposure for terrorism insurance products is an extremely challenging area subject... more Modelling risk exposure for terrorism insurance products is an extremely challenging area subject to regulation and potential for significant loss. It is generally believed that there is insufficient data for quantitative models, leaving a reliance on scenarios and probable maximal loss. Government products and backing have actually stalled development of better models, by removing motivation to better understand the risk. Key issues within modelling are: definitions & wording of products, targets, attack types, impacts, frequencies, repeat attacks, CBRN/WMD and risk accumulation. As an anthropogenic threat, composed of groups with intents and characteristics which do not remain constant it is easy to rapidly give up on modelling as uneconomic or even unachievable. Alternatively some models obsess over small aspects of the terrorist attack cycle generating complex algorithms to model terrorist target selection. This paper advocates a third way in which quantitative modelling forms t...
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Many of the models used to examine aspects of CBRNE threats were designed for specific purposes o... more Many of the models used to examine aspects of CBRNE threats were designed for specific purposes other than risk assessment. When brought together they are an imperfect match to the challenges of policy planning and emergency and disaster management. This paper will explore the existing models and shortfalls and make a case for a more integrated model written from the perspective of emergency management.
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Papers by Stephen Johnson
We introduce the reinsurance industry for a technical audience to explain the rationale for the Counterterrorism Centre of Excellence. The centre’s aims and some results from preliminary simulations on explosive blast in a complex city centre performed in collaboration with reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter are presented. The prospects for physics-based simulation, for terrorist insurance loss estimation and for encouraging mitigation in reinsurance are outlined.
We introduce the reinsurance industry for a technical audience to explain the rationale for the Counterterrorism Centre of Excellence. The centre’s aims and some results from preliminary simulations on explosive blast in a complex city centre performed in collaboration with reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter are presented. The prospects for physics-based simulation, for terrorist insurance loss estimation and for encouraging mitigation in reinsurance are outlined.