In July, Timorese voters will go to the polls for the second time this year to elect the country'... more In July, Timorese voters will go to the polls for the second time this year to elect the country's parliament. The recent presidential election, held on March 20, witnessed a clear victory by former parliament chief Francisco " Lú-Olo " Guterres, a candidate strongly backed by former resistance leader Xanana Gusmão. The result prolonged the debate that the country's leadership is still largely personality-driven, as it continues to be dominated by high-profile resistance leaders. In the parliamentary elections, to be held on July 22, 21 political parties are set to contest 65 seats in the national parliament. This election is particularly significant, as it will again test the strength of the new coalition of the two largest political parties in Timor-Leste the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (FRETILIN) and the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) that was formed in early 2015. This time around, the national mood is slightly different compared to previous elections. Unlike previous elections, where peace and security dominated the agenda, now, the most important policy issue may very well be the most important problem facing the country today: the economy. As recent polls conducted by the Asia Foundation (AF) and the International Republic Institute (IRI) indicated, the percentage of Timorese believing that the country is moving in the right direction is decreasing. The 2016 Tatoli! Public Opinion Poll by the AF showed that " Fewer people in 2016 feel that the country is going in the Right Direction versus the Wrong Direction than in 2014. In 2016 only 58 percent of respondents felt that the country is going in the right direction (compared to 73 percent in 2014); conversely 32 percent of respondents felt the country is going in the wrong direction (up from 25 percent in 2014). " Meanwhile, the IRI survey indicated that there has been a decrease of 15 percent, from 49 percent to 34 percent, in Timorese who think that things are going in the right direction for the country. At the institutional level, Timor-Leste's democratic institutions have been under constant criticism in recent times. The " national unity " government formed by the two major political forces – the CNRT and FRETILIN – from the government's point of view is a necessary pact to secure peace and stability in the long term. But, at the same time, one of the practical implications of such a move is the clear absence of a strong opposition. This is seen by many critics as a threat toward Timor-Leste's democratic institutions. The political context for the upcoming parliamentary election is interesting. The issue of sustainable economy is increasingly gaining attention from the Timorese. The AF poll showed that 32 percent of the respondents viewed economic issues, including diversifying Timor-Leste's economy, as the top priority in the country. The economy issue is not new, but it has been a persistent issue and that will continue to pose a challenge for whoever forms the next government. As one of the most oil-dependent countries in the world, one persistent discussion in Timor-Leste is how to avoid the resource curse. Several policies have been put in place to avoid the paradox of plenty, with the main intention being to use oil revenues as the basis to finance other developmental needs. All major parties are committed to tackling this issue. However, after 15 years of
There are numerous challenges that Timor-Leste is facing that people often talk about around the ... more There are numerous challenges that Timor-Leste is facing that people often talk about around the country and widely acknowledged across different spectrum of society. These challenges are not unique for Timor-Leste. However, when it is played down in Timor’s context, they are not as simple as its appear on the surface. It becomes more complicated. These are not the result of solely government’s lacking of coherent and integrated policy, or an already failed-state. These are the product of interactions of various factors and actors in the society. This article takes a look at two issues: institutional issue and petroleum dependency. Rather than viewing it as a product of a failed-state, these are challenges that Timor-Leste is facing.
“Legitimate Politics” is the first goal of the “Peacebuilding and Statebuilding,” agreed upon by ... more “Legitimate Politics” is the first goal of the “Peacebuilding and Statebuilding,” agreed upon by the g7+ members in Monrovia. This is referred to later on as Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals, which were adopted at the Busan High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness, in November, 2011, as part of New Deal. Based on these goals also, the performance of so-called “fragile states” is measured against these goals. Basic assumption is that when state institutions do not enjoy legitimacy from their citizens, the perceived level of fragility increases. If we frame legitimacy in the context of fragility, this implies that fragile states do not have legitimacy or at best only weak legitimacy from their citizens. Indeed, in order to progress beyond fragility, fragile states must strengthen their legitimacy. But the history of the developing world tells us that acquiring legitimacy has proved to be a difficult pursuit. Even countries that have been independent for more than half a century still struggle with political legitimacy. This article discusses some issues related to political legitimacy in Timor-Leste by critically reflecting on our experience since 1999, and the current economic and political development.
Since 2005, Timor-Leste’s state receives multi-billion dollars from Petroleum Revenues. These rev... more Since 2005, Timor-Leste’s state receives multi-billion dollars from Petroleum Revenues. These revenues, on one side, enable the state to expand its programs by financing million-dollar infrastructure projects, social services, subsidizing veterans and elderly, and expand the state’s bureaucracy during the last five years. On the other side, it turns Timor-Leste into a Rentier State, confirmed by various quantitative data and qualitative analyses. The argument that Timor-Leste is a Rentier State based on various characteristics, namely independence of the state vis-a-vis domestic economy, composition of GDP, proportion of public expenditure as domestic economy, employment structure, and Dutch Disease. Due to this, it shapes the economic structure in its own unique way, and the characteristics in which the state and society interacts. This paper discusses some of the current economic policies and some of its impacts. Furthermore, this paper intends to provide some theoretical as well as conceptual framework to help understand the current political economy of Timor-Leste, and the challenges that it faces as a petro-dependent country.
The case of Timor-Leste proves once again how petroleum dependency turns out to be a curse rather... more The case of Timor-Leste proves once again how petroleum dependency turns out to be a curse rather than a blessing
The resignation of Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao, and the appointment of Rui Araujo to the Prime ... more The resignation of Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao, and the appointment of Rui Araujo to the Prime Ministership, once again, sends a positive signal about the maturity of Timor-Leste’s political institutions. This political stability though, needs to be translated into change in people’s real life.
Because of this background, terms like “fragile” and “failed” state are frequently used to label ... more Because of this background, terms like “fragile” and “failed” state are frequently used to label Timor-Leste. In the light of the current circumstances, the question emerges among Timorese and scholars is “what happened with the billions of dollars that have been spent under the banner of peace building?” This paper assumes that peace is not only about the absence of the war, but also about the conditions for democratic governance, rule of law, and sustainable development. Based upon this assumption and looking at the current circumstance, this paper argues that foreign aid has failed to establish conditions for long-term peace and stability in Timor-Leste, which is the main objective of international community over the last eleven years. Among various aspects that have contributed to its failure, this paper focuses attention on three aspects: decision-making, economic development, and community development.
This paper discusses about the structure of aid, and provides some of the structural issues deali... more This paper discusses about the structure of aid, and provides some of the structural issues dealing with aid in Timor-Leste
In the history of Timor-Leste, international aid has been an important element, particularly duri... more In the history of Timor-Leste, international aid has been an important element, particularly during the period between 1999 and 2005. At that time, donors’ financial support contributes to more than 50% of the total public expenditure. It is through this financial support that finances the reconstruction and development process, to pay the salary of the public employee. At present, financially, aid’s contribution toward the public expenditure is around 10%, and expected to decrease in the coming years. This trend, however, does not reduce the importance of development partnership. In fact, as the world is more integrated and interdependent, aid is not solely about financial aid. It is important to frame aid as a part of the relationship between country to country. Nowdays, knowledge sharing, people to people relations, and equal partnership become more important.
In July, Timorese voters will go to the polls for the second time this year to elect the country'... more In July, Timorese voters will go to the polls for the second time this year to elect the country's parliament. The recent presidential election, held on March 20, witnessed a clear victory by former parliament chief Francisco " Lú-Olo " Guterres, a candidate strongly backed by former resistance leader Xanana Gusmão. The result prolonged the debate that the country's leadership is still largely personality-driven, as it continues to be dominated by high-profile resistance leaders. In the parliamentary elections, to be held on July 22, 21 political parties are set to contest 65 seats in the national parliament. This election is particularly significant, as it will again test the strength of the new coalition of the two largest political parties in Timor-Leste the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (FRETILIN) and the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) that was formed in early 2015. This time around, the national mood is slightly different compared to previous elections. Unlike previous elections, where peace and security dominated the agenda, now, the most important policy issue may very well be the most important problem facing the country today: the economy. As recent polls conducted by the Asia Foundation (AF) and the International Republic Institute (IRI) indicated, the percentage of Timorese believing that the country is moving in the right direction is decreasing. The 2016 Tatoli! Public Opinion Poll by the AF showed that " Fewer people in 2016 feel that the country is going in the Right Direction versus the Wrong Direction than in 2014. In 2016 only 58 percent of respondents felt that the country is going in the right direction (compared to 73 percent in 2014); conversely 32 percent of respondents felt the country is going in the wrong direction (up from 25 percent in 2014). " Meanwhile, the IRI survey indicated that there has been a decrease of 15 percent, from 49 percent to 34 percent, in Timorese who think that things are going in the right direction for the country. At the institutional level, Timor-Leste's democratic institutions have been under constant criticism in recent times. The " national unity " government formed by the two major political forces – the CNRT and FRETILIN – from the government's point of view is a necessary pact to secure peace and stability in the long term. But, at the same time, one of the practical implications of such a move is the clear absence of a strong opposition. This is seen by many critics as a threat toward Timor-Leste's democratic institutions. The political context for the upcoming parliamentary election is interesting. The issue of sustainable economy is increasingly gaining attention from the Timorese. The AF poll showed that 32 percent of the respondents viewed economic issues, including diversifying Timor-Leste's economy, as the top priority in the country. The economy issue is not new, but it has been a persistent issue and that will continue to pose a challenge for whoever forms the next government. As one of the most oil-dependent countries in the world, one persistent discussion in Timor-Leste is how to avoid the resource curse. Several policies have been put in place to avoid the paradox of plenty, with the main intention being to use oil revenues as the basis to finance other developmental needs. All major parties are committed to tackling this issue. However, after 15 years of
There are numerous challenges that Timor-Leste is facing that people often talk about around the ... more There are numerous challenges that Timor-Leste is facing that people often talk about around the country and widely acknowledged across different spectrum of society. These challenges are not unique for Timor-Leste. However, when it is played down in Timor’s context, they are not as simple as its appear on the surface. It becomes more complicated. These are not the result of solely government’s lacking of coherent and integrated policy, or an already failed-state. These are the product of interactions of various factors and actors in the society. This article takes a look at two issues: institutional issue and petroleum dependency. Rather than viewing it as a product of a failed-state, these are challenges that Timor-Leste is facing.
“Legitimate Politics” is the first goal of the “Peacebuilding and Statebuilding,” agreed upon by ... more “Legitimate Politics” is the first goal of the “Peacebuilding and Statebuilding,” agreed upon by the g7+ members in Monrovia. This is referred to later on as Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals, which were adopted at the Busan High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness, in November, 2011, as part of New Deal. Based on these goals also, the performance of so-called “fragile states” is measured against these goals. Basic assumption is that when state institutions do not enjoy legitimacy from their citizens, the perceived level of fragility increases. If we frame legitimacy in the context of fragility, this implies that fragile states do not have legitimacy or at best only weak legitimacy from their citizens. Indeed, in order to progress beyond fragility, fragile states must strengthen their legitimacy. But the history of the developing world tells us that acquiring legitimacy has proved to be a difficult pursuit. Even countries that have been independent for more than half a century still struggle with political legitimacy. This article discusses some issues related to political legitimacy in Timor-Leste by critically reflecting on our experience since 1999, and the current economic and political development.
Since 2005, Timor-Leste’s state receives multi-billion dollars from Petroleum Revenues. These rev... more Since 2005, Timor-Leste’s state receives multi-billion dollars from Petroleum Revenues. These revenues, on one side, enable the state to expand its programs by financing million-dollar infrastructure projects, social services, subsidizing veterans and elderly, and expand the state’s bureaucracy during the last five years. On the other side, it turns Timor-Leste into a Rentier State, confirmed by various quantitative data and qualitative analyses. The argument that Timor-Leste is a Rentier State based on various characteristics, namely independence of the state vis-a-vis domestic economy, composition of GDP, proportion of public expenditure as domestic economy, employment structure, and Dutch Disease. Due to this, it shapes the economic structure in its own unique way, and the characteristics in which the state and society interacts. This paper discusses some of the current economic policies and some of its impacts. Furthermore, this paper intends to provide some theoretical as well as conceptual framework to help understand the current political economy of Timor-Leste, and the challenges that it faces as a petro-dependent country.
The case of Timor-Leste proves once again how petroleum dependency turns out to be a curse rather... more The case of Timor-Leste proves once again how petroleum dependency turns out to be a curse rather than a blessing
The resignation of Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao, and the appointment of Rui Araujo to the Prime ... more The resignation of Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao, and the appointment of Rui Araujo to the Prime Ministership, once again, sends a positive signal about the maturity of Timor-Leste’s political institutions. This political stability though, needs to be translated into change in people’s real life.
Because of this background, terms like “fragile” and “failed” state are frequently used to label ... more Because of this background, terms like “fragile” and “failed” state are frequently used to label Timor-Leste. In the light of the current circumstances, the question emerges among Timorese and scholars is “what happened with the billions of dollars that have been spent under the banner of peace building?” This paper assumes that peace is not only about the absence of the war, but also about the conditions for democratic governance, rule of law, and sustainable development. Based upon this assumption and looking at the current circumstance, this paper argues that foreign aid has failed to establish conditions for long-term peace and stability in Timor-Leste, which is the main objective of international community over the last eleven years. Among various aspects that have contributed to its failure, this paper focuses attention on three aspects: decision-making, economic development, and community development.
This paper discusses about the structure of aid, and provides some of the structural issues deali... more This paper discusses about the structure of aid, and provides some of the structural issues dealing with aid in Timor-Leste
In the history of Timor-Leste, international aid has been an important element, particularly duri... more In the history of Timor-Leste, international aid has been an important element, particularly during the period between 1999 and 2005. At that time, donors’ financial support contributes to more than 50% of the total public expenditure. It is through this financial support that finances the reconstruction and development process, to pay the salary of the public employee. At present, financially, aid’s contribution toward the public expenditure is around 10%, and expected to decrease in the coming years. This trend, however, does not reduce the importance of development partnership. In fact, as the world is more integrated and interdependent, aid is not solely about financial aid. It is important to frame aid as a part of the relationship between country to country. Nowdays, knowledge sharing, people to people relations, and equal partnership become more important.
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If we frame legitimacy in the context of fragility, this implies that fragile states do not have legitimacy or at best only weak legitimacy from their citizens. Indeed, in order to progress beyond fragility, fragile states must strengthen their legitimacy. But the history of the developing world tells us that acquiring legitimacy has proved to be a difficult pursuit. Even countries that have been independent for more than half a century still struggle with political legitimacy. This article discusses some issues related to political legitimacy in Timor-Leste by critically reflecting on our experience since 1999, and the current economic and political development.
If we frame legitimacy in the context of fragility, this implies that fragile states do not have legitimacy or at best only weak legitimacy from their citizens. Indeed, in order to progress beyond fragility, fragile states must strengthen their legitimacy. But the history of the developing world tells us that acquiring legitimacy has proved to be a difficult pursuit. Even countries that have been independent for more than half a century still struggle with political legitimacy. This article discusses some issues related to political legitimacy in Timor-Leste by critically reflecting on our experience since 1999, and the current economic and political development.