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Applied Decision Science for Organizations and Nation States

Turning Uncertainty Into Strategic Action

Acorn Pass helps leaders make better decisions under uncertainty through proven frameworks, strategic thinking tools, and collaborative problem-solving.

Rob Arnold - Strategic Consultant
Core Expertise

Navigate Complexity with Proven Frameworks

🎯

Risk Management

Make Risk Actionable

Transform uncertainty into clear, defensible decisions with frameworks that separate confidence from certainty.

Explore Risk →
🚀

Startup & Innovation

From Idea to Market

Navigate the journey from concept to customers with frameworks that synchronize product development with strategic market building.

Explore Startup →
✍️

Policy & Compliance

Compliance Without Compromise

Achieve regulatory alignment without losing competitive edge. Develop policy that balances uniformity with innovation.

Explore Compliance →
Strategic Advantage

Why Leaders Choose Acorn Pass

There is no bench, no junior pyramid, and no hand-offs.

When you work with Acorn Pass, you work directly with Rob Arnold, founder & principal consultant

Rob has spent his career working at the intersection of:

  • Risk Management & Cybersecurity
  • Nation State Risk Management & Policy Development
  • Structured Innovation and Lean Startup

He works independently by design — allowing clients to engage directly with the person doing the thinking, analysis, and delivery.

Startup to Nation State
Advising all levels
Business, State & Local, Federal: Congress, NIST, CISA
Global
Risk Management
Critical Infrastructure, Supply Chain, Geopolitical
20+
Years Experience
Government • Enterprise • Startups

US Congress

Formal testimony with policy and strategy advice presented to the House Committee on Small Business

Homeland Security

Cabinet-level advisory DHS, FBI, DOE, etc. Strategic Advisor on Cybersecurity and Risk Management for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)

Critical Infrastructure

All of government, nation state advisory on the protection of critical assets and functions for the US and MENA allies.

Business Development

Serial entrepreneurship: lean startup, venture capital raises and investments, M&A advisory.

Cybersecurity

Economic and operational optimization of resource allocations that balance risk against opportunities.

Policy & Compliance

Organizational and nation-state policy development around cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and critical infrastructure.

Frameworks & Tools

Featured Projects

Frameworks, ventures, and tools designed to translate complexity into actionable clarity

🏆 Flagship Framework

UC2 Framework

Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation — A foundational decision framework separating confidence from certainty in risk estimation.

Decision Science Risk Management Policy Design
Explore UC2 Framework
🚀 Startup Strategy

Lean Chasm

Synchronizing product development with strategic market building. A hybrid framework combining Lean Startup and Crossing the Chasm methodologies.

Startup Strategy Go-to-Market Product Development
Explore Lean Chasm
⚡ Active Venture

Callibros

Green hydrogen production venture bringing clean energy infrastructure to market. Applying innovation frameworks, policy navigation, and GTM strategy to accelerate energy transition.

Clean Energy Innovation Policy Navigation
View All Ventures

Ready to Talk Strategy?

Let's discuss how these frameworks and approaches can help your organization make better decisions under uncertainty.