Risk Factors Analysis and Prediction Model Establishment of Intestinal Metaplasia or Dysplasia in Patients With Chronic Atrophic Gastritis: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study

Objective: To investigate the risk factors and construct a prediction model of chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) patients with intestinal metaplasia or dysplasia.

Method: The clinical data of 450 patients with CAG who were diagnosed and treated in the Department of Gastroenterology of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from June 2016 to February 2022 were collected. Single and multiple factors logistic regression analysis were used to explore the risk factors of intestinal metaplasia or dysplasia in patients of training cohort. Then, we constructed a model to predict the onset of intestinal metaplasia or dysplasia based on the data of training cohort, following which we tested the model in an external validation cohort of 193 patients from a local university teaching hospital. The ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model.

Result: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori, HP) infection, pepsinogen I, gastrin-17, and the number of lesions were found to be independent rick factors of the model. The liner prediction model showed excellent predictive value in both training cohort and validation cohort.

Conclusion: HP infection, pepsinogen I, gastrin-17, and the number of lesions are independent risk factors for intestinal metaplasia or dysplasia in patients with CAG. The prediction model constructed based on these factors has a high accuracy and excellent calibration, which can provide a great basis for condition assessment and individualized treatment of the patients.