David Passig
Prof. David Passig is a futurist, lecturer, consultant and best-selling author who specializes in technological, social and educational futures.
Prof. Passig is Associate Professor at Bar-Ilan University (BIU), Ramat-Gan, Israel, where he teaches at the Graduate School of Education. His courses include: Systems Theories, Future Methodologies, and Technological, Social and Educational Futures. He heads BIU's Graduate Program in Communication Technologies as well as BIU's Virtual Reality Laboratory.
Prof. Passig has consulted for many corporations as well as public and private sector institutes. He is the chair in one of his own FutureCode Ltd., which develops and employs tool kits of computerized Futures methods in decision making processes. He has consulted in Israel, Asia, Europe and North America. He has served as the chief advisor to the Commissioner for Future Generations in the Israeli Knesset. Among his many activities, he is a member of the Israeli National Council for R&D.
Prof. Passig's bestseller books are The Future Code and 2048. Each has received Israel's coveted Gold Book Award. His most recent book, Forcognito – The Future Mind, was published in Jan. 2013 and is at the top of the Israeli best seller list. www.thefuturecode.com
Prof. Passig holds a Ph.D. degree in Future Studies from the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Address: School of Ed
Bar-Ilan U
Ramat Gan 52900
Israel
Prof. Passig is Associate Professor at Bar-Ilan University (BIU), Ramat-Gan, Israel, where he teaches at the Graduate School of Education. His courses include: Systems Theories, Future Methodologies, and Technological, Social and Educational Futures. He heads BIU's Graduate Program in Communication Technologies as well as BIU's Virtual Reality Laboratory.
Prof. Passig has consulted for many corporations as well as public and private sector institutes. He is the chair in one of his own FutureCode Ltd., which develops and employs tool kits of computerized Futures methods in decision making processes. He has consulted in Israel, Asia, Europe and North America. He has served as the chief advisor to the Commissioner for Future Generations in the Israeli Knesset. Among his many activities, he is a member of the Israeli National Council for R&D.
Prof. Passig's bestseller books are The Future Code and 2048. Each has received Israel's coveted Gold Book Award. His most recent book, Forcognito – The Future Mind, was published in Jan. 2013 and is at the top of the Israeli best seller list. www.thefuturecode.com
Prof. Passig holds a Ph.D. degree in Future Studies from the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Address: School of Ed
Bar-Ilan U
Ramat Gan 52900
Israel
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בפשטות ובבהירות רבה מסכם פרופ' פסיג עבור הקורא את המחקרים החדשים המתחקים אחר המנגנונים הנוירופיזיולוגיים המחוללים חשיבת-עתיד ותהליך קבלת החלטות במוחם של בעלי חיים ובני אנוש. כמו כן שוטח פרופ' פסיג את טענתו שהמוח כבר מוכן לשלב האבולוציוני הבא שלו, שלב אשר בו, בעזרת טכנולוגיות שהוא עצמו יפתח, תקבל חשיבת-העתיד ממד חדש. יכולת חדשה זו מכונה בפיו "פורקוגניטו". הוא מדגים כיצד אפשר בעזרתה לחזות עתידים אישיים ולטפל באחד האתגרים הקשים העומדים בפני החברה האנושית והאדם הפרטי במאה ה-21 – מוסד הגמלאות והחיסכון הפנסיוני. אין טענה נגד חקר העתיד שאינה מופרכת בספר, ומחקרים מרתקים הנערכים במעבדה למציאות מדומה באוניברסיטת בר-אילן, המוכיחים שאפשר לשפר רבדים שונים באינטליגנציה, גם של אלה אשר לא שפר גורלם, נחשפים כאן. יחידים, ארגונים ומנהלים המעוניינים למדוד את יכולתם לחשוב-עתיד בעזרת כלי הערכה חדשים, ומוכנים לעשות צעדים מעשיים כדי לשפרה ולפתחה, ימצאו בספר הזה חומר מעשי רב.
Entire libraries have been written on these historical enigmas in attempting to understand what happened post factum. However, only a few have attempted to analyze their vectors in the 21st century. Prof. Passig engages in these vectors with great courage and simple language. He delves into these issues in order to identify the major confrontations of the first half of the 21st century and zooms in to identify how these geopolitical trends would be reflected in the Middle East and in the Israeli-Arab conflict.
In his book, Passig presents a theory that runs counter to conventional wisdom arguing that it is not the economy of a state, nor its values, its ethnic fabric, or its religion that marks the future of its national security. It is, primarily, the alignment of its land that represents its geography and its borders that shape its future. These alignments mold its perception of power and drive its population toward confrontations that would shape their future. They are the primary factors that define their history for best and worst.
In the 21st century, according to the geographical theory at the heart of this book, humans and their leaders will be driven by a great paralyzing force of territorial, archaic fear. With this theory, Passig deduces that two global confrontations are developing in the background, which will be reflected in the Israeli-Arab front as well: One is a confrontation between the US and Russia circa 2020 and the second between the US and Turkey circa 2050. Passig assesses that proceeding with great caution in this global geopolitical tangle, Israel could turn the table in its favor and would be able to sign a peace treaty with most of its surrounding Arab neighbors by 2050.
Many have tried to do so but from a subjective perspective.
This book, however, employs a range of valid Futures' methodologies to describe Israeli trends in four future subject areas: economic situation, social life, national security and national identity.
The book describes worldwide driving forces and their impact on local trends in a variety of time frames—from 10 to 50 years into the future.
Part 1
The first part of the book is an introduction to Futures Thinking and methodologies (50 pages).
In this part I am organizing all the different future methodologies developed to date in four categories:
1. methodologies that aim to predict probable trends (with 60-70 percent validity),
2. methodologies that aim to predict possible trends (with 40-50 percent validity),
3. methodologies that aim to predict wild card (extreme) trends (with 20-30 percent validity) and
4. methodologies that aim to assist in generating preferable futures.
In this part, I am briefly describing the philosophy behind each category and give a host of examples of predictions drafted with a variety of methodologies that correspond to each category.
The other four parts are actually 16 predictions in four subject areas: future economic situation, social life, national security and national identity.
Part 2-5
In part 2 of the book 4 probable scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
In part 3 of the book 4 possible scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
In part 4 of the book 4 wild cards scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
In part 5 of the book 4 preferable scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
Each scenario is built in the following format:
1. Methodology (pros and cons as well as validity),
2. Prediction based on data analysis,
3. Recommendations how to avoid or strengthen trends deriving from the prediction
Trends
Here are highlights of the different trends in the four categories. Some of the trends have started folding after the book was published*:
Probable scenarios
The Israeli leaders of the 2nd and 3rd decades of the 21st century will be the great reformers of the Israeli society. They will be driven by a great guilt that their parents almost brought down social, political and ecological systems.
Based on the cycles of wars as evolved in the last couple millennium, Israel will be part of a war by 2020 which will define its history of the 21st century. This war could be a decisive battle with its neighbors.
The second decade of the 21st century will be very promising to the Israeli economy. While most of the world will be in a deep recession from the year 2008-2020 Israel could become by 2020 part of the economic leading 15 nations*.
The solidarity among the various Israeli sub-groups will be dismantled by 2030 and a light form of a civil war would occur.
Possible scenarios
Many of the nation state's social networks could collapse by 2020. Instead local and communal institutes will take over many of their national missions*.
Terrorists worldwide are organized as Complex Adaptive Systems. As such they could win their battle against democracies. In order to avoid this possibility, democracies would need to make some very difficult moral issues.
Future industries would be of high-science nature. For that matter higher education needs a revamped strategy.
If Israel would transfer its democracy from a representative to an agreed upon democracy, the Lebanonization of the country could be much more devastating than the one occurring in Lebanon.
Wild cards scenarios
Violence and street brawls between citizens of well established and successful cities and failing cities might occur.
In most of the nations surrounding Israel an accelerating process of social and national decay is underway. A flow of masses might storm the borders of Israel and no peace treaty will hold the collapse of the borders.
A group of terrorists might detonate a small nuclear bomb in one of the US cities. The US might be persuaded to cut its strategic ties with Israel in response to the outcry of various local and international groups.
By 2020 the price of an oil barrel might reach $500. In that case, the Israeli society will deteriorate to lower levels of complexity which might cause the Israeli elites to flee the country.
A strong anti-religious movement might rise to challenge the religiosity of the state and succeed in separating the two.
Preferable scenarios
Decision makers in Israel don't distinguish between routine security concept and a preferred one. This could be a reason for a major security failure. Israel needs a preferred security vision.
The shortcomings of capitalism will begin taking hold by the end of the first decade of the 21st century. Israel could contribute significant reforms to the foundations of the system and gain praise worldwide. Its millennial long literature contains appropriate philosophies for necessary revisions*.
Zionism of the 20th century has probably exhausted itself. Israel would greatly benefit from developing a collective covenant that will lead it to greater achievements in the 21st century.
The century long dispute with Arab neighbors might come to its resolution when a renewed national covenant mission will be solidified and accepted by the majority of the Israeli citizens. This is the challenge of the Israeli society in the first half of the 21st century.
בפשטות ובבהירות רבה מסכם פרופ' פסיג עבור הקורא את המחקרים החדשים המתחקים אחר המנגנונים הנוירופיזיולוגיים המחוללים חשיבת-עתיד ותהליך קבלת החלטות במוחם של בעלי חיים ובני אנוש. כמו כן שוטח פרופ' פסיג את טענתו שהמוח כבר מוכן לשלב האבולוציוני הבא שלו, שלב אשר בו, בעזרת טכנולוגיות שהוא עצמו יפתח, תקבל חשיבת-העתיד ממד חדש. יכולת חדשה זו מכונה בפיו "פורקוגניטו". הוא מדגים כיצד אפשר בעזרתה לחזות עתידים אישיים ולטפל באחד האתגרים הקשים העומדים בפני החברה האנושית והאדם הפרטי במאה ה-21 – מוסד הגמלאות והחיסכון הפנסיוני. אין טענה נגד חקר העתיד שאינה מופרכת בספר, ומחקרים מרתקים הנערכים במעבדה למציאות מדומה באוניברסיטת בר-אילן, המוכיחים שאפשר לשפר רבדים שונים באינטליגנציה, גם של אלה אשר לא שפר גורלם, נחשפים כאן. יחידים, ארגונים ומנהלים המעוניינים למדוד את יכולתם לחשוב-עתיד בעזרת כלי הערכה חדשים, ומוכנים לעשות צעדים מעשיים כדי לשפרה ולפתחה, ימצאו בספר הזה חומר מעשי רב.
Entire libraries have been written on these historical enigmas in attempting to understand what happened post factum. However, only a few have attempted to analyze their vectors in the 21st century. Prof. Passig engages in these vectors with great courage and simple language. He delves into these issues in order to identify the major confrontations of the first half of the 21st century and zooms in to identify how these geopolitical trends would be reflected in the Middle East and in the Israeli-Arab conflict.
In his book, Passig presents a theory that runs counter to conventional wisdom arguing that it is not the economy of a state, nor its values, its ethnic fabric, or its religion that marks the future of its national security. It is, primarily, the alignment of its land that represents its geography and its borders that shape its future. These alignments mold its perception of power and drive its population toward confrontations that would shape their future. They are the primary factors that define their history for best and worst.
In the 21st century, according to the geographical theory at the heart of this book, humans and their leaders will be driven by a great paralyzing force of territorial, archaic fear. With this theory, Passig deduces that two global confrontations are developing in the background, which will be reflected in the Israeli-Arab front as well: One is a confrontation between the US and Russia circa 2020 and the second between the US and Turkey circa 2050. Passig assesses that proceeding with great caution in this global geopolitical tangle, Israel could turn the table in its favor and would be able to sign a peace treaty with most of its surrounding Arab neighbors by 2050.
Many have tried to do so but from a subjective perspective.
This book, however, employs a range of valid Futures' methodologies to describe Israeli trends in four future subject areas: economic situation, social life, national security and national identity.
The book describes worldwide driving forces and their impact on local trends in a variety of time frames—from 10 to 50 years into the future.
Part 1
The first part of the book is an introduction to Futures Thinking and methodologies (50 pages).
In this part I am organizing all the different future methodologies developed to date in four categories:
1. methodologies that aim to predict probable trends (with 60-70 percent validity),
2. methodologies that aim to predict possible trends (with 40-50 percent validity),
3. methodologies that aim to predict wild card (extreme) trends (with 20-30 percent validity) and
4. methodologies that aim to assist in generating preferable futures.
In this part, I am briefly describing the philosophy behind each category and give a host of examples of predictions drafted with a variety of methodologies that correspond to each category.
The other four parts are actually 16 predictions in four subject areas: future economic situation, social life, national security and national identity.
Part 2-5
In part 2 of the book 4 probable scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
In part 3 of the book 4 possible scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
In part 4 of the book 4 wild cards scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
In part 5 of the book 4 preferable scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).
Each scenario is built in the following format:
1. Methodology (pros and cons as well as validity),
2. Prediction based on data analysis,
3. Recommendations how to avoid or strengthen trends deriving from the prediction
Trends
Here are highlights of the different trends in the four categories. Some of the trends have started folding after the book was published*:
Probable scenarios
The Israeli leaders of the 2nd and 3rd decades of the 21st century will be the great reformers of the Israeli society. They will be driven by a great guilt that their parents almost brought down social, political and ecological systems.
Based on the cycles of wars as evolved in the last couple millennium, Israel will be part of a war by 2020 which will define its history of the 21st century. This war could be a decisive battle with its neighbors.
The second decade of the 21st century will be very promising to the Israeli economy. While most of the world will be in a deep recession from the year 2008-2020 Israel could become by 2020 part of the economic leading 15 nations*.
The solidarity among the various Israeli sub-groups will be dismantled by 2030 and a light form of a civil war would occur.
Possible scenarios
Many of the nation state's social networks could collapse by 2020. Instead local and communal institutes will take over many of their national missions*.
Terrorists worldwide are organized as Complex Adaptive Systems. As such they could win their battle against democracies. In order to avoid this possibility, democracies would need to make some very difficult moral issues.
Future industries would be of high-science nature. For that matter higher education needs a revamped strategy.
If Israel would transfer its democracy from a representative to an agreed upon democracy, the Lebanonization of the country could be much more devastating than the one occurring in Lebanon.
Wild cards scenarios
Violence and street brawls between citizens of well established and successful cities and failing cities might occur.
In most of the nations surrounding Israel an accelerating process of social and national decay is underway. A flow of masses might storm the borders of Israel and no peace treaty will hold the collapse of the borders.
A group of terrorists might detonate a small nuclear bomb in one of the US cities. The US might be persuaded to cut its strategic ties with Israel in response to the outcry of various local and international groups.
By 2020 the price of an oil barrel might reach $500. In that case, the Israeli society will deteriorate to lower levels of complexity which might cause the Israeli elites to flee the country.
A strong anti-religious movement might rise to challenge the religiosity of the state and succeed in separating the two.
Preferable scenarios
Decision makers in Israel don't distinguish between routine security concept and a preferred one. This could be a reason for a major security failure. Israel needs a preferred security vision.
The shortcomings of capitalism will begin taking hold by the end of the first decade of the 21st century. Israel could contribute significant reforms to the foundations of the system and gain praise worldwide. Its millennial long literature contains appropriate philosophies for necessary revisions*.
Zionism of the 20th century has probably exhausted itself. Israel would greatly benefit from developing a collective covenant that will lead it to greater achievements in the 21st century.
The century long dispute with Arab neighbors might come to its resolution when a renewed national covenant mission will be solidified and accepted by the majority of the Israeli citizens. This is the challenge of the Israeli society in the first half of the 21st century.